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Has the Never Ending Contract Rise Ended?


accinfo

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Or at least slowed considerably?  Who would have bet the under on 13 million per year for Mark Trumbo?  Yes I realize his defensive skills or lack there of hurts his overall value but he did hit 47 home runs and is in the prime of his career.   The top players like Manny and Harper are going to get plenty rich but I have to believe the talk of $400 million dollar plus contracts now seems much less likely.  I especially believe there will be a trend not to give many more contracts over 5 years in the future.  I have said this before so it may be just a brief pause in the insanity but it feels different to me.

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10 minutes ago, accinfo said:

Or at least slowed considerably?  Who would have bet the under on 13 million per year for Mark Trumbo?  Yes I realize his defensive skills or lack there of hurts his overall value but he did hit 47 home runs and is in the prime of his career.   The top players like Manny and Harper are going to get plenty rich but I have to believe the talk of $400 million dollar plus contracts now seems much less likely.  I especially believe there will be a trend not to give many more contracts over 5 years in the future.  I have said this before so it may be just a brief pause in the insanity but it feels different to me.

It wasn't just the lack of defensive skills.

He has a poor OBP and zero speed.

Basically power is all he provides.

And of course most teams like to keep their draft picks, so that kept his cost down, just like it did Gallardo, Ubaldo and Cruz.

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There have been a few deals this winter that were cheaper than I expected but I doubt it's a sign of a long-term slow down. 

Part of it comes from an oversaturation of relatively one dimensional hitters in the market this winter. Also, it could be a hangover effect of having one of the worst FA crops in a while right after a FA crop in 2015-2016 that had tons of star power. 

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10 hours ago, accinfo said:

Or at least slowed considerably?  Who would have bet the under on 13 million per year for Mark Trumbo?  Yes I realize his defensive skills or lack there of hurts his overall value but he did hit 47 home runs and is in the prime of his career.   The top players like Manny and Harper are going to get plenty rich but I have to believe the talk of $400 million dollar plus contracts now seems much less likely.  I especially believe there will be a trend not to give many more contracts over 5 years in the future.  I have said this before so it may be just a brief pause in the insanity but it feels different to me.

No, next season with no Qualifying Offer attached, the prices will go up. If the economy is still rocketing as it has been. 

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6 hours ago, weams said:

No, next season with no Qualifying Offer attached, the prices will go up. If the economy is still rocketing as it has been. 

Baseball is due for an economic recession at least as much as the overall economy is.  By the end of 2018 the possibility is fairly high -- for the overall economy at least if not for baseball.

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Just now, CheeryO said:

Baseball is due for an economic recession at least as much as the overall economy is.  By the end of 2018 the possibility is fairly high.

I would simply say that it would follow the rest of the economy. And both baseball and the rest of the US have been on long upswings. 

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1 minute ago, weams said:

I would simply say that it would follow the rest of the economy. And both baseball and the rest of the US have been on long upswings. 

I disagree.  The health of baseball doesn't really depend on the health of the overall economy.  The economy could be doing just fine when suddenly the cable TV business model gets completely disrupted -- which could happen within the next two years.  If it does then baseball could be in a heap of trouble.  As for the US being on a long economic upswing, well there was the Great Recession not too long ago, but we did bottom out about 8-9 years ago.  The recession cycle since the 70s has been a new recession less than every 10 years or so.  We could be due very soon, especially with Mr. Orange taking the oath today.

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I think if anything, we'll see the cream of the MLB FA crop continue to get paid more and more (brace yourselves for the $300M+ deals that clubs are drawing up for Machado, Arenado, Betts, and Harper), but we'll also start to see organizations become more and more in tune with advanced metrics and paying players more appropriately for their contributions. Everyone's been saying that Trumbo would have gotten a huge payday 10 years ago, and I have to think that's right. But in 2017, more teams know how to accurately evaluate the players with whom they negotiate. 

Still, if a team wants someone badly enough and early enough in free agency, they'll pay more to make sure it happens.

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Think how much less the rise in contracts would look if not for DD

Who would have given 4/60 to a 31 yo SS coming after a season that saw his HR's drop from 28 to 8?

Who would have given a 4/31 to a 34 yo setup man?

Who would have given 7/161 to a 1B one year removed from hitting .196 and serving a PED suspension?

Who would have signed Mark Trumbo for 3/39 ?

Many teams are getting the message that FA's over the age of 30 are almost always not worth it. DD has not gotten the memo

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38 minutes ago, Sanfran327 said:

 

I think if anything, we'll see the cream of the MLB FA crop continue to get paid more and more (brace yourselves for the $300M+ deals that clubs are drawing up for Machado, Arenado, Betts, and Harper), but we'll also start to see organizations become more and more in tune with advanced metrics and paying players more appropriately for their contributions. Everyone's been saying that Trumbo would have gotten a huge payday 10 years ago, and I have to think that's right. But in 2017, more teams know how to accurately evaluate the players with whom they negotiate. 

Still, if a team wants someone badly enough and early enough in free agency, they'll pay more to make sure it happens.

 

o

 

I agree, to an extent. It depends on the team, and its perennial payroll. For teams like the Yankees, the Dodgers, and the Red Sox, this seems to be often true. However, for teams that have to manage their overall payrolls with more frugality (mid-market teams, and ESPECIALLY small-market teams), signing off on a huge chunk of cash may not be such a sure thing, even if they want a particular player very badly.

It will be interesting to see how much mid-market teams (such as the Orioles) continue to shell out over the next 5-10 years for players that they feel are essential to their team (for example, will they give Machado a huge contract in the manner of which they gave Chris Davis? etc.)

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On 1/20/2017 at 2:27 PM, webbrick2010 said:

Think how much less the rise in contracts would look if not for DD

Who would have given 4/60 to a 31 yo SS coming after a season that saw his HR's drop from 28 to 8?

It's funny how every time you mention the Hardy contract, you overexaggerate the terms of the contract more and more. Before you said it was 3/$50. Now you say it's 4/$60. I'm looking forward to your next post, "I can't believe Duquette signed Hardy to that 5-year, $80 million contract extension."

In reality, Hardy's extension was for 3 year, $40 million. He has a vesting option for $14 million in 2018 (based on plate appearances) or a $2 million buyout.

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