Keith Law's Orioles Top 20

[Frobby]

Here's Law's list, with OH ranking in parentheses:

1.  Sisco (3)

2.  Sedlock (1)

3.  Akin (4)

4.  Harvey (3)

5.  Lee (15)

6.  Mountcastle (7)

7.  Reyes (19)

8.  Mancini (11)

9.  Scott (12)

10.  Hays (5)

11.  Dietz (10)

12.  Stewart (21)

13.  Peralta (9)

14.  Gassaway (18)

15.  Gonzalez (8)

16.  Clevenger (13)

17.  Dosch

18.  Means

19.  Mullins (23)

20.  Hess (24)

Players on the OH list unranked by Law:  Wells (6), Muckenhirn (14), Peluffo (16), Liranzo (17), Fenter (20), Ortega (22), Hart (25).

The most interesting things to me are the high rankings of Lee and Reyes, the omission of Wells, and the inclusion of Dosch.

[Can_of_corn]

OH has Harvey second not third.

My guess on Wells is that his stuff doesn't project to be very good against major league hitters.

Remember KLaw didn't have Bundy listed at all last year.

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, RZNJ said:

I like that he still has Reyes in the top ten. It would be interesting to see what he's got to say about Sisco after previously calling him hopeless as a catcher.

He ranked Sisco 69th in MLB, so he must have changed his mind, unless he's incredibly high on Sisco's hit tool and thinks it can play well in the OF.

[Tony-OH]

20 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

OH has Harvey second not third.

My guess on Wells is that his stuff doesn't project to be very good against major league hitters.

Remember KLaw didn't have Bundy listed at all last year.

I'm guessing he just doesn't have any reports about him. Most of the guys he doesn't have listed played at either Aberdeen or the GCL. Not too many scouts go to those games so unless they have a pedigree they are normally ignored by the National guys who don't have the resources or time to go into that much depth into one organization because they are covering so many.

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, Tony-OH said:

I'm guessing he just doesn't have any reports about him. Most of the guys he doesn't have listed played at either Aberdeen or the GCL. Not too many scouts go to those games so unless they have a pedigree they are normally ignored by the National guys who don't have the resources or time to go into that much depth into one organization because they are covering so many.

Well, he did have Sedlock, Akin and Hays on the list, but I suppose he had scouting reports on those guys from the draft, whereas Wells never pitched in the U.S. before last season.  

[Tony-OH]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

Well, he did have Sedlock, Akin and Hays on the list, but I suppose he had scouting reports on those guys from the draft, whereas Wells never pitched in the U.S. before last season.  

The pedigree is the key. As you stated, all of those guys have draft pedigrees. 

[Can_of_corn]

4 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

I'm guessing he just doesn't have any reports about him. Most of the guys he doesn't have listed played at either Aberdeen or the GCL. Not too many scouts go to those games so unless they have a pedigree they are normally ignored by the National guys who don't have the resources or time to go into that much depth into one organization because they are covering so many.

He's back living in Deleware.  He should be able to get eyes on guys from Aberdeen.  Since this is part of his job and all.

[Tony-OH]

Whatever man, believe what you want.

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Whatever man, believe what you want.

Huh?  I said he's living local so he should be able to get eyes on if he wants to.

How is that worthy of your response?

[Tony-OH]

49 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Huh?  I said he's living local so he should be able to get eyes on if he wants to.

How is that worthy of your response?

Just like I said it, believe what you want. If you believe Keith Law, a Senior ESPN writer who covers the minor leagues for all teams, has the time to go to Aberdeen or desire to go to a NY-Penn League game to see a 19-year old left-hander he probably never heard of then by all means, believe. 

I cover one team, and I even i don't get a chance to see every player in the system. That means I relie on my network of scouts, minor league managers/coaches/front office along with statistics to make my assessments. That means it takes me well over 10-15 hours of telephone conversations, and many more hours combing through statistics, video if available and the time to analyze it all. Then you take the time to put all of that into profiles that help the fans have a good idea of the players now and future abilities. 

National guys do the same thing when it comes to who they talk to and I'm sure they have their own analysis when they are lucky enoug to see some guys live. But it's impossible for one man to see every player he would have to evaluate, and even then, he wouldn't have the time to do a detailed analysis. That means they pick and choose who they go see, and it's doubtful he's making time to go watch unheralded players in the short-season A-ball or rookie leagues because he knows he has time before they will surely hit the national prospect scene.

So again, if you want to think that a National guy has gone down and seen Wells pitch and decided his stuff doesn't merit inclusion because it "doesn't project to be very good against major league hitters" , then great, it's a free world.

i would just think someone who has been around here as long as you, and knows the amount of time and effort I put into covering the Orioles minor league system, would have a little more respect then to just assume a national guy didn't like Wells stuff when I clearly wrote up something different. I've only been doing this for almost 20 years so maybe give me a little credit that I know how the national guys work. 

 

[Can_of_corn]

6 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Just like I said it, believe what you want. If you believe Keith Law, a Senior ESPN writer who covers the minor leagues for all teams, has the time to go to Aberdeen or desire to go to a NY-Penn League game to see a 19-year old left-hander he probably never heard of then by all means, believe. 

I cover one team, and I even i don't get a chance to see every player in the system. That means I relie on my network of scouts, minor league managers/coaches/front office along with statistics to make my assessments. That means it takes me well over 10-15 hours of telephone conversations, and many more hours combing through statistics, video if available and the time to analyze it all. Then you take the time to put all of that into profiles that help the fans have a good idea of the players now and future abilities. 

National guys do the same thing when it comes to who they talk to and I'm sure they have their own analysis when they are lucky enoug to see some guys live. But it's impossible for one man to see every player he would have to evaluate, and even then, he wouldn't have the time to do a detailed analysis. That means they pick and choose who they go see, and it's doubtful he's making time to go watch unheralded players in the short-season A-ball or rookie leagues because he knows he has time before they will surely hit the national prospect scene.

So again, if you want to think that a National guy has gone down and seen Wells pitch and decided his stuff doesn't merit inclusion because it "doesn't project to be very good against major league hitters" , then great, it's a free world.

i would just think someone who has been around here as long as you, and knows the amount of time and effort I put into covering the Orioles minor league system, would have a little more respect then to just assume a national guy didn't like Wells stuff when I clearly wrote up something different. I've only been doing this for almost 20 years so maybe give me a little credit that I know how the national guys work. 

 

I never suggested he was right and you were wrong.  I read Law a lot and he penalizes pitchers pretty heavily that have stuff he views as pedestrian.  I also have no idea if he saw any Aberdeen games this season, I was just mentioning that he is local so he could have. 

You read way more into what I said than what I meant, my goal was to simply attempt to find the motive behind Law's ranking. 

[Frobby]

2 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

I never suggested he was right and you were wrong.  I read Law a lot and he penalizes pitchers pretty heavily that have stuff he views as pedestrian.  

Sickels ranked Wells 15th, so it's not outside the realm of possibility that Law thinks he's outside the top 20.     But below John Means, really?

[Can_of_corn]

8 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Sickels ranked Wells 15th, so it's not outside the realm of possibility that Law thinks he's outside the top 20.     But below John Means, really?

Was just throwing out a theory.

Law can be oddly dismissive of guys at times.