Pagan--the Final Piece

[El Gordo]

Just say no. 

[SteveA]

4 hours ago, FanSince88 said:

Three questions though:  

1) Can he be counted on to hit lefties better than Rickard and Gentry would?

2) Will he be as good or better on defense (INCLUDING center field as a backup to Jones) than one of (not necessarily both) Rickard or Gentry?

3) Are you prepared to send Mancini to the minors to start the season?  

If the answer to all three of those questions is yes, then I would give him guaranteed money.  But I'm not sure the answer to all three is yes.  Had we not already traded for Seth Smith and thrown Gentry into the mix, it would be a different story.  

Gentry is a 33 year old reclamation project coming off multiple concussions and fractures in both hands, who hasn't produced at the ML level in several years.

It would be wonderful and fantastic if, finally healthy again, he produced the way he did back when he was a Ranger.  But no way should you count on that, or avoid picking up someone who can help us on the basis that "we already have Gentry".

[FanSince88]

26 minutes ago, jamalshw said:

If you add Pagan, would he improve that 25th spot on the roster? Maybe a little. If Kim cannot hit LHP well enough to merit full-time at bats, does the move from Mancini to Pagan in that spot (with Pagan in the OF and Trumbo staying at DH) merit an improvement? Again, maybe. I think the defense and offense considered, it might be an improvement and the consistent ABs for Mancini at AAA may be better for his development and value to the team (either on the roster or via trade) down the road. How about if the team is comfortable with Kim most days against LHP? In that case, it's probably a Rule 5 guy that he takes the place of. Is it worth losing Tavarez for the upgrade to Pagan? Is it an upgrade? If Santander cannot be stashed on the DL for some time, the same questions apply to him. 

When you put it that way, I tend to think Pagan would be the best fit for the 25th spot (assuming one of Rickard/Gentry takes slot 24).  He's going to offer more defense than Mancini, a better overall bat than Rickard/Gentry (though probably a push at best vs lefties), and more experience and a better bat than the Rule V guys.  However, for better or for worse, this team hates dumping their Rule V players.  And I get it, because it's become about the only way we can create organizational depth with our propensity to trade away draft picks in recent years.    

[FlipTheBird]

15 minutes ago, SteveA said:

Gentry is a 33 year old reclamation project coming off multiple concussions and fractures in both hands, who hasn't produced at the ML level in several years.

It would be wonderful and fantastic if, finally healthy again, he produced the way he did back when he was a Ranger.  But no way should you count on that, or avoid picking up someone who can help us on the basis that "we already have Gentry".

Agreed. I'm baffled by some of the folks on this board that are ready to give Gentry a roster spot, or in some cases even hand him half of a platoon. This guy's one of the longest shots in camp. He hasn't been relevant since 2013.

[FlipTheBird]

4 minutes ago, FanSince88 said:

When you put it that way, I tend to think Pagan would be the best fit for the 25th spot (assuming one of Rickard/Gentry takes slot 24).  He's going to offer more defense than Mancini, a better overall bat than Rickard/Gentry (though probably a push at best vs lefties), and more experience and a better bat than the Rule V guys.  However, for better or for worse, this team hates dumping their Rule V players.  And I get it, because it's become about the only way we can create organizational depth with our propensity to trade away draft picks in recent years.    

Rickard was better against lefties than Pagan last year, albeit in fewer at bats. .861 OPS vs .717. And Gentry, back when he was serviceable, was significantly better against left handed pitching than he was against right.

One of the things Pagan doesn't do particularly well is hit LHP, switch hitter or no. It's why I don't think he has a place with the O's. We already have a number of guys that hit right handed pitching.

[FanSince88]

18 minutes ago, SteveA said:

Gentry is a 33 year old reclamation project coming off multiple concussions and fractures in both hands, who hasn't produced at the ML level in several years.

It would be wonderful and fantastic if, finally healthy again, he produced the way he did back when he was a Ranger.  But no way should you count on that, or avoid picking up someone who can help us on the basis that "we already have Gentry".

It's more that we already have Seth Smith.  We already have two OF in Kim and Smith who can hit righties better than they hit lefties.  We don't particularly need a third of those.  Gentry can probably offer better defense than Pagan if he stays healthy. Pagan is older than Gentry and he's had his own injury problems recently.  Pagan has the better overall bat than Gentry, but for the particular role we need him for -- platooning with Kim or Smith -- his bat won't offer much more than Gentry or Rickard's would.  

I'm certainly not hung up on Gentry, but even if we dump him, we can only keep one out of Rickard/Mancini/Tavarez/Santander on the 25 man if we were to sign Pagan.  Are we comfortable dumping three out of those four to AAA/DL/Return to Rule V sender?  Maybe we are, and I'm not arguing we shouldn't.  But picking up Pagan for guaranteed $$ is not without cost in terms of dollars and opportunities.  

[FanSince88]

4 minutes ago, FlipTheBird said:

Rickard was better against lefties than Pagan last year, albeit in fewer at bats. .861 OPS vs .717. And Gentry, back when he was serviceable, was significantly better against left handed pitching than he was against right.

One of the things Pagan doesn't do particularly well is hit LHP, switch hitter or no. It's why I don't think he has a place with the O's. We already have a number of guys that hit right handed pitching.

Right, that's why I said Pagan would be a push at best compared to Rickers/Gentry vs lefties.  The flexibility of his overall bat would be nice, with its superior left handed side, but probably a luxury on a team that already includes Kim and Smith.  

[FanSince88]

9 minutes ago, FlipTheBird said:

He hasn't been relevant since 2013.

Actually, Gentry was worth 1.9 WAR in 2014, with superb rDRS numbers at all three OF positions that year in 560 total innings.  Sure his had no pop in 2014 but he played elite D, and that's exactly where we could use the help this year.  Of course, he is not a guaranteed roster spot.  But even taking Gentry out of the mix along with Bourn, and the "25th man" competition is still stiff this spring when you factor in Mancini.  

[sportsfan8703]

10 minutes ago, FanSince88 said:

Actually, Gentry was worth 1.9 WAR in 2014, with superb rDRS numbers at all three OF positions that year in 560 total innings.  Sure his had no pop in 2014 but he played elite D, and that's exactly where we could use the help this year.  Of course, he is not a guaranteed roster spot.  But even taking Gentry out of the mix along with Bourn, and the "25th man" competition is still stiff this spring when you factor in Mancini.  

That was three years ago and a ton of injuries ago.  He didn't look like he had that good of athleticism today.  The fact that he's wearing the number "14" is appropriate.