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Camden Depot is wrong on Tillman's extension by almost a factor of 2


wildcard

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Ryan Pollack wrote an article on Tillman's extension and suggested 3/34m.  Way too low IMO.   I think it will take 4/62 including a club option for 16m with a 3m buyout to sign him this off season and the  O's should do it.   

I think the O's this off season will need to offer 11m for 2017, 16 per year for 2018-2020 plus a club option for 2021 at 16m with a 3m buyout.   Chen got 5/80m.  Yes, he was a free agent so there was no arbitration year to lower the annual cost but his overall package was 16m per year.  Tillman should see offers like that if he goes FA.

So why would the O's offer that much for Tillman when they never did for Chen?   Different time, different offer.   The O's were worried about team payroll when they left Chen go.   And the five year contract was also a  reason for that happening.    But if the O's can get Tillman for 4 years plus an option they should do it.  After 2017 there will be a lot of money coming off the O's books and the O's need Tillman to stay competitive.

 I think its crazy talk to say that if the O's offer Tillman 4 years it puts Tillman in the class with Verlander 7/180m and Wainwirght 5/97.5m.  It not even close.  But that is what Pollack did. 

http://camdendepot.blogspot.com/2017/01/chris-tillman-what-would-contract.html

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8 hours ago, wildcard said:

Ryan Pollack wrote an article on Tillman's extension and suggested 3/34m.  Way too low IMO.   I think it will take 4/62 including a club option for 16m with a 3m buyout to sign him this off season and the  O's should do it.   

I think the O's this off season will need to offer 11m for 2017, 16 per year for 2018-2020 plus a club option for 2021 at 16m with a 3m buyout.   Chen got 5/80m.  Yes, he was a free agent so there was no arbitration year to lower the annual cost but his overall package was 16m per year.  Tillman should see offers like that if he goes FA.

So why would the O's offer that much for Tillman when they never did for Chen?   Different time, different offer.   The O's were worried about team payroll when they left Chen go.   And the five year contract was also a  reason for that happening.    But if the O's can get Tillman for 4 years plus an option they should do it.  After 2017 there will be a lot of money coming off the O's books and the O's need Tillman to stay competitive.

 I think its crazy talk to say that if the O's offer Tillman 4 years it puts Tillman in the class with Verlander 7/180m and Wainwirght 5/97.5m.  It not even close.  But that is what Pollack did. 

http://camdendepot.blogspot.com/2017/01/chris-tillman-what-would-contract.html

A factor of 2 is 3/ 68, Yes?

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The article proposes 3/$34 mm for the Orioles' opening offer, not for a final deal.   But I don't think that even starts a conversation.   Also, where does he get the idea that Tillman is "old for a free agent starter?"   Tillman's getting 5/$80 mm or so as a FA if he has a good year.   Maybe we could get him for 5/$70 mm now.   

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10 minutes ago, Frobby said:

The article proposes 3/$34 mm for the Orioles' opening offer, not for a final deal.   But I don't think that even starts a conversation.   Also, where does he get the idea that Tillman is "old for a free agent starter?"   Tillman's getting 5/$80 mm or so as a FA if he has a good year.   Maybe we could get him for 5/$70 mm now.   

I think 5/75 would be a very fair deal. 

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Where would you rank Tillman on this list of FA pitchers for 2017-18 in terms of overall value, age and everything else considered? 

