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How Many Stats Guru's Predicted That....


Old#5fan

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I've seen the foolishness of my ways, and I've already stopped using all numbers. I now only describe baseball with poetry, and I predict the outcome of at bats and games using the patterns in my wife's tea leaves at breakfast.
Finally! :mwahaha:Great to hear this, but please spare us the poetry.:drek:
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I think you "stats gurus" are setting yourselves up for possible failure (except for Drungo, of course, who has recanted his foolish ways). You all seem to be arguing that the end-of-year stats will back up your side, but the fact is they might not. That does not mean using stats to predict future performance is stupid, but that is exactly what OldFan will say when he bumps this thread at the end of the year when Payton has two more HRs than Scott.

The correct argument, I think, is to point out how many cases fit predictions based on past performance. It was the "stats gurus" that predicted that Luis wouldn't keep up his high BA from last year, using his minor league numbers (of all things).

When the dust settles, there will be many things that people do not correctly predict (Brady Anderson hitting 50 HRs or Andruw Jones with a .311 OBP in 2007). "Stats gurus" will get some of these things completely wrong. Maybe someone's "gut feeling" will predict something like this. But the fact is, over the long haul, using past performance (of a player) and typical aging trends (of that player's peers) to predict future performance is going to result in much more accurate predictions that "gut feelings."

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I think you "stats gurus" are setting yourselves up for possible failure (except for Drungo' date=' of course, who has recanted his foolish ways). You all seem to be arguing that the end-of-year stats will back up your side, but the fact is they might not. That does not mean using stats to predict future performance is stupid, but that is exactly what OldFan will say when he bumps this thread at the end of the year when Payton has two more HRs than Scott.

The correct argument, I think, is to point out how many cases fit predictions based on past performance. It was the "stats gurus" that predicted that Luis wouldn't keep up his high BA from last year, using his minor league numbers (of all things).

When the dust settles, there will be many things that people do not correctly predict (Brady Anderson hitting 50 HRs or Andruw Jones with a .311 OBP in 2007). "Stats gurus" will get some of these things completely wrong. Maybe someone's "gut feeling" will predict something like this. But the fact is, over the long haul, using past performance (of a player) and typical aging trends (of that player's peers) to predict future performance is going to result in much more accurate predictions that "gut feelings."[/quote']

I think if you look closely, none of our stat heads here believe statistics are an entirely infallible predictor of the future. The more reasonable of the bunch lend creedence to the facets of baseball that stats don't cover, largely identified in the debate as "gut feelings".

Neither stat-heads nor those invested in gut feelings are going to be absolutely right, but (as you've stated and I agree) basing an opinion or making a prediction based on statistics is going to render you right more often than betting the farm on instincts and gut feelings.

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I think you "stats gurus" are setting yourselves up for possible failure (except for Drungo' date=' of course, who has recanted his foolish ways). [i']You all seem to be arguing that the end-of-year stats will back up your side, but the fact is they might not.[/i] That does not mean using stats to predict future performance is stupid, but that is exactly what OldFan will say when he bumps this thread at the end of the year when Payton has two more HRs than Scott.

The correct argument, I think, is to point out how many cases fit predictions based on past performance. It was the "stats gurus" that predicted that Luis wouldn't keep up his high BA from last year, using his minor league numbers (of all things).

When the dust settles, there will be many things that people do not correctly predict (Brady Anderson hitting 50 HRs or Andruw Jones with a .311 OBP in 2007). "Stats gurus" will get some of these things completely wrong. Maybe someone's "gut feeling" will predict something like this. But the fact is, over the long haul, using past performance (of a player) and typical aging trends (of that player's peers) to predict future performance is going to result in much more accurate predictions that "gut feelings."

Yeah, they sure hate to admit it though don't they? They would rather get all cynical and sarcastic. I actually find it amusing to say the least. The fact of the matter is stat gurus are wrong probably more often than right in trying to predict stats from year to year. They simply have no more chance of doing it than any fan who mades a guess based on keen observation and common sense. Nobody can say that they expected Payton to hit more homers in Scott in fewer at bats at a quarter of the season. Nobody. So get mad, irritated or be sarcastic, it makes no difference. The truth is baseball is a crap shoot for anyone when trying to predict it. That is what makes the games so interesting to me.

