An inconvenient truth

[FanSince88]

We made the playoffs without Manny for 2/3 of the 2012 season.  

We made the playoffs without Manny for half of the 2014 season, and advanced to the ALCS against three Cy Young winners without Manny in 2014.  

Manny OPSed was sub-.760 in both 2012 and 2014 when he did play.  

We missed the playoffs in 2013 and 2015 with Manny playing 156 and 162 games.  

Look, clearly Manny is a huge asset to the team.  157 games from Manny was a necessary (but not sufficient) factor in our 2016 WC run.  

But the Orioles can be a successful franchise without him if we play our cards right.  We don't need to spend insane money on him that will prevent the team from keeping or acquiring any other pieces around him.  

I like Manny, but not enough to want our team to be a one-trick pony.  Paying him $35 million a year for ten years won't buy him extra at bats in the lineup, or enable him to play two infield positions at once.     

[weams]

Manny is a star. I would like to see him for two more seasons. 

[RayC]

I agree with most of this analysis. Trading Manny at the right time is critical, because we really need to identify the MLB ready players and prospects that we want to obtain in the deal.

Same thing goes for Jones / Britton.

I don't buy this talk (on the radio) that not signing Manny to a long term contract is a recognition that the organization is not committed to excellence. Signing Manny to a 10 year $300-$400 million contract will put us in a similar position as the Ravens with Flacco's contract and the salary cap problems.

[UpstateNYfan]

Exactly. He is a very good player, but get's to bat about 1/9 of the time and defensively probably less than 20% of the time. He's nice to have, but you have to have other parts. That is why if you can get a blockbuster trade for him, those pieces can have a greater impact on the whole team than the individual player can. Remember how we got AJ and Tillman??

[wildcard]

Manny is a great player.  Probably a Hall of Fame player.  If the O's could afford to keep him for the rest of his career, I would love it.  But the MLB system is built against that happening. So the O's have to do the best they can to stay competitive when Manny moves on.

[backwardsk]

Fact:  We haven't been to the World Series since Joe Nolan was the backup catcher.  You have to bring him back.

Cleveland went to the World Series with a payroll under $100M.

Why can't DD or whoever takes over build a winning 23 man roster for $100M supported by Manny and Davis?

[Can_of_corn]

7 minutes ago, backwardsk said:

Fact:  We haven't been to the World Series since Joe Nolan was the backup catcher.  You have to bring him back.

Cleveland went to the World Series with a payroll under $100M.

Why can't DD or whoever takes over build a winning 23 man roster for $100M supported by Manny and Davis?

Because Dan traded Hader, Davies and ERod and forfeited picks for Uballdo and Gallardo.

You need a core of young, cost controlled talent.  The O's no longer have that.

[ArtVanDelay]

10 minutes ago, backwardsk said:

Fact:  We haven't been to the World Series since Joe Nolan was the backup catcher.  You have to bring him back.

Cleveland went to the World Series with a payroll under $100M.

Why can't DD or whoever takes over build a winning 23 man roster for $100M supported by Manny and Davis?

You probably need better than the 29th best farm system to do that.

[backwardsk]

I don't buy it.  

We won 89 games last year while filling out the roster with at least 6 pre-arb guys from one of the worst farm systems.

I have no doubt that in 2019 we can get contributions from pre-arb guys at catcher, two to three bullpen spots, fifth OF, DH, utility IF (6-7).  And if we catch a break, 1-2 rotation spots (Sedlock, Harvey, and Akin).  So call that 7 players under $4M.

$96M to spend 16 players, including $9M for O'Day.  So $87 for 15 players.  Schoop and Givens will also be under control.  

Filling out a competitive roster with the remainder is definitely doable.

[Yardball85]

41 minutes ago, weams said:

Manny is a star. I would like to see him for two more seasons. 

Seems like you are willing to accept what would by far be the worst-case scenario. The OP makes a good point - he probably will not be quite worth the amount of money he demands. Trade him for a king's ransom if the team is not in contention come July. There is no good reason to keep him here for the next two years and simply lose him in FA.

[weams]

5 minutes ago, Yardball85 said:

Seems like you are willing to accept what would by far be the worst-case scenario. The OP makes a good point - he probably will not be quite worth the amount of money he demands. Trade him for a king's ransom if the team is not in contention come July. There is no good reason to keep him here for the next two years and simply lose him in FA.

If the team is good for those years I'd be ok with enjoying his time here.  Manny will decline some day. Probably not as an Oriole. Many kings ransoms turned into fools gold as well. 

If the team goes bad, I am all for trading him. 

[backwardsk]

8 minutes ago, Yardball85 said:

Seems like you are willing to accept what would by far be the worst-case scenario. The OP makes a good point - he probably will not be quite worth the amount of money he demands. Trade him for a king's ransom if the team is not in contention come July. There is no good reason to keep him here for the next two years and simply lose him in FA.

Which team, what ransom?  Name names.

[weams]

2 minutes ago, backwardsk said:

Which team, what ransom?  Name names.

 

12 minutes ago, Yardball85 said:

 The OP makes a good point - he probably will not be quite worth the amount of money he demands. 

A very small proportion of mega deals are worth anywhere close to their cost. Even if the way of valuing them is by WAR. 

[Yardball85]

Someone in contention will pay for Machado. Look at the huge packages Chapman and Miller field for the Yankees. For relief pitchers. So, which team?

The Dodgers, moving Turner to second. The Cubs, in a deal for Russell+. The Rangers, Mets, Mariners... plenty of teams would pay a "ransom" for a player of Manny's caliber, just like the Cubs and Indians did last year for two relievers. Doesn't take that much creativity to think of some options. 

[wildcard]

3 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

Because Dan traded Hader, Davies and ERod and forfeited picks for Uballdo and Gallardo.

You need a core of young, cost controlled talent.  The O's no longer have that.

This is a really tired argument.

If the O's do not trade Hader for Bud Norris they may not have gone to the playoff in 2014 when Bud went 15-8.

If the O's don't trade for ERod  for Miller they may not have won enough games to win the division  and beat the Tigers in the division series,

And  so what if they traded 26th round draft choice, 155 pound  Davies.   They kept 1st rounder Gausman and Bundy. 3rd round Wright who went 9-1 with a 2.22 ERA  at AAA that year, and 10th rounder  Wilson.   GM don't get the benefit of hindsight.

In 1983 the O's acquired  Todd  Cruz to play 3rd base on June 30th after rookie Leo Hernandez, Aurelio  Rodriguez and Glenn Guliver could not handle the position.  So acquirig players to fill holes in mid season  is not a Duquette invention.

GMs want to win.  Fans want to win.  So  when  Dan does what it  takes  to win more games than  anyone else over the last 5 years,  it doesn't seem right to complain about who he traded to accomplish the teams success.   Its a heck of  a lot better than 14 losing seasons.

Sorry for getting on my soap box, but that argument really gets to me because  it is often said  without  the context of what this team has achieved,