Is 2017 J.J. Hardy's Last Season With The Orioles?

[PressBoxOnline]

J.J. Hardy on his future with the Orioles beyond 2017: "If I stay healthy and do what I'm capable of, I think they'll pick up the option. If I'm not healthy, I'll worry about that, but I'm not going to worry about that right now."

https://www.pressboxonline.com/2017/01/31/is-2017-jj-hardys-last-season-with-the-orioles

[MDtransplant757]

Nope. They'll pick up the option either way barring anything major happening

[Aristotelian]

So the option vests automatically with 600 ABs or the team can pick it up?

I would tend to agree with MDtransplant757. Between the vesting and the lack of options in the organization at SS or 3B, I have a hard time imagining anyone else. I don't see anyone else on the 2017-18 market list that would be a major upgrade.

 

Alexi Amarista (29) — $2.5MM club option with a $150K buyout
Darwin Barney (32)
Asdrubal Cabrera (32) — $8.5MM club option with a $2MM buyout
Zack Cozart (32)
Stephen Drew (35)
Alcides Escobar (31)
Danny Espinosa (31)
J.J. Hardy (35) — $14MM club option with a $2MM buyout
Jed Lowrie (34) — $6MM club option with a $1MM buyout
Eduardo Nunez (31)
Cliff Pennington (34)
Jhonny Peralta (36)
Adam Rosales (35)

[wildbillhiccup]

8 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

So the option vests automatically with 600 ABs or the team can pick it up?

I would tend to agree with MDtransplant757. Between the vesting and the lack of options in the organization at SS or 3B, I have a hard time imagining anyone else. I don't see anyone else on the 2017-18 market list that would be a major upgrade.

 

Alexi Amarista (29) — $2.5MM club option with a $150K buyout
Darwin Barney (32)
Asdrubal Cabrera (32) — $8.5MM club option with a $2MM buyout
Zack Cozart (32)
Stephen Drew (35)
Alcides Escobar (31)
Danny Espinosa (31)
J.J. Hardy (35) — $14MM club option with a $2MM buyout
Jed Lowrie (34) — $6MM club option with a $1MM buyout
Eduardo Nunez (31)
Cliff Pennington (34)
Jhonny Peralta (36)
Adam Rosales (35)

If they were to move Manny to SS the list of available players gets a bit more intriguing.

 

Todd Frazier	3B	30	CHW	$12,000,000
Mike Moustakas	3B	28	KC	$8,700,000
Yunel Escobar	3B	34	LAA	$7,000,000
Danny Valencia	3B	32	SEA	$5,500,000
Trevor Plouffe	3B	30	OAK	$5,250,000
Jung Ho Kang	3B	29	PIT	$2,750,000
Ryan Flaherty	3B	30	BAL	$1,800,000
Jose Reyes	3B	33	NYM	$535,000
Reid Brignac	3B	31	HOU

[webbrick2010]

He has missed 45+ games the first two years of his contract

If he misses 45 again this year, do you pay him 14M for 2018?

How about if he is healthy  but post a 58 OPS+ like in the first year of his contract?

I'd move Manny to short, Schoop to 3B, and look for a fast/leadoff type guy to play 2B

or move Manny to short keep Schoop at 2B and sign a 3B.

I would have considered signing Valbuena + this offseason instead of Trumbo to have a 3B to guard against a Hardy injury and for 2018

[wildbillhiccup]

I know he's had some off field troubles, but I really like Kang's game. Also think a Frazier/Manny or Moustakas/Manny combo would be better than Hardy/Manny. 

[wildbillhiccup]

7 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

A lot of this depends on Manny's long term future on the team and how much of a desire he has to play SS.  If I had to bet I would bet on Hardy being the Orioles SS in 2018.

I agree with this. 

Long term, I don't think Manny will an Oriole after 2018. 

[backwardsk]

11 minutes ago, webbrick2010 said:

He has missed 45+ games the first two years of his contract

If he misses 45 again this year, do you pay him 14M for 2018?

How about if he is healthy  but post a 58 OPS+ like in the first year of his contract?

I'd move Manny to short, Schoop to 3B, and look for a fast/leadoff type guy to play 2B

or move Manny to short keep Schoop at 2B and sign a 3B.

I would have considered signing Valbuena + this offseason instead of Trumbo to have a 3B to guard against a Hardy injury and for 2018

If Hardy is worth over $18M like he has been three of the past four seasons, then yes, I'd bring him back at $14M.

If he is hurt again to the point that he's producing at a 2015 level, then I would not pick up the option.

I'd be interested in some names of guys who we could play at second and lead off.  And what it would cost to get them.

I do wonder what the market will be for Moustakes and Frazier in terms of years.  

Valbuena would have been a good target.

[Frobby]

19 minutes ago, webbrick2010 said:

He has missed 45+ games the first two years of his contract

If he misses 45 again this year, do you pay him 14M for 2018?

How about if he is healthy  but post a 58 OPS+ like in the first year of his contract?

You don't bring him back if he posts a 58 OPS+.   As to the injury scenario, it depends on what the injury was -- something chronic/age related, or a one-off injury that isn't really age related, like last year's, when he fouled a ball off his foot and broke a bone.    That's the kind of thing that could happen to anyone.   It also depends on how the team does and how Hardy's defense is holding up.   

[Ripken]

This really could go either way... so it likely boils down to what he does in 2017.  I'm not inclined to bring him back though.

[wildcard]

First off the vesting option is very unlikely to vest.  Hardy has trouble staying on the field for 500 AB much less 600.

I don't think the O's pick up Hardy's option but I do think they re-sign him for a lower salary.

[esmd]

If he has a good year, I think it's obvious he comes back.  If he misses a lot of time to injury or he just doesn't play well for whatever reason, I think it's an opportunity to upgrade.  I'd leave Schoop alone at 2B and move Machado to SS.  The left side will be completely changed, so I'd leave the right side alone to keep some continuity and familiarity.  Machado and Schoop have been double play partners in the minors and some in the majors last season, so I think that'll minimize and defensive issues.

Todd Frazier or Moose would look awful nice at 3B in that scenario.  Not sure where they're find the money, but that would help soften the blow of losing Manny after '18 and having to find a SS to replace him.  The lineup would still be plenty potent.

[scOtt]

2 hours ago, Aristotelian said:

So the option vests automatically with 600 ABs or the team can pick it up?

 

Just wondering, is it 600 ABs or PAs?

[Aristotelian]

49 minutes ago, scOtt said:

Just wondering, is it 600 ABs or PAs?

Good point. I believe PAs.

[Frobby]

7 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

Good point. I believe PAs.

Either way, he won't get there.