Henderson Alvarez
Jake Arrietta
Clay Buchholz
Matt Cain *
Tyler Chatwood
Wei-Yin Chen *
Alex Cobb
Yu Darvish
Felix Doubront
Danny Duffy
Nate Eovaldi
Marco Estrada
Yovani Gallardo *
Jaime Garcia
Matt Garza *
Gio Gonzalez
Miguel Gonzalez
Jason Hammel
Matt Harrison *
Derek Holland *
Hisashi Iwakuma *
Ubaldo Jimenez
John Lackey
Francisco Liriano
Jordan Lyles
Lance Lynn
Kris Medlen
Wade Miley *
Mike Minor *
Matt Moore
Charlie Morton
Jon Niese
Ricky Nolasco *
Jarrod Parker
Mike Pelfrey
Martin Perez *
Michael Pineda
Tyson Ross
CC Sabathia
Anibal Sanchez *
Hector Santiago
Chris Tillman
Josh Tomlin *
Jason Vargas
Edinson Volquez
Chris Young *

Overall, it is a pretty decent FA class.   I think Arrieta, Cobb (if he has a good year), Darvish and Duffy will get bigger deals than Tillman.   I don't know if anyone else will, though I haven't studied the stats of everyone on the list.  

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7 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Where would you rank Tillman on this list of FA pitchers for 2017-18 in terms of overall value, age and everything else considered? 

Henderson Alvarez
Jake Arrietta
Clay Buchholz
Matt Cain *
Tyler Chatwood
Wei-Yin Chen *
Alex Cobb
Yu Darvish
Felix Doubront
Danny Duffy
Nate Eovaldi
Marco Estrada
Yovani Gallardo *
Jaime Garcia
Matt Garza *
Gio Gonzalez
Miguel Gonzalez
Jason Hammel
Matt Harrison *
Derek Holland *
Hisashi Iwakuma *
Ubaldo Jimenez
John Lackey
Francisco Liriano
Jordan Lyles
Lance Lynn
Kris Medlen
Wade Miley *
Mike Minor *
Matt Moore
Charlie Morton
Jon Niese
Ricky Nolasco *
Jarrod Parker
Mike Pelfrey
Martin Perez *
Michael Pineda
Tyson Ross
CC Sabathia
Anibal Sanchez *
Hector Santiago
Chris Tillman
Josh Tomlin *
Jason Vargas
Edinson Volquez
Chris Young *

Overall, it is a pretty decent FA class.   I think Arrieta, Cobb (if he has a good year), Darvish and Duffy will get bigger deals than Tillman.   I don't know if anyone else will, though I haven't studied the stats of everyone on the list.  

Tillman is better than Cobb and Duff I feel.  But certainly not Arrieta or Darvish.

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1 hour ago, Frobby said:

The article proposes 3/$34 mm for the Orioles' opening offer, not for a final deal.   But I don't think that even starts a conversation.   Also, where does he get the idea that Tillman is "old for a free agent starter?"   Tillman's getting 5/$80 mm or so as a FA if he has a good year.   Maybe we could get him for 5/$70 mm now.   

Right, he said later in the article it might take 3/40 and he doesn't think Dan would go 4 years.  He is so far off its not funny.

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Whoever wrote that article is living in Fantasyland.  Put down the x-box controller and come back to the real world, my friend.

The starting point, IMO, is Chen's deal.  There's some risk for Tillman if he comes out and has a poor season, but if he's healthy and has a typical season for him (2015 was the outlier, IMO, due to injury), then there's no way he wouldn't match or exceed Chen's deal as a FA.  Unless his shoulder or back are still giving him issues at the moment, and he has reason to suspect that might negatively impact his '17 season, I see no reason why he would sign an extension for anything less than 5/85 or 5/90.

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I generally steer clear of voicing my opinion on player salaries, since I have zero knowledge or experience in managing the finances of a major league team.  All I can do is compare the reported salary figures of similar players to whoever is being discussed.  Pollack should probably consider doing the same.

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If he were to use rWAR instead of fWAR using WARcels, he would arrive at Tillman's value being $53.72 million over three years with 6.32 rWAR expected. Quite a big difference.

I would be curious to see the data supporting the concept that players past age 26 project to earn .4 WAR less each additional season. It is not provided in Tangotiger's initial post that Camden Depot used for these assumptions. I would imagine that few if any free agent pitchers project to be worth anywhere near their contract value, based on these assumptions. 

 

 

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