O's Offer Girardi Job

[LAOSfan]

Don't you thing other GM's would have the same reservations about Guthrie that you have? Do you honestly think they would give up a top 5 prospect for him?

[Chollie Eckman]

I hope you're wrong. Girardi would be a mistake.

[bryanman8]

Don't you thing other GM's would have the same reservations about Guthrie that you have? Do you honestly think they would give up a top 5 prospect for him?

No, a lot of GMs think just like a lot of you do--that Guthrie was just a "late bloomer" who's now a legit 2 starter.

There are a lot of dumb GMs out there. Yes, I think we could get a very good prospect for a guy I think is around a 5 starter. That's more valuable to us than him.

[LA2]

Girardi had one season of limited success and too many people act like he'll save the franchise. I think we're rushing blindly into this.

[Delduck]

Girardi had one season of limited success and too many people act like he'll save the franchise. I think we're rushing blindly into this.

My 1st choice would be Davey, but I also like Girardi, at least his style. I believe this team needs a DI like Sam said.

[Dr. FLK]

I hope for Girardi's sake he stays away from this job. He's a good manager and should stick around and wait for a good opening. He can't do anything with this team. I hope we don't get Girardi and continue our delusions of somehow contending either this year or next. We NEED to rebuild! Girardi doesn't change that, it just makes us think even more that we don't!

Why are "rebuilding" and "hiring a good manager" mutually exclusive events?

[MPK76]

According to Roch,

ESPN is reporting that the Orioles have offered Joe Girardi the managerial job, but a high-ranking Orioles official said that's inaccurate.

Maybe tomorrow.

http://weblogs.baltimoresun.com/sports/roch/blog/

[geschinger]

Girardi had one season of limited success and too many people act like he'll save the franchise. I think we're rushing blindly into this.

He won't save the franchise but he will hold players accountable which is something this franchise desparately needs. He's still young as a manager and I'm sure he'll make plenty of mistakes. I'm hoping if he comes on board that it is just the start of a honest attempt to rebuild a floundering franchise and I think if they do go that route he's the perfect choice.

[fearthenoodle]

According to Roch,

http://weblogs.baltimoresun.com/sports/roch/blog/

My guess is that the O's aren't going to say they've offered the job to Girardi until they've either interviewed a minority candidate, or received permission from MLB to hire him without interviewing a minority.

It is my belief that they likely did tell Girardi he was their guy, and Girardi pretty much agreed to take the job, but MacPhail and Flanny told him they wouldn't be able to officially offer him until they talked to MLB.

[Goop]

I really hope they don't rush this decision. I think Girardi is a great candidate,

but I hope they will also interview some others (i.e. DJ) just to make sure he is

who they want. The last thing the team needs is a rushed, not thought out decision.

[Hank Scorpio]

Bedard's getting up there in age. If you can trade him for a 24-year-old version of himself, why not? It's the same deal with Roberts.

Guthrie is pitching way over his head. A smart team would realize that he's a career minor-leaguer who may have transformed into a solid 4-5 starter but is currently pitching like a young future ace and ship him off for a top prospect. Obviously, we won't.

B, I'm with you on trading Bedard. His value is about as high as it'll ever be and you can probably get back 2 very good young players for him.

I keep Guthrie, not only because he has above average stuff and the right mindset, but because we have him under our control for 5 years. I know he's pitching over his head, but I think Guthrie is a keeper for the back end of the rotation.

[AgentOrange]

I hope for Girardi's sake he stays away from this job. He's a good manager and should stick around and wait for a good opening. He can't do anything with this team. I hope we don't get Girardi and continue our delusions of somehow contending either this year or next. We NEED to rebuild! Girardi doesn't change that, it just makes us think even more that we don't!

I disagree. I think Andy MacPhail is the reason he would take this job and the reason he would take this job is because he would have a lot of managerial say. MacPhail is going to be in charge of the franchise with player descisions and I am sure they told Girardi that things would be different. I am surpised that you don't see that. I have a hard time believing that Girardi would take the job if they told him everything would be the same.

Girardi would be the first step into a youth movement with spending cash for Girardi when he gets this ship turned around.

