Various Orioles related FanGraphs articles

[Spy Fox]

13 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/instagraphs/heres-where-the-projections-disagree/

Zips added to the projection.

The result is that Fangraphs now projects the O's at an even .500, and the AL East as this:

• Red Sox, 93-69
• Blue Jays, 86-76
• Rays, 82-80
• Orioles, 81-81
• Yankees 80-82.

I still take the over, but it's not too far out of line from how I see things. 

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, Spy Fox said:

The result is that Fangraphs now projects the O's at an even .500, and the AL East as this:

• Red Sox, 93-69
• Blue Jays, 86-76
• Rays, 82-80
• Orioles, 81-81
• Yankees 80-82.

I still take the over, but it's not too far out of line from how I see things. 

I don't really get the Rays love.    

[Can_of_corn]

Bold!

Quote

1. Dylan Bundy will be the ace he was always supposed to be.
Once picked fourth overall and pegged as the future ace of the Orioles, Bundy had a terrible time in the minor leagues. Over five years, he managed only 111 innings between injuries. There was Tommy John, of course, but lat strains, shoulder-calcification issues and between-start bouts of elbow soreness have dogged him throughout, as well. At least he was good while he was in, with an ERA in the low twos and great rates to support those results.

I only quoted the first paragraph.

Not sure how bold #5 is.

 

[Can_of_corn]

http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/?powerpress_pinw=93649-podcast

 

Orioles related 39:30 on.

[Frobby]

12 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/?powerpress_pinw=93649-podcast

 

Orioles related 39:30 on.

What's the subject?    Worth a listen?

[Can_of_corn]

On 2/27/2017 at 2:06 PM, Frobby said:

What's the subject?    Worth a listen?

Sorry, missed your post, eh..it was OK.  I didn't feel like the time was wasted but it wasn't essential.

Now on to a poll, who steals more bases, the O's or the Brewers in a month?

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/which-of-two-numbers-is-going-to-be-higher/

[Frobby]

14 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Sorry, missed your post, eh..it was OK.  I didn't feel like the time was wasted but it wasn't essential.

Now on to a poll, who steals more bases, the O's or the Brewers in a month?

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/which-of-two-numbers-is-going-to-be-higher/

Tough one.    I'll say the Orioles' season total will exceed the Brewers' lowest monthly total.    On a related point, I had no idea the Brewers were such a big base-stealing team.

[Can_of_corn]

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/spring-training-divisional-outlook-al-east/

 

Quote

If there were no such thing as walks or whiffs, and games were decided by balls-in-play exclusively, the 2016 Orioles would have been one whale of a team. They hit the ball much harder than any other AL East club, and their staff allowed the least authoritative contact in the division. The offensive BIP authority was obvious, but the staff stealthily limited authority, thanks to significant contribution from the bullpen and the breakthrough of Dylan Bundy. On BIP alone, the O’s were a 98-64 team.

Quote

They were dramatically out-defended by their opponents on fly balls, to the tune of a 145.5 multiplier. Overall, their 108.7 Defensive Multiplier was the worst in the AL. This is the price of trotting Mark Trumbo out to right field quite often, a practice they seem intent on repeating (at least to some extent) in 2017. This lops another seven wins off of their projected total, down to 85-77, four games shy of their actual record.

 

[Spy Fox]

28 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/spring-training-divisional-outlook-al-east/

Just came to see if anyone else had posted this. 

I was not surprised to see how well our offense graded on balls in play, but I was surprised to see that our pitching was also the best in the division at allowing weak contact. We were predictably below average with regard to K's and BBs for both hitters and pitchers (and also weak on defense). As it says in the quote you cited, we do great on plays that don't involve walks and strikeouts. It seems to maybe lend credence to the idea that an over-reliance on K and BB percentages could be a factor in the projections undervaluing the O's.

There's also this mostly complimentary conclusion by the author:

Quote

The O’s offense will rival the Jays for best in the East, while the rotation should be improved at the top, though light in the back. I underestimate these guys every year, and am going to hedge my bets this time. I see them as better than the FanGraphs projection, as an 85-ish win team in the thick of the race for the second wild card.

 

[Can_of_corn]

6 minutes ago, Spy Fox said:

Just came to see if anyone else had posted this. 

I was not surprised to see how well our offense graded on balls in play, but I was surprised to see that our pitching was also the best in the division at allowing weak contact. We were predictably below average with regard to K's and BBs for both hitters and pitchers (and also weak on defense). As it says in the quote you cited, we do great on plays that don't involve walks and strikeouts. It seems to maybe lend credence to the idea that an over-reliance on K and BB percentages could be a factor in the projections undervaluing the O's.

There's also this mostly complimentary conclusion by the author:

 

Was nice seeing Bundy specifically mentioned.

[Frobby]

On the bright side, if our OF multiplier was 145 and our overall defensive multiplier was 108, the IF multiplier must have been pretty damned good.   

I'm not that surprised about our pitchers faring well on BIP.    Look how few homers they gave up.   

[Frobby]

This article looks back at last year's FA signings, and updates projections as to whether each player will outperform or underperform his contract.  They now expect Chris Davis to underperform by $54 mm, second-worst on the list behind Zack Greinke.   http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/how-much-are-last-years-free-agents-worth-now/

[weams]

NotGraphs

 

[backwardsk]

21 hours ago, Frobby said:

This article looks back at last year's FA signings, and updates projections as to whether each player will outperform or underperform his contract.  They now expect Chris Davis to underperform by $54 mm, second-worst on the list behind Zack Greinke.   http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/how-much-are-last-years-free-agents-worth-now/

So, for position players with large contracts, Davis outperformed Heyward, Upton, and Gordon in year one.  He also outperformed Cespedes based on rWAR.

[Can_of_corn]

26 minutes ago, weams said:

NotGraphs

 

It's going to be exciting when it is revealed that Tom Tango is actually Harold Reynolds.