How Many Stats Guru's Predicted That....

[Tony-OH]

Jay Payton would have four homers as of May 17th in a reserve LF role and Luke Scott three as the starting LFer?

This is why I think prediction of what will happen by strictly using past stats is an exercise in futility and essentially a worthless endeavor and not any better than a guess. Perfect example right here.

Payton is more of a homer/power guy this season than Scott. Why is this so statistical experts? Some where ready to swap Payton for Terrero just a couple of days ago.

Why, Why WHY?:laughlol::scratchchinhmm:

How many non-stat guys predicted this either? This may possibly be the dumbest conclusion I've ever seen on here.

[Old#5fan]

How many non-stat guys predicted this either? This may possibly be the dumbest conclusion I've ever seen on here.

That is my point. Nobody would predict this, yet it is reality! Baseball is so very unpredictable which is why it is so fascinating to watch and follow.

[sector7g]

How many non-stat guys predicted this either? This may possibly be the dumbest conclusion I've ever seen on here.

You obviously missed the discussion about baseball players performance being effected by their names....

[O'sFanThruJune]

That is my point. Nobody would predict this, yet it is reality!

<img src="http://static.flickr.com/67/203175590_11256a8504_m.jpg">

[BRobinsonfan]

Old#5Fan,

I notice you've totally ignored my "Player A vs Payer B" exercise I asked you about earlier in the thread.

Why does that not surprise me?

[Old#5fan]

Old#5Fan,

I notice you've totally ignored my "Player A vs Payer B" exercise I asked you about earlier in the thread.

Why does that not surprise me?

I didn't respond because your example was so over-simplified it was an insult to my intelligence. I have been watching baseball for over 40 years. The stuff you are explaining is like you are trying to explain baseball to a second grader. I passed Baseball 101 45 years ago. Get off your high horse and realize what level of a fan you are engaging with buddy or I will ignore you.

[ChaosLex]

<img src="http://static.flickr.com/67/203175590_11256a8504_m.jpg">

Paige is the man.

[Crazysilver03]

I didn't responde because your example was so over-simplified it was an insult to my intelligence. I have been watching baseball for over 40 years. The stuff you are trying to explain is like you are trying to explain baseball to a second grader. Get off your high horse and realize what level of a fan you are engaging with buddy.

Someone who is condescending towards a different view point.

I understand that you base your opinion on what you see, even if you may be blind because you are an OldFan. Others like to look at statistics.

The big difference is that no one uses statistics solely. If we did, there would be no reason to watch the games. Stats are a good predictor, there is a high correlation.

Stats arent going to predict 100%, BUT they do predict around 70%. That is a damn fine number. There is never going to be anything to predict something 100%, but there are some stats that are good predictors, such as doubles will turn into homeruns, but you cant say triples are going to turn into doubles.

You are trying to attack the people that use stats, but YOU are the one making the argument against stats people SIMPLISTIC.

[The Wedge]

Okay, now Pavlov is sitting up in his grave, scratching his head, and thinking to himself "even my dogs weren't quite this predictable..."

[Old#5fan]

Someone who is condescending towards a different view point.

I understand that you base your opinion on what you see, even if you may be blind because you are an OldFan. Others like to look at statistics.

The big difference is that no one uses statistics solely. If we did, there would be no reason to watch the games. Stats are a good predictor, there is a high correlation.

Stats arent going to predict 100%, BUT they do predict around 70%. That is a damn fine number. There is never going to be anything to predict something 100%, but there are some stats that are good predictors, such as doubles will turn into homeruns, but you cant say triples are going to turn into doubles.

You are trying to attack the people that use stats, but YOU are the one making the argument against stats people SIMPLISTIC.

Here is where I must strongly disagree. I am much less condescending towards any stats-minded people than they are to me. Its not even close.

[Flip217]

Get off your high horse and realize what level of a fan you are engaging with buddy or I will ignore you.

Level #1: Has seen a baseball game, enjoys it, wants to see more.

Level #2: Has started rooting for the hometown team, follows particular players.

Level #3: Developed interest in farm system, has particular ideas on in-game strategy.

Level #4: Avidly reads books, articles, websites, etc. to further knowledge of the game, stats used to measure and evaluate, and engages in debates with fellow fans on a variety of topics.

Level Old #5: Has been watching baseball for over 40 years, tells anyone who'll listen that they've been watching baseball for over 40 years, dismisses all opinions by people who haven't been watching baseball for at least 40 years, refuses to examine own beliefs they've held on to for over 40 years, and wants you to get off his lawn.

[Old#5fan]

Okay, now Pavlov is sitting up in his grave, scratching his head, and thinking to himself "even my dogs weren't quite this predictable..."

Wow, 13,000 posts! Congratulations! And my wife thinks I waste a lot of time on here!:laughlol:

[TyCobb]

Here is where I must strongly disagree. I am much less condescending towards any stats-minded people than they are to me. Its not even close.

An eye for an eye, until we are all blind

.............

[ChaosLex]

Okay, now Pavlov is sitting up in his grave, scratching his head, and thinking to himself "even my dogs weren't quite this predictable..."

I'm just here to talk about Woody Paige.

[Flip217]

Okay, now Pavlov is sitting up in his grave, scratching his head, and thinking to himself "even my dogs weren't quite this predictable..."

I don't think his dogs had this much fun answering the bell.

I haven't had this much fun since that bad rash last summer.