Orioles Settle With Gausman

[Dark Helmet]

11 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Yeah, but you lose credibility for the future if you declare a "file and trial" approach and then back off without a very good reason.   In this case, the settlement leans heavily towards Gausman's filed position.

Good point. Was it known Smouse wasn't going to be handling the cases when the "file and trial" approach would be taken? 

I'd hope the Orioles could reach a deal with Gausman on an extension. Something like 5/45m. 

[weams]

3 minutes ago, Dark Helmet said:

Good point. Was it known Smouse wasn't going to be handling the cases when the "file and trial" approach would be taken? 

I'd hope the Orioles could reach a deal with Gausman on an extension. Something like 5/45m. 

That's my opinion of how things go. 

[Frobby]

3 minutes ago, Dark Helmet said:

Good point. Was it known Smouse wasn't going to be handling the cases when the "file and trial" approach would be taken? 

I'd hope the Orioles could reach a deal with Gausman on an extension. Something like 5/45m. 

 

[wildcard]

I hope the O's can come to agreement with Brach too.

[Dark Helmet]

16 minutes ago, wildcard said:

I hope the O's can come to agreement with Brach too.

Isn't Brach under team control for 3 more years? He's 30. 3 more years is about the most I'd want him for anyhow 

[backwardsk]

48 minutes ago, Frobby said:

The thing about "file and trial" is, you never know what number the other side is going to file at until they file, so you really can't judge whether you're likely to win or lose.   Let's say the O's offered Gausman $3.15 mm during discussions and Gausman was at $3.95 mm.    The O's judge they're likely to win that case and so they say "file and trial."   Then Gausman files at $3.55 mm.    That changes the calculus of who's likely to win. I'm not saying that's what happened -- I don't know if agents  routinely reveal their "file" number before they actually file it, or hold it close to the vest.    But it would explain why a team says "file and trial" and then reverses its course.

When you say you're going to file and trial, you are encouraging the player's side to come in at a lower number if they believe there will be no negotiations.  When you settle after saying that, you can't employ that same tactic successfully next season.

[SteveA]

54 minutes ago, Dark Helmet said:

Great news. I didn't know you could include incentives in arbitration deals. 

This is a deal that avoids arbitration, you can do anything you want.

[Frobby]

5 minutes ago, wildcard said:

I hope the O's can come to agreement with Brach too.

I think the O's may be on the losing side of his case.    Consider Luke Gregerson.    In Arb 2 he earned $3.2 mm.   To that point in his career, he had an ERA+ of 126,  and had been worth 3.2 rWAR.   The previous season, he had an ERA+ of 152 and had been worth 1.9 rWAR.    By comparison, Brach has a career 135 ERA+, has been worth 5.1 rWAR, and in 2016 had a 216 ERA+ and was worth 2.6 rWAR.    And, it's four years later and there's been considerable inflation in the reliever market.   

Now, by fWAR Gregerson ranks above Brach, and in any event he's just one comp.    But I think Brach has a good case to make, based on both 2016 and his entire body of work.    

[mdbdotcom]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

The thing about "file and trial" is, you never know what number the other side is going to file at until they file, so you really can't judge whether you're likely to win or lose.   Let's say the O's offered Gausman $3.15 mm during discussions and Gausman was at $3.95 mm.    The O's judge they're likely to win that case and so they say "file and trial."   Then Gausman files at $3.55 mm.    That changes the calculus of who's likely to win. I'm not saying that's what happened -- I don't know if agents  routinely reveal their "file" number before they actually file it, or hold it close to the vest.    But it would explain why a team says "file and trial" and then reverses its course.

I remember one case, years ago, when the player filed for less than the team offered, because both sides altered their positions for the filing..

[Dark Helmet]

35 minutes ago, Dark Helmet said:

Isn't Brach under team control for 3 more years? He's 30. 3 more years is about the most I'd want him for anyhow 

Nvm this comment. Had a brain cramp. I was thinking they came to terms with Brach already to avoid arbitration. 

[Dark Helmet]

20 minutes ago, SteveA said:

This is a deal that avoids arbitration, you can do anything you want.

I guess I just figured since the player was under team control either way, it was straight forward.

[thezeroes]

29 minutes ago, mdbdotcom said:

I remember one case, years ago, when the player filed for less than the team offered, because both sides altered their positions for the filing..

Mike Flanagan in 1982

http://www.baseball-almanac.com/players/player.php?p=flanami01

[scOtt]

1 hour ago, wildcard said:

I hope the O's can come to agreement with Brach too.

Gausman's deal was only a 100K from the midpoint of their numbers. Brach is a 1/2 million difference. I think he ends up going to trial.

[Moose Milligan]

6 hours ago, Frobby said:

I share your opinion.    I do think the performance of the other starters also matters.    The offense and bullpen are fairly predictable, but the starting pitching could be anywhere from above average to awful.  

I think we know what we'll get from Tillman which is a solid #2 starter.  If we have 3/5 starters (not getting my hopes up for Ubaldo or Miley) deliver we can be pretty good.  

[weams]