BaseballHQ: Gausman ready for breakout.

[weams]

Quote

Gausman could be a breakout target... In 2016, Kevin Gausman (RHP, BAL) made 30 starts in the majors for the first time in his young career, posting a 3.61 ERA over 180 IP. As he heads into his age-26 season, is there any reason to anticipate bigger and better things?

Year   IP   ERA  xERA  Ctl  Dom  Cmd  GB/LD/FB  H%/S%  hr/f  FpK  SwK   Vel  BPV

====  ===  ====  ====  ===  ===  ===  ========  =====  ====  ===  ===  ====  ===

2013* 130  4.71  4.11  1.9  8.3  4.4  42/25/33  34/65   19%  61%  10%  95.9  115

2014* 157  3.60  3.92  3.2  7.2  2.2  41/23/35  31/75    6%  57%   9%  94.8   71

2015* 130  4.28  4.42  2.5  8.2  3.3  44/17/38  30/72   13%  55%  12%  95.3   74

2016  180  3.61  3.84  2.4  8.7  3.7  44/21/35  32/78   15%  57%  11%  94.7  115

*Includes MLEs

There's a lot to like here and elsewhere in Gausman's skill history:

• Steady annual growth in Dom and Cmd led to his best xERA yet in 2016.
• If you look at his platoon splits, you'll find similar growth vs. LHP, as he's gone from a 1.8 Cmd rate against lefties in 2014 to 3.4 in 2015 and 4.8 in 2016.
• He closed out 2016 with a 2.83 ERA over his final 12 GS, though the ERA was aided somewhat by an 82% strand rate.
• Home runs remain an issue, but his 35% fly ball rate was league average while his 15% hr/f was slightly above average, suggesting there's at least a little bad luck at play there. And somewhat surprisingly, the problem has not been homer-friendly Camden Yards; Gausman has a career 1.1 HR/9 at home, versus 1.3 on the road.

With essentially a league average xERA and shoulder issues each of the last two seasons, Gausman is by no means a sure thing, but if you're looking to speculate on a young arm with the potential to take a solid step forward in 2017, he belongs on your list of targets. As the 2017 Baseball Forecaster suggested, a 3.00 ERA and 200 strikeouts could be his upside.

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[Frobby]

I think he's headed for a very good year, if healthy.    

[Can_of_corn]

I think this is the third year in a row I've seen an article like this about Gausman.

[Sanfran327]

Let's hope for the sake of our rotation that Gausman's and Bundy's performance pushes Tillman to our #3 starter after the all-star break. I am hoping that this is the year that Gausman puts it together, and that Bundy is simply flying under the radar a little bit. 

[esmd]

I think it's pretty clear he has the stuff.  It's telling that virtually every team we engage in any kind of trade talks with seems to always ask for Gausman.  Here's the thing, we're going to hit.  They key to our season is the pitching.  If Tillman, Gausman, and Bundy all have good (or better) seasons, than we're in for a fun season that could resemble 2014 and very well go deep into October.  Otherwise, we're probably a fringe playoff team that could sneak into a WC spot with results similar to last season at best, 2013/2015 at worst.