How Many Stats Guru's Predicted That....

[Lt Melmo]

Well since you "observed" Luke Scott hitting 18 HR in 300 some-odd ABs last year, what makes you so certain this year that he can't do it again?

He didn't "observe" them. He needs to physically see the swing that resulted in every single homer, exactly where every homer lands, whether the homers were caught by people in the stands or not, and whether or not the pitcher had a "soft face."

[RShack]

I can't believe i'm even wasting my time with you, you'll never open your mind to consider another point of view or admit you may just be flat out wrong. And by may, I mean are flat out wrong.

Read any good books lately?

;-)

<img src=http://ecx.images-amazon.com/images/I/51X9tB-RL9L._SL500_BO2,204,203,200_PIsitb-dp-500-arrow,TopRight,45,-64_OU01_AA240_SH20_.jpg></img>

[Old#5fan]

Well since you "observed" Luke Scott hitting 18 HR in 300 some-odd ABs last year, what makes you so certain this year that he can't do it again?

At the risk of being redundant as I have already answered this question a number of times on different threads previously, the answer is I think Scott will have lower home run totals because of switching leagues and teams. Also, I genuinely like Luke Scott, and I would prefer him starting anyday over Payton. I even think Scott is better defensively. This whole thing just came about because I read some insane predictions that Scott would hit 30-40 homers and I thought it was ludicrous to predict that for a guy switching leagues other than someone named Frank Robinson. I also thought posters clamoring for Luis Terrero to replace Payton were being ridiculous as well and still do. I happen to think I am right on both counts.

[El Gordo]

At the risk of being redundant as I have already answered this question a number of times on different threads previously, the answer is I think Scott will have lower home run totals because of switching leagues and teams. Also, I genuinely like Luke Scott, and I would prefer him starting anyday over Payton. I even think Scott is better defensively. This whole thing just came about because I read some insane predictions that Scott would hit 30-40 homers and I thought it was ludicrous to predict that for a guy switching leagues other than someone named Frank Robinson. I also thought posters clamoring for Luis Terrero to replace Payton were being ridiculous as well and still do. I happen to think I am right on both counts.

Why do you think switching leagues is such a big deal for a hitter? Terrero is a better fielder than Payton, is cheaper and hits for more power, so he would be an upgrade IMO.

[The Rick]

Why do you think switching leagues is such a big deal for a hitter? Terrero is a better fielder than Payton, is cheaper and hits for more power, so he would be an upgrade IMO.

The funny thing is that he was all over Scott for switching league in the off-season, then when he got off to a hot start he eated crow about how he was wrong. Now he's flip-flopping again because Scott's since then come back to earth.

[byrdz]

Old#5 fan said before the season started that Luke Scott wouldn't hit more than 14 HR's on the season. I have 100 bucks and Paypal account that says otherwise. :wedge: PM for the account info...

[Pickles]

What's hilarious about this thread is about two weeks into the season, when Luke Scott was raping AL pitchers, OldFan came on here and said that Scott was better than he imagined he was going to be. Now, a few weeks later, after Scott's been sick for two weeks and cooling off, this sociopath tries to start a "I was right all along thread".

And, trust me, sociopath is the proper terminology. If any of you were members at Sunspot you'll know exactly what I mean. How this troll manages to avoid being banned is beyond me.

P.S. Go ahead and neg rep me OldFan and tell me to "go back to the snitches at sunspot" again. You're a real internet warrior.

[BRobinsonfan]

So that means automatically that Scott will duplicate his past season? I think anyone that is sane would know that is totally untrue. If so, how would stats experts account for Brady Anderson's one year of 50 home runs where he never even sniffed 40 before or after?

Your "facts" are utterly worthless. It is far more likely that Scott won't hit 18 homers in 369 at bats or anything close. Very, very few players are that consistent from year to year. Hank Aaron and AROD come to mind but they are rare superstar types. You are living in dreamland if you think Scott is going to be that consistent.

Ah ha! I think I finally have discovered your problem. You totally misunderstand what we utilize statistics for.

No... (see bold above) That does not automatically mean that Scott will duplicate his past season. We understand that there are plenty of deviations from the norm in baseball... and that any given day Luis Hernandez could surprise us and hit a homerun... we completely understand that there is unpredictability in each and every play and each and every at bat... But what you fail to understand... or more likely... don't care to admit because you have too much fun baiting us... is that over the course of a season you know that Tejada is almost certainly going to hit many more home runs that Luis Herndandez? Why do you know this? Because of his past performance as described by statistics. That's pretty much all the "stat gurus" are saying.