[baltfan]

Oh, my bad. You're talking about Guthrie, aren't you?

Guthrie doesn't strike out enough guys for a guy who doesn't have great control and hasn't his whole career except for this year.

He's obviously a late bloomer, if he was like he was his whole career he wouldn't even be near the majors.

I like Guthrie. I like his work ethic and smarts. But his lack of K's and usual lack of control make me think he's not gonna be anything but a 4ish ERA pitcher. If anyone thinks he's really a 1 or 2 as he's pitching like now, you need to sell high.

Some things to consider in evaluating Guthrie.

1. He lost some time due to the fact that he did mission work.

2. While his K rate is maybe not as high as you would like, his stuff suggests that his K rate should be higher. This is possibly a product of him concentrating on learning how to pitch and throwing strikes versus trying to strike everyone out.

3. We got rid of a late-bloomer a number of years ago who didn't have much of a k-rate--Jamie Moyer.

4. Though Guthrie's stuff isn't as good, Verlander is a guy who comes to mind who had a seemingly abnormally low k rate for his stuff last year. His k rate is now improving, but still isn't what you would expect for someone with his stuff.

5. Guys with k-rates similar to Guthrie who are pretty good.

Buerhle - 5.86

Halladay - 5.90

Blanton - 6.09

There is a lot of value in sabremetrics but everyone needs to understand its limitations. Last year the sabermetricians said that the Nationals were fools for trading Brad Wilkerson for Alfonso Soriano. I saw more than one article saying that they might end up with roughly identical statistics. How did that work out?

There were numerous sabremetricians that were all set to write-off Jose Reyes early in his career. I have heard for a couple of years now that Wang can't keep it up in NY because his K rate is too low. J.D. Drew has made millions of dollars because he is such a favorite of sabermetricians.

SABRE GUYS PLEASE READ THIS PART. I AM A SUBSCRIBER TO BASEBALL PROSPECTUS. I BELIEVE IN THE VALUE OF STATISTICS. I AGREE THAT OBP IS MORE IMPORTANT THAN BATTING AVG, THAT RBI ARE VIRTUALLY WORTHLESS AS A STATISTIC, AND THAT K RATES GENERALLY ARE A GOOD WAY TO EVALUATE THE LIKELIHOOD OF FUTURE SUCCESS. BUT, AS A MATH MAJOR LONG AGO, I ALSO UNDERSTAND THAT THE MORE COMPLICATED THE STATISTICAL COMPILATION, THE MORE LIKELY THERE IS ERROR THAT YOU HAVE FAILED TO ANTICIPATE.

[33rd&Ellerslie]

He won't save the franchise but he will hold players accountable which is something this franchise desparately needs. He's still young as a manager and I'm sure he'll make plenty of mistakes. I'm hoping if he comes on board that it is just the start of a honest attempt to rebuild a floundering franchise and I think if they do go that route he's the perfect choice.

Gesch, this is where I think you are dead on. Accountability!

Look, I am a rookie here and honestly I am a bit ashamed of that looking at some of the recent rookie posts, and I deserve zero credit, but I have been for Girardi for a long time. I may be wrong but I don't think so. He is a former player with 3 championships, I think that will give him credibility in the clubhouse. He isn't afraid to stand up to anyone, not Sammy Sosa when they got in their tiff about his radio being too loud all the time, not Jeffrey Loria; he is intelligent (Industrial Engineering Degree at Northwestern) and I believe he sees potential in this team with MacPhail or he wouldn't be coming here. He could have his pick of jobs at the end of the year, don't doubt that but I believe he wants to come here. That says a lot to me.

Secondly, we are not getting anywhere trading off Bradford and Williamson and Patterson. You get what you give. If this team is going to go somewhere we are going to have to trade off value NOW for value LATER. I love Brian Roberts and Erik Bedard, but we are going to have to give up something to get something else we need. Unfortunately we are going to have to take a few steps back to get ahead. I think Roy alluded to this in his "Just Wondering" post. I think MacPhail and Girardi are the combination to get us where we need. I hope in 2009 we are all pouring the champagne together!

Finally, I am an idiot too so take it for what it is worth!

[Sports Guy]

I hope he turns it down.