Various Orioles related FanGraphs articles

[Can_of_corn]

6 minutes ago, BohKnowsBmore said:

Did you mean to reply to my question?

Nope, I was on mobile earlier, I'll delete the quote.

[BohKnowsBmore]

Just now, Can_of_corn said:

Nope, I was on mobile earlier, I'll delete the quote.

No need to worry about it, just wanted to make sure I wasn't missing some substance of your reply.

[Can_of_corn]

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/instagraphs/does-j-j-hardy-even-like-hitting/

 

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Hardy last year had one of the league’s very highest first-pitch zone rates. And no other hitter in the game had a higher percentage of his plate appearances advance to an 0-and-1 count. Hardy went through that count in about 61% of his trips. The average was 49%. If anything, it might be strange these rates weren’t even higher.

 

[Spy Fox]

1 hour ago, Can_of_corn said:

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/instagraphs/does-j-j-hardy-even-like-hitting/

This one definitely confirms the eye test. Most teams start him with fastballs down the middle all day! 

[Can_of_corn]

I'm going to be bringing this one up again.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/lets-play-with-new-defensive-data/

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Now, we can’t ignore Mark Trumbo, though. Kemp is at -39 plays in 2,575 outfield innings. Trumbo is at -27 plays in 1,461 outfield innings. Which means Trumbo comes out worse, and better on a rate basis than only Hanley Ramirez, who sure as heck doesn’t play outfield anymore. The Orioles know that Trumbo is a bat-first player. They might not fully appreciate the extent to which that’s been true. Trumbo and Kemp are not so dissimilar.

Trumbo is a league-worst -9 on 1 Star plays. Those are the easy ones, and Trumbo has converted nine fewer of them than you’d expect.

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But you’re here for the outliers! Here are the five players with the biggest positive differences between Statcast +/- and expected +/-:

• Adam Eaton
• Adam Jones
• Leonys Martin
• Jake Marisnick
• Lorenzo Cain

These are players our numbers have probably underrated a little bit. Eaton, for example, might well be a defensive superstar. Meanwhile, here are the five players with the biggest negative differences between Statcast +/- and expected +/-:

• Nick Markakis
• Matt Kemp
• Kole Calhoun
• Bryce Harper
• Curtis Granderson

 

[Spy Fox]

The Fangraphs Top 100 Prospects list came out this week, written by Eric Longenhagen.

The one Oriole to make the list was Chance Sisco, at #85.

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Tool Grades (Present/Future)

Hit	Raw Power	Game Power	Run	Fielding	Throw
50/55	50/50	40/45	30/30	45/50	40/40

Scouting Summary

Sisco passes behind the plate despite fringe arm strength because he’s made himself into a solid receiver and game-caller. He tracks pitches like a hawk and has a quiet, comfortable swing and good bat control. There’s some room on the frame for more power as he enters his mid-20s, but it may rob him of his mobility behind the plate.

 

[Can_of_corn]

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/baltimores-outfield-options-dont-make-much-sense/

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But then there’s the Orioles outfield. If you know how to make this group fit together, I’d love to hear it.

In center field, of course, is Adam Jones, who publicly suggested that he’d like to be flanked by some better defenders this year. I don’t think he’s going to get his wish.

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As far as I can figure, the Alvarez signing signals one of two options.

1. The team is looking to trade Hyun Soo Kim, who they didn’t really trust last year until he forced his way into the line-up, and would give his spot to Alvarez, shifting Smith to left field in the process.

2. They signed Alvarez as a favor to give him a chance to play outfield in front of scouts, figuring some other team will be impressed enough to trade for him before Opening Day.

 

[BohKnowsBmore]

http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/buying-and-selling-team-u-s-a/

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Sell Adam Jones

If Eric Hosmer is the most overrated player on Team U.S.A., Adam Jones is a close second. Despite collecting a couple of big hits in the United States’ win against Colombia, including the one that ended it, Jones has been roughly a league-average hitter in his career. Over the last three seasons, Jones’ .331 wOBA is equivalent to that of Carlos Gomez and Denard Span. Jones did have three very good seasons from 2012-14 (.350 wOBA, 120 wRC+), but the same can be said of Gomez and Span. Buy accordingly.

 

BOOOOOOOO!

