Ranking the O's starting depth

[oriole]

1) Wright

2) Wilson

3) Nuno

4) Ynoa

5) Verrett

6) Lee

7) Gunkle

 

I don't think guys like Garcia or Bleier will ever even sniff the rotation. Same goes for Lee and Gunkle too really...

[SteveA]

It certainly appears that Buck is stretching out Aquino with the intention of making him a starter this year.

Maybe I wasn't paying attention, but that has kind of taken me by surprise.   I never heard anything to indicate they envisioned him as a starter since they acquired him.

[Bahama O's Fan]

To me, Wilson sounds more ready than Wright right now.

[Rene88]

2 hours ago, Frobby said:

Nobody "easily replaces" a very good back end reliever like Brach. I'd say the odds that Wright reaches Brach's level as a reliever are 20% at best.  

And where are you getting 20%? SABR?:)

I am sorry, I couldn't disagree more.

[Frobby]

10 hours ago, Rene88 said:

And where are you getting 20%? SABR?:)

I am sorry, I couldn't disagree more.

What makes you think Wright has that in him?    He's never had a K rate that screams back end reliever.    He has no secondary pitch that comes close to Brach's slider.     And, he leaves too many pitches over the middle of the plate.   He's much more likely to be Matt Albers than Brad Brach.   

[Can_of_corn]

4 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Mike Wright, as a reliever, is Tommy Hunter.  

He might be.  At least Hunter could bring it triple digits on a good night.

[Frobby]

7 minutes ago, dan-O said:

I still like Wilson the best out of all these guys. He commands the ball and competes well. The wheels fell off of a few starts last season, but he started strong. His stuff leaves much to be desired, and that's his weakness, but he doesn't pull those full on meltdowns that Mike Wright pulls. He can eat innings if asked because he has command.

Intrigued by Ynoa.

You say Wilson has command, but to me, his bad outcomes occur when he can't get his pitches down in the strike zone.    When he's not sharp, he's extremely vulnerable.  

[Il BuonO]

28 minutes ago, Frobby said:

You say Wilson has command, but to me, his bad outcomes occur when he can't get his pitches down in the strike zone.    When he's not sharp, he's extremely vulnerable.  

Because his stuff is mediocre at best.

[FlipTheBird]

13 hours ago, SteveA said:

It certainly appears that Buck is stretching out Aquino with the intention of making him a starter this year.

Maybe I wasn't paying attention, but that has kind of taken me by surprise.   I never heard anything to indicate they envisioned him as a starter since they acquired him.

Well they're stretching him out...and then they'll see if he can hack it as a start in the minors. If not, it'll be back to the pen. Unless he suddenly explodes, I don't envision him starting a game in Baltimore this season.

[FlipTheBird]

15 hours ago, oriole said:

1) Wright

2) Wilson

3) Nuno

4) Ynoa

5) Verrett

6) Lee

7) Gunkle

 

I don't think guys like Garcia or Bleier will ever even sniff the rotation. Same goes for Lee and Gunkle too really...

I'd agree that, if we need an arm, this list is probably the order of progression.

Wright and Wilson have done it before, Buck knows what he's working with. Maybe Wright has finally put a few more pieces in place. I doubt it, but they'll know.

Ynoa I think they definitely envision as a future starter, just a matter of when they've seen enough to give him the ball. Nuno isn't great but can spot start against the right clubs.

 

[Frobby]

50 minutes ago, Il BuonO said:

Because his stuff is mediocre at best.

Yes.    There are pitchers with mediocre stuff who have success because their command is exceptional.     To date, Wilson's command has not been consistently exceptional to the point that he can get away with his mediocre stuff on a regular basis.   He has his good days, but he's really vulnerable when he's the slightest bit off.

[Rene88]

4 hours ago, Frobby said:

What makes you think Wright has that in him?    He's never had a K rate that screams back end reliever.    He has no secondary pitch that comes close to Brach's slider.     And, he leaves too many pitches over the middle of the plate.   He's much more likely to be Matt Albers than Brad Brach.   

Good points all the way around, but Jason Garcia has the same issue. People can develop pitches. Brach is not all that amazing. He had a REALLY dominate half a season. I think you (and MLB) are overestimating him. The time for trading him is now..but that is another point.

I was talking to the scout's mother who drafted Tanner Scott (in Tampa actually) and Wright came up. She said she didn't know whey they "keep throwing him out there every 5th day", she thought he would eventually be a reliever. She was very smart and I really enjoyed talking with her.

We will see how things play out.

 

 

[FlipTheBird]

14 minutes ago, Rene88 said:

Good points all the way around, but Jason Garcia has the same issue. People can develop pitches. Brach is not all that amazing. He had a REALLY dominate half a season. I think you (and MLB) are overestimating him. The time for trading him is now..but that is another point.

I was talking to the scout's mother who drafted Tanner Scott (in Tampa actually) and Wright came up. She said she didn't know whey they "keep throwing him out there every 5th day", she thought he would eventually be a reliever. She was very smart and I really enjoyed talking with her.

We will see how things play out.

 

 

You know, the only real statistical difference in Brach's numbers between 2015 and 2016 is that in 2016 he walked 13 fewer guys in the same number of innings (79 vs. 79.1). His other ratios were essentially the same. Guys didn't hit him any differently, at all. 

He was certainly more dominant before the All-Star break last year than he was after, but the end result was the same. Maybe he got worn down by overuse (with O'Day hurt). Maybe his numbers were just regressing to the norm. Point being, 2015 and 2016 were both very good years for Brad Brach. I don't think he's really being overrated.

[Rene88]

7 minutes ago, FlipTheBird said:

You know, the only real statistical difference in Brach's numbers between 2015 and 2016 is that in 2016 he walked 13 fewer guys in the same number of innings (79 vs. 79.1). His other ratios were essentially the same. Guys didn't hit him any differently, at all. 

He was certainly more dominant before the All-Star break last year than he was after, but the end result was the same. Maybe he got worn down by overuse (with O'Day hurt). Maybe his numbers were just regressing to the norm. Point being, 2015 and 2016 were both very good years for Brad Brach. I don't think he's really being overrated.

Good post sir.

[Can_of_corn]

7 minutes ago, FlipTheBird said:

You know, the only real statistical difference in Brach's numbers between 2015 and 2016 is that in 2016 he walked 13 fewer guys in the same number of innings (79 vs. 79.1). His other ratios were essentially the same. Guys didn't hit him any differently, at all. 

He was certainly more dominant before the All-Star break last year than he was after, but the end result was the same. Maybe he got worn down by overuse (with O'Day hurt). Maybe his numbers were just regressing to the norm. Point being, 2015 and 2016 were both very good years for Brad Brach. I don't think he's really being overrated.

Thirteen fewer walks in 79 innings is kinda a big difference.