Why Do I Keep Reading Comments Stating Bats Won't Be Available Later?

[Stotle]

Couple of examples from '04/'05:

2005 Chase Headley (round 2), Reimold (round 2), Mike Costanzo (round 2), Yunel Escobar (round 2), Nick Weglarz (round 3), Taylor Teagarden (round 3), Jordan Schafer (round 3), Brett Gardner (round 3), Brent Lillibridge (round 4), Jeff Larish (round 5)

2004 Reid Brignac (round 2), Dustin Pedroia (round 2), Kurt Suzuki (round 2), Hunter Pence (round 2), Adam Lind (round 3), Chris Iannetta (round 4)

I'm starting to worry that O's fans are going to be hanging unfair expectations on the 1st round pick, this season. I understand the excitement of starting to get talent in the farm system, but you should never 1) draft for need with a top pick, or 2) draft with the hopes that said player will be a quick solution for you. Go about your business taking the best talent available and hope you can develop it. A lot can, and does, happen in 2-4 years.

[allstar1579]

I agree there are always players to find later on, bats included, but as far as the top 10 picks go, the bats should be much higher rated than the pitchers, with only Matusz and Crow mentioned (ok maybe Hunt sneaks in). With the mechanics problems Matusz has, and the struggles of Crow, I don't think either warrant a selection over the big bats.

I do agree with you though, we need to remember this isn't a one-round draft, and there are likely going to be many stars drafted later than in the 1st round.

[Duke2010]

Same case can be made about finding pitching prospects later in the draft, especially within our organization. From the Bedard trade, Butler and Tillman came from rounds 2 and 3. Erbe was a third round pick, and Spoone was taken down in the 8th round. Zach Britton was taken in the third round and he's having a good year so far, and DHernandez was taken in the 14th or 15th round I believe. When a top bat in the draft is still available, I think that most on here would prefer that we take him because we have had a lot of success in taking pitchers in later rounds that have been solid. We haven't had the same success of finding hitting prospects later in the draft, at least not anywhere near the level of success of our pitchers.

With all this said, I think we can and should take a top bat with our first pick because Jordan and company will find pitching talent later in the draft, and taking a top bat isn't really picking for a need, because I doubt that Matusz is rated that much better than someone like Smoak, if at all.

[Stotle]

Same case can be made about finding pitching prospects later in the draft, especially within our organization. From the Bedard trade, Butler and Tillman came from rounds 2 and 3. Erbe was a third round pick, and Spoone was taken down in the 8th round. Zach Britton was taken in the third round and he's having a good year so far, and DHernandez was taken in the 14th or 15th round I believe. When a top bat in the draft is still available, I think that most on here would prefer that we take him because we have had a lot of success in taking pitchers in later rounds that have been solid. We haven't had the same success of finding hitting prospects later in the draft, at least not anywhere near the level of success of our pitchers.

With all this said, I think we can and should take a top bat with our first pick because Jordan and company will find pitching talent later in the draft, and taking a top bat isn't really picking for a need, because I doubt that Matusz is rated that much better than someone like Smoak, if at all.

I think the point is simply (as stated above by allstar) this isn't a 1-round draft. You take the best talent, regardless of position and go from there. There isn't a compelling reason to take a bat if the best player available is a pitcher, and vice versa.

[Three Run Homer]

I think it's easier to find good pitchers in later rounds. There are always pitchers who get undervalued because of a transitory injury or some other random bump in performance, and the O's have a history of capitalizing on these arbitrage opportunities.

The O's certainly have had far more success drafting pitchers in later rounds than hitters. I don't think Nolan Reimold or Mike Costanzo is anyone's idea of a gem, at least not yet, and they were 2nd rounders. Maybe other teams can find polished hitters in the later rounds, but this organization has a poor track record of uncovering good hitters, with Matt Weiters being the obvious exception--and he was virtually an idiot-proof pick. Given that this seems to be a limitation of our scouting prowess, we should compensate for it by using our high pick to select a hitter whose quality doesn't require great scouting genius to recognize.

[LookinUp]

I think the answer to your question is "because we haven't found good bats in the later rounds in recent drafts." They're certainly available, but for some reason they haven't ended up in our farm system. Maybe it's the lack of draft choices, I don't know.

[Stotle]

I think the answer to your question is "because we haven't found good bats in the later rounds in recent drafts." They're certainly available, but for some reason they haven't ended up in our farm system. Maybe it's the lack of draft choices, I don't know.

Certainly an issue.

[crawdad]

I think the answer to your question is "because we haven't found good bats in the later rounds in recent drafts." They're certainly available, but for some reason they haven't ended up in our farm system. Maybe it's the lack of draft choices, I don't know.

Decent sleepers of the past 3 years selected past the 1st:

2007

Matt Angle

Tyler Kolodny

Joe Mahoney

2006

Bobby Henson

Brandon Tripp

2005

Nolan Reimold (not really a sleeper)

Paco Figuero

Mark Fliesher

Chris Vinyard

These guys are the kind of guys that may break out.

[Jammer7]

Stotle, of those you named, how many are IMPACT bats? Maybe Pence, Reimold and Headley? Maybe. The others are solid, but I'm talking about guys that have the ability to be all-stars and hit in the middle of the order.

When you are talking about impact bats, the majority come from the first round. Jordan pretty much stated in today's Sun article the desire to get bats early and pitchers later. And he has a track record of doing just exactly that.

I agree that you generally do not draft for need and you should be in it for the long haul. There isn't a pitcher that really excites me in this draft, but there are several bats that I'd really like to grab...especially Tim Beckham, Hosmer, and Alvarez. Maybe even Posey at this point would be okay with me, but I'd have to think that he woud be coming with the idea of a position change down the road.

[Stotle]

Stotle, of those you named, how many are IMPACT bats? Maybe Pence, Reimold and Headley? Maybe. The others are solid, but I'm talking about guys that have the ability to be all-stars and hit in the middle of the order.

When you are talking about impact bats, the majority come from the first round. Jordan pretty much stated in today's Sun article the desire to get bats early and pitchers later. And he has a track record of doing just exactly that.

I agree that you generally do not draft for need and you should be in it for the long haul. There isn't a pitcher that really excites me in this draft, but there are several bats that I'd really like to grab...especially Tim Beckham, Hosmer, and Alvarez. Maybe even Posey at this point would be okay with me, but I'd have to think that he woud be coming with the idea of a position change down the road.

Generally I agree with you. The fact is, there aren't really that many impact bats in any rounds (outside of a draft like '05, which was insane). This happens to be a hitter-heavy draft -- however, the statements I was referring to are comments indicating that as a rule you pick bats early and pitchers late. I think getting yourself into that mindset is incorrect.

Last year, BAL was set on RD before Wieters inexplicably fell into their lap. I'd be okay if BAL ended up with the next Verlander/Porcello/Lincecum/Kershaw/Scherzer/Elbert. If JJ thinks Matusz could be that, so be it.

For the record, as of today, I would prefer BAL end up with Alvarez/TBeckham/Posey in that order and put Matusz as a toss-up with Smoak.