For heaven's sake say NO! to a pitcher with pick #4!!!

[DocJJ]

Reimold, Snyder, Rowell have done nothing to lead me to believe they will be MLB solid performers.

That's not to say one or two won't become solid MLB'ers, but I haven't seen anything yet from any of them to believe they will be...

[allstar1579]

Many "experts" are predicting the O's taking a pitcher at #4, but that is based on a flawed means of drafting. That is based mostly on the O's taking a bat in the last 3 years, or because Matusz is the best pitcher in the draft and still on the board. Just because he is the best pitcher doesn't mean he is a better prospect than Smoak, GBeck, Hosmer, Posey, or even Alonso necessarily.

Do we think Matusz is going to be so much better in 3 years than DCab, Guthrie, Arietta, Tillman or Loewen that it trumps how much better Smoak, or Hosmer would be than Costanzo or Vinyard, or how much better Beckham would be than Hernandez or Fahey?

[66-70-83-??]

Many "experts" are predicting the O's taking a pitcher at #4, but that is based on a flawed means of drafting. That is based mostly on the O's taking a bat in the last 3 years, or because Matusz is the best pitcher in the draft and still on the board. Just because he is the best pitcher doesn't mean he is a better prospect than Smoak, GBeck, Hosmer, Posey, or even Alonso necessarily.

Do we think Matusz is going to be so much better in 3 years than DCab, Guthrie, Arietta, Tillman or Loewen that it trumps how much better Smoak, or Hosmer would be than Costanzo or Vinyard, or how much better Beckham would be than Hernandez or Fahey?

You are right that it doesn't mean Matusz is the better prospect just because he is the top pitcher.

But, why would Matusz need to be *so much better* than the others? If it comes down to Smoak and Matusz- I hope they take the one they feel will be a better player.

I will be happy with either player.

Since pitchers are almost half of every teams roster, they should be drafted early and often in every draft, regardless of the current needs. They are a riskier position with more turnover.

Hitters, on the other hand, are easier and safer to acquire on the FA market. Getting a 1B or 3B, in the likely event that Costanza and Vinyard don't work out- is easier to fill than a potential ace.

[baltosravns2110]

Smoak's reported poor defense scares me.

If Alvarez is not available, I'd take Matusz.

I have never heard many people complain about Smoak's defense. In fact, they say he has a very above average defense and could become a premier 1b player just because of his defense, and he can hit a little as well

[allstar1579]

You are right that it doesn't mean Matusz is the better prospect just because he is the top pitcher.

But, why would Matusz need to be *so much better* than the others? If it comes down to Smoak and Matusz- I hope they take the one they feel will be a better player.

I will be happy with either player.

Since pitchers are almost half of every teams roster, they should be drafted early and often in every draft, regardless of the current needs. They are a riskier position with more turnover.

Hitters, on the other hand, are easier and safer to acquire on the FA market. Getting a 1B or 3B, in the likely event that Costanza and Vinyard don't work out- is easier to fill than a potential ace.

Pitchers and hitters are just as easy to find later in the draft, as long as you have good scouting, you'll find them both.

I left out the rest of the prospects including whoever we may get in the next 3 drafts to prove a point, if that is our rotation when he is considered ML ready, would he be able to crack it necessarily without us making room for him? Would one of those other players that AT WORST are just as good of a talent? (that was rhetorical, but yes they would)

Matusz is far from a potential ace, and that is the problem. His CEILING is as a #2 starter, and there are mechanics issues that even question that. Are you going to pass up some of the best college bats, with proven wooden bat experience, and some potential all-star infielders for a guy that at best projects to be a 2 or 3?

[66-70-83-??]

Pitchers and hitters are just as easy to find later in the draft, as long as you have good scouting, you'll find them both.

I left out the rest of the prospects including whoever we may get in the next 3 drafts to prove a point, if that is our rotation when he is considered ML ready, would he be able to crack it necessarily without us making room for him? Would one of those other players that AT WORST are just as good of a talent? (that was rhetorical, but yes they would)

Matusz is far from a potential ace, and that is the problem. His CEILING is as a #2 starter, and there are mechanics issues that even question that. Are you going to pass up some of the best college bats, with proven wooden bat experience, and some potential all-star infielders for a guy that at best projects to be a 2 or 3?

I will trust the Orioles to take the best player- whether it be Smoak, Matusz or whoever they think it is at #4.

"Far from a potential ace" ?

Exaggerate much?

To project him now as a "2 or 3" or suggest his ceiling is limited to a #2 is a tad premature.

You know- guarantees don't come with hitters either.

[birdtown]

If Mastuz is not considered to be a top of the rotation starter, why is he listed as baseball america's #2 prospect in the entire draft?

Does that speak volumes about the Beckham's, Smoak, Posey, and all the rest that are rated #3 and on down?

Bottom line is that one of the most respecteed publications on amateur baseball ranks him as the #2 prospect in the draft. If we are lucky (yes....I said lucky) enough to get him with the #4 pick I will be happy. If Alvarez or another bat is available I'm also fine with that............it's just that I will not hang my head if Mastuz puts on an O's cap in two weeks.

[allstar1579]

I will trust the Orioles to take the best player- whether it be Smoak, Matusz or whoever they think it is at #4.

"Far from a potential ace" ?

Exaggerate much?

To project him now as a "2 or 3" or suggest his ceiling is limited to a #2 is a tad premature.

You know- guarantees don't come with hitters either.

You can go back and read the debates on here for the past couple weeks, or just look around at a few sites to see projections on him, but all of them have him projected as a #2 at best, with questions about his delivery mechanics. I recommend