[Spy Fox]

Fangraphs has been posting their Positional Power Rankings lately. They're basically just rankings of which teams they expect to collect the highest combined WAR at each position based on the Fangraphs depth charts and projections. Here's where the Orioles have placed so far out of the 30 teams:

•  C - 17th overall (4th in AL East)
• 1b - 8th (1st)
• 2b - 16th (4th)
• 3b - 2nd (2nd)
• Ss - 25th (5th)
• Lf - 7th (1st)
• Cf - 18th (4th)
• Rf - 23rd (5th)
• Dh - 5th out of 15 (3rd in AL East)
• SP - 21st (5th)
• RP - 6th (2nd)

The biggest surprise for me is seeing our Lf group place so high. Their depth charts have 420 PAs for Kim, 140 for P. Alvarez, 105 for Smith, and a handful for Santander. 

[Frobby]

I have this gut feeling -- not that I'd put money on it -- that Adam Jones will have a career year this year, or close to it.    He's in good health, and I think his WBC experience is going to jump start his season.     

I thought the LF/RF disparity in the rankings was interesting, and also the fact that the O's (with Castillo) were ranked higher at catcher than the Nats (with Wieters).

[Spy Fox]

59 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I thought the LF/RF disparity in the rankings was interesting, and also the fact that the O's (with Castillo) were ranked higher at catcher than the Nats (with Wieters).

I was surprised by that too. Some of it just has to do with the level of competition. There are a bunch of stars playing RF, not as much in LF. The 2.0 WAR they project for Kim/Alvarez/Smith/Santander in LF would drop them from 7th to 13th if they were in RF instead of LF, while the 1.0 WAR they project for Smith/Trumbo/Rickard/etc in RF would push them from 23rd to around 18th if they were in LF instead of RF. 

It also seems to be a consequence of their expectations for Rickard. First of all, they're not impressed by him in general, giving him -0.2 WAR for the season. Secondly, they only have him in their depth charts for RF, not LF. So the RF group is hurt by his inclusion while the LF group is not, even though we can expect he'll be playing in both spots, if not in LF more often than RF.

[Spy Fox]

On 3/27/2017 at 0:15 PM, Spy Fox said:

•  C - 17th overall (4th in AL East)
• 1b - 8th (1st)
• 2b - 16th (4th)
• 3b - 2nd (2nd)
• Ss - 25th (5th)
• Lf - 7th (1st)
• Cf - 18th (4th)
• Rf - 23rd (5th)
• Dh - 5th out of 15 (3rd in AL East)
• SP - 21st (5th)
• RP - 6th (2nd)

Updated to include their Bullpen rankings, released today. Orioles placed 6th. A few spots behind the Yankees. 

[Can_of_corn]

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/is-mlb-already-shrinking-the-strike-zone/

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The most interesting bit is all the way to the right. Compared to last spring, this spring’s rate is down a hair over five percentage points. Obviously, no such decline has been observed before, within the limited window. What it means: If there are fewer called strikes in the bottom of the zone, the lower boundary has effectively been lifted. Not by very much, not to a degree where the entire game of baseball would be different, but changes are changes.

Again, and this is important, we’re going to need more information. We’ll get that information within the next month. The regular season will immediately provide plenty more data, with pitches by the thousands, and then we’ll be able to see where we are. This is just a possible hint, a first whisper of a subtle change to the game.

 

[Spy Fox]

thttp://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/fangraphs-2017-staff-predictions/

 

Four out of 54 Fangraphs staff predicted the Orioles in the postseason. Here's the chart counting their full staff's predictions of who will reach the AL playoffs.

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Staff Predictions: American League

Team	East	Central	West	WC 1	WC 2	Postseason
Cleveland		53				53
Boston	43			6	2	51
Houston			38	10	2	50
Toronto	6			18	9	33
Seattle			9	9	10	28
Texas			5	7	7	19
New York	2			2	13	17
Detroit		1			7	8
Baltimore	1			1	2	4
Tampa Bay	2			1	1	4
Los Angeles of Anaheim			2		1	3
Oakland						0
Chicago						0
Kansas City						0
Minnesota						0

 

 

[Can_of_corn]

What I find odd is the guy that picked Machado for MVP and Mancini for ROY still has the O's missing the playoffs.  Actually, all five that pick Machado for MVP don't think the O's will make the playoffs.