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Yeah, the sure hate to admit it though don't they? They would rather get all cynical and sarcastic. I actually find it amusing to say the least. The fact of the matter is stat gurus are wrong probably more often than right in trying to predict stats from year to year. They simply have no more chance of doing it than any fan who mades a guess based on keen observation and common sense. Nobody can say that they expected Payton to hit more homers in Scott in fewer at bats at a quarter of the season. Nobody. So get mad, irritated or be sarcastic, it makes no difference. The truth is baseball is a crap shoot for anyone when trying to predict it. That is what makes the games so interesting to me.

You forgot to read the rest of his post... how convenient... but from my observational analysis of your past posting history... also very predictable!

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You forgot to read the rest of his post... how convenient... but from my observational analysis of your past posting history... also very predictable!

Oh my, it's come to this. Here it is the great one's 71st birthday and we have Brobinsonfan and Old#5fan duking it out on a message board.

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You forgot to read the rest of his post... how convenient... but from my observational analysis of your past posting history... also very predictable!

I read it all. The question is did you read all of mine? I stand by my stance that predicting baseball stats is a crapshoot for anyone on this planet, stats guru, expert analyst or just observant fan of over 40 years or more. Crapshoot period for anyone. This is what (at least to me) makes following the game so interesting. The great unknown of what is going to happen in a at bat, inning, game or season.

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This is why I think prediction of what will happen by strictly using past stats is an exercise in futility and essentially a worthless endeavor and not any better than a guess. Perfect example right here.:)

Forget Payton! How about Zito? How many stat guys would have predicted that he would wind up being the worst pitcher to ever play the game? My guess: none. He is on pace to lose every single game (wait a sec... `on pace` sounds a lot like that sabre mumbo-jumbo). Payton may be the final straw in the sabremetric coffin, but Zito burns the body.

-m

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Forget Payton! How about Zito? How many stat guys would have predicted that he would wind up being the worst pitcher to ever play the game? My guess: none. He is on pace to lose every single game (wait a sec... `on pace` sounds a lot like that sabre mumbo-jumbo). Payton may be the final straw in the sabremetric coffin, but Zito burns the body.

-m

I can't tell if this is a joke or not but if it isn't...

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=5894

You need a subscription to read the whole thing but you can get the gist within the first paragraph, plenty of "stat guys" saw Zito declining.

If you did any reasearch (aka a 10 second search on google) you would know this but instead you're just spouting speculation.

I'll never understand why thoes who dislike stats have it out for people who do use them, just ignore them if you hate them so much.

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That may be what you think we're arguing, but it truly isn't.

I will take my method over whatever method is being used by OF any day of the week, and I am 100% positive that I will be right more often. Please note that I did not say I will be right every time. Fact is, the two sides probably agree with each other more often than not. Unfortunately some people like to claim superiority at certain times, whether it is warranted or not (why is it that those who do this seem to come from his side more often than not?).

Reference Scott and Payton. I am not the least bit concerned that Jay Payton will hit more home runs than Luke Scott this year (barring injury, of course). I will give up the use of stats completely if he does.

I agree with this, but all I need to do to form this opinion, is watch the 2 of them bat for the past 6 weeks. I would need to look at stats to decide who I'd rather have, Markakis or Zimmerman.

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Through May of last year, Scott had 4 homers in 128 at bats.

So far this year, Scott has 3 homers in 122 at bats.

Last year, Scott hit 18 homers in 369 at bats.

I hate to use facts in a ridiculous thread like this but what the hell.

But the stat gurus predicted that Scott would have a billion homeruns by now and Payton would only have a million. They were wrong...Stats suck.:wedge:

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If you did any reasearch (aka a 10 second search on google) you would know this but instead you're just spouting speculation.

I live on speculation. What else is there? OPS? VORP (or BLORP, whatever it's called). BABIPERTAYHSGGDTGGET?

-m

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