Try this experiment... Player A hits .330 with power against left handers... (over the course of 1500 ML at bats). Player B hits .195 with almost no power against left handers (over the course of 1500 ML at bats) You've got a left hander on the mound that Player A has had great success against and which Player B (in an equal number of at bats has never hit) Who do you want to start against this pitcher. (Let's say they're both DH's so you eliminate any Luis Hernandez second coming of Mark Belanger fielding factor). Who do you honestly want to start that game and why?

Player A may go out there and have bad day and strike out three times and hurt himself and the third at bat requiring player B to take his place and he may promptly go out and hit a homerun against this crafty left... that doesn't mean that Player A was the wrong choice... and nor does it mean that the statistical approach was wrong... it just means that on that day on that at bat... Player B was better... But if I'm the manager... and all other things are equal... Player A gets that start everytime.

[Dr. FLK]

The bet should be who will homer more times per at/bat not have more homers. Any kind of bet based on total numbers when the players are comparable but one gets many more chances would be a sucker bet. :rolleyes:You are the one who is "unbelieveable" if you think anyone would be that big of a sucker to take that bet. I wasn't born yesterday.:laughlol:

That sounds like a statistic to me, and we all know that they prove nothing. Maybe you should bet on who "looks like a pro"...or who has the prettier swing...or who makes the better pancakes. Something more abstract.

[Mark Carver]

The funny thing is that he was all over Scott for switching league in the off-season, then when he got off to a hot start he eated crow about how he was wrong. Now he's flip-flopping again because Scott's since then come back to earth.

Ding, ding, ding...

Bob Barker "We have a winner Johnny... and tell him what he has won!"

Johnny "Why it's a tank full of gasoline. Worth $5000!"

:laughlol:

[Old#5fan]

What's hilarious about this thread is about two weeks into the season, when Luke Scott was raping AL pitchers, OldFan came on here and said that Scott was better than he imagined he was going to be. Now, a few weeks later, after Scott's been sick for two weeks and cooling off, this sociopath tries to start a "I was right all along thread".

And, trust me, sociopath is the proper terminology. If any of you were members at Sunspot you'll know exactly what I mean. How this troll manages to avoid being banned is beyond me.

P.S. Go ahead and neg rep me OldFan and tell me to "go back to the snitches at sunspot" again. You're a real internet warrior.

Sounds like another sore loser from Sunspot who couldn't handle how bad I made him look over there when I made certain unpopular but spot on predictions such as letting G-MattJr and Cust get away were huge mistakes, Ainsworth was damaged goods and would never amount to squat, Bigbie was a bum, Roberts was twice the player of Hairston, not to mention a certain Ravens QB I GUARANTEED WOULD NOT MAKE IT AS AN NFL STARTER. Go back and tell your buddies the truth, and that is they railroaded me off that site for no reason other than they couldn't stand that I made them (and you) look bad repeatedly. :laughlol::wedge:

[ChaosLex]

What's hilarious about this thread is about two weeks into the season, when Luke Scott was raping AL pitchers, OldFan came on here and said that Scott was better than he imagined he was going to be. Now, a few weeks later, after Scott's been sick for two weeks and cooling off, this sociopath tries to start a "I was right all along thread".

And, trust me, sociopath is the proper terminology. If any of you were members at Sunspot you'll know exactly what I mean. How this troll manages to avoid being banned is beyond me.

P.S. Go ahead and neg rep me OldFan and tell me to "go back to the snitches at sunspot" again. You're a real internet warrior.

The ignore feature is your friend. I haven't had to listen to his nonsensical rantings for a couple weeks now, and I couldn't be happier.

[Old#5fan]

Ding, ding, ding...

Bob Barker "We have a winner Johnny... and tell him what he has won!"

Johnny "Why it's a tank full of gasoline. Worth $5000!"

:laughlol:

I am not "flip flopping" on Scott. I like Luke Scott. I think he adds more positives by himself to this team than Tejada, not to mention the addition of Albers and Sarfate. I think that was a superb trade on the Orioles side. I posted this thread to show how wrong these stats gurus were in proclaiming certain predictions regarding Luke and his home run production as well as Payton and his. So far, they are so far off the mark it is humorous and this illustrates my point that using past stats to predict anything in the future in regard to specific production is a crap shoot and pretty much no better than guessing by any fan without even looking at the past stats.

[Old#5fan]

The ignore feature is your friend. I haven't had to listen to his nonsensical rantings for a couple weeks now, and I couldn't be happier.

How in the world do you "listen" to "nonsensical rantings" or anything else when reading a "written" post on an internet message board? I did'nt know my voice could be heard when I type something?:scratchchinhmm:

[safoster]

How in the world do you "listen" to "nonsensical rantings" or anything else when reading a "written" post on an internet message board? I did'nt know my voice could be heard when I type something?:scratchchinhmm:

Why are you arguing semantics?

This thread has degenerated to total crap. I vote it should be locked.