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What Can A Healthy Dylan Bundy Achieve In 2017?


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Dylan Bundy is looking forward to entering spring training without the shadow of injuries looming over him, and he's been working on developing his cut fastball as a fourth pitch option.

"Any time I get on a mound and compete, it's going to be fun," Bundy said. "I always like more work than less. I think that's everybody that plays this game."

https://www.pressboxonline.com/2017/02/08/can-a-healthy-orioles-dylan-bundy-make-2017-even-better-than-2016

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Hopefully he can make 30 starts this year. I'm not too concerned with total innings count, only that he takes the mound every 5th day.

Hoping to see an ERA somewhere around 3.75 this year. If Bundy can reincorporate the cutter into his repertoire, without discomfort, maybe he can provide a low 3's ERA?

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39 minutes ago, Spy Fox said:

What I hope for from him is 150+ innings with an ERA of 4ish or less. I think he has a good chance of being better than that but that's the baseline I think we need. 

This.  150 healthy innings will bring a lot of good things, IMO.

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56 minutes ago, Es4M11 said:

Hopefully he can make 30 starts this year. I'm not too concerned with total innings count, only that he takes the mound every 5th day.

Hoping to see an ERA somewhere around 3.75 this year. If Bundy can reincorporate the cutter into his repertoire, without discomfort, maybe he can provide a low 3's ERA?

Same here. His cutter was his bread and butter, and if it works well, we'll be in real good shape

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1 hour ago, Spy Fox said:

What I hope for from him is 150+ innings with an ERA of 4ish or less. I think he has a good chance of being better than that but that's the baseline I think we need. 

I think he starts off strong and Dan and Buck ride him like a rented mule.  He fades in the second half.

170 innings FIP of around 3.8

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Fangraphs has a piece up today analyzing last year's AL starting pitchers with too few innings to qualify based on various measures of quality of contact:

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For a long time, it appeared that Dylan Bundy might never deliver on the extreme promise he exhibited as an amateur and low-level minor leaguer. Last season changed all that. Bundy’s traditional 2016 numbers didn’t do him justice. Hitters batted an outlandish .809 AVG-1.015 SLG (142 Unadjusted Contact Score) on liners, while his underlying data supported a much lower 96 mark. He has a go-to pop-up tendency, which, combined with his ability to limit authority in the air (79 Adjusted Contact Score), bodes well for his future as a contact manager. Over time, it wouldn’t be surprising to see improvement in both his K and BB rates. In Bundy and Kevin Gausman, the O’s still could have true No. 1-2 starters, the only thing they’ve been missing in their recent run of contention.

Of course, there is also this comment:

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Potential star alert: keep a very close eye on Eduardo Rodriguez. There weren’t enough colors in the above table to properly reflect Rodriguez’ ability to muffle contact authority; his overall, fly-ball and grounder-authority levels were all over two STD below AL average. There are clear areas to mark for improvement: his BB rate remains high, and he has allowed higher than average liner rates in both of the last two seasons. He’ll also need to modify his extreme fly-ball rate somewhat, though he might be the rare fly-ball guy who can survive and even thrive in Fenway.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2016-al-starting-pitcher-contact-management-non-qualifiers/

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3 minutes ago, Phantom said:

I think we are overly optimistic on him. The projection systems are fair to him. 150 innings with a 4.50 ERA (4.70 FiP) is what I expect. Anything better is a win.

Of course the projections are low on the innings, he only pitched 109.2 last season.  But who thought he would pitch that much?  If he's effective I expect Buck to send him out for substantially more than 150.

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54 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Of course the projections are low on the innings, he only pitched 109.2 last season.  But who thought he would pitch that much?  If he's effective I expect Buck to send him out for substantially more than 150.

His pitch efficiency will determine how many innings he can go.    Buck never let him throw 100 pitches in a game last year, and he threw 17.8 pitches per inning (which is very high).   As a result, he threw less than 6 IP in all but three starts.    Even if you throw out his first three starts where he was ramping up, he averaged only 5.24 innings per start.   He won't exceed 150 innings by much unless he starts throwing fewer pitches per inning.    Think Erik Bedard circa 2004.

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Just now, Frobby said:

His pitch efficiency will determine how many innings he can go.    Buck never let him throw 100 pitches in a game last year, and he threw 17.8 pitches per inning (which is very high).   As a result, he threw less than 6 IP in all but three starts.    Even if you throw out his first three starts where he was ramping up, he averaged only 5.24 innings per start.   He won't exceed 150 innings by much unless he starts throwing fewer pitches per inning.    Think Erik Bedard circa 2004.

Do you think Buck is going to continue to draw the line at 100 pitches?  If so, why?

 

As for Bedard, on one hand you have a guy asking to be taken out and on the other hand you have a guy that is willing to pitch both ends of a double header.  Not sure he's the best comp for Bundy.

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1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

Do you think Buck is going to continue to draw the line at 100 pitches?  If so, why?

 

As for Bedard, on one hand you have a guy asking to be taken out and on the other hand you have a guy that is willing to pitch both ends of a double header.  Not sure he's the best comp for Bundy.

Why do you always try and drum on the negative side?

What did Buck do last year in his handling of Dylan to make you believe, he is just going to throw him out there and not exercise sound judgment?

IMO, I think as Dylan matures as a pitcher, he will reduce his pitch count, and like Gausman has.

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1 minute ago, Redskins Rick said:

Why do you always try and drum on the negative side?

What did Buck do last year in his handling of Dylan to make you believe, he is just going to throw him out there and not exercise sound judgment?

IMO, I think as Dylan matures as a pitcher, he will reduce his pitch count, and like Gausman has.

Am I the only one that remembers comments to the effect that Bundy won't be limited in his pitching anymore than Gausman will in 2017?

This isn't the quote I am specifically talking about but it doesn't sound like Buck will be following a 100 pitch limit.

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Manager Buck Showalter expressed confidence that the young right-hander will be ready to handle the load of being in the starting rotation for the entire year.

http://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/news/orioles-dylan-bundy-not-expected-to-face-innings-limit-in-2017/

 

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5 minutes ago, Redskins Rick said:

Why do you always try and drum on the negative side?

What did Buck do last year in his handling of Dylan to make you believe, he is just going to throw him out there and not exercise sound judgment?

IMO, I think as Dylan matures as a pitcher, he will reduce his pitch count, and like Gausman has.

Oh yea, this part. 

I call it like I see it and readily explain my reasoning and support any positions I take.

If you have an issue with me not providing unrelenting enthusiasm you can feel free to put me on /ignore.

In this particular instance I think they were borderline negligent in how they handled Bundy last season.  To my untrained eye he looked like he was pitching on fumes the last two months of the year, and from what I have read, pitching when fatigued is a good way to get hurt.

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2 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Am I the only one that remembers comments to the effect that Bundy won't be limited in his pitching anymore than Gausman will in 2017?

This isn't the quote I am specifically talking about but it doesn't sound like Buck will be following a 100 pitch limit.

http://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/news/orioles-dylan-bundy-not-expected-to-face-innings-limit-in-2017/

 

Okay, so you think maybe its a stretch of handling the load of a Starting Rotation Pitcher, to ride him like a rented mule?

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