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How Many Stats Guru's Predicted That....

Old#5fan

By Old#5fan
in Orioles Talk

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mefogus Major Leaguer Cup of Coffee

mefogus

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This is an attempt at humor. I am trying to bring some levity to the often 30-page threads wherein "stat-guys" and "game-watchers" scream at each other.

Game watchers,

Now that Luke Scott has hit a ball into the upper deck at Yankee stadium, do you still think that he will not hit a lot of homeruns this year? Clearly, he has the power to be a 25-30-35 HR threat, and that single solitary AB should show us all that he is not poised to start cranking the ball with regularity. After that shot; how could anyone deny his Ruthian power?

Miguel who?

-m

Closing remarks. The longest HR I have ever seen in my life was hit by Rene Gonzalez -- I believe it was his only one of that season.

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BRobinsonfan All-Star

BRobinsonfan

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Man, Scott's shown a lot of power as of late. It's almost as if his achilles is feeling better. Hmm... odd. Who woulda thunk it. :rolleyes:

Yes... but just because according to some "mumbo jumbo statistics" that supposedly show that he has hit for power both in the minors and the majors, my 35 years of watching baseball teaches me 1) that minor league numbers don't translate into major league numbers and 2) that being able to hit well in one league doesn't mean he'll be able to hit well in the other. And 3) stats don't mean anything because they can't be used to predict what will happen 100% of the time.

Therefore, he will crash and burn... unless he doesn't... in which case forget number 1 and 2 above because it was a simple matter of his hamstring bothering him and I now observe with my own eyes that he's got a pretty good power swing.

N.B. My tounge is planted firmly in my cheek :D :laughlol: :D :laughlol:

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Old#5fan Hangout Grand Counsel

Old#5fan

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Yes... but just because according to some "mumbo jumbo statistics" that supposedly show that he has hit for power both in the minors and the majors, my 35 years of watching baseball teaches me 1) that minor league numbers don't translate into major league numbers and 2) that being able to hit well in one league doesn't mean he'll be able to hit well in the other. And 3) stats don't mean anything because they can't be used to predict what will happen 100% of the time.

Therefore, he will crash and burn... unless he doesn't... in which case forget number 1 and 2 above because it was a simple matter of his hamstring bothering him and I now observe with my own eyes that he's got a pretty good power swing.

N.B. My tounge is planted firmly in my cheek :D :laughlol: :D :laughlol:

Hey, that monster shot has now sold me that Luke Scott, indeed when healthy has plenty of power. After seeing this with my own two eyes I believe he is very capable of hitting 25-30 homers unless they start pitching around him. I had no idea that he had an injury affecting his power until learning so on this thread.

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  • 3 weeks later...
BRobinsonfan All-Star

BRobinsonfan

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Jay Payton would have four homers as of May 17th in a reserve LF role and Luke Scott three as the starting LFer?

This is why I think prediction of what will happen by strictly using past stats is an exercise in futility and essentially a worthless endeavor and not any better than a guess. Perfect example right here.:)

Payton is more of a homer/power guy this season than Scott. Why is this so statistical experts? Some where ready to swap Payton for Terrero just a couple of days ago. :P

Why, Why WHY?:laughlol::scratchchinhmm::eek:;)

Bump

And we know he's not because of past performance.

Two home runs for Scott today... giving him 9 so far... Payton still stuck at 4.

Chalk up another one for the "stat guys."

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BaltimoreTerp Hangout Grand Counsel

BaltimoreTerp

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Bump

And we know he's not because of past performance.

Two home runs for Scott today... giving him 9 so far... Payton still stuck at 4.

Chalk up another one for the "stat guys."

Well, yeah. Now that he's healthy.

Apparently he was injured in the preseason, though...

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  • 5 months later...
BRobinsonfan All-Star

BRobinsonfan

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No, the numbers I provided added up to 18-24 for Scott, not 21-27. And the numbers cited for Payton add up to 7-10 - and I was being very generous on that.

If you really think Payton will hit 14 home runs in a part time role, then I have some ocean front property in Kansas that I'd like to sell real cheap.

One other thing, if you're going to use what you seem to consider to be derogatory term, then the least you could do is spell it properly. The term you're trying to use is Stats Gurus, not Stats Guru's. No need for the apostrophe.

Scott finished with 23 and Payton with 7.

Wow. Amazing! How'd you do that? :D

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byrdz Hangout Veteran Council

byrdz

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Ah yes, this is oldy but goody thread!

This is why I think prediction of what will happen by strictly using past stats is an exercise in futility and essentially a worthless endeavor and not any better than a guess. Perfect example right here.:)

Classic stuff all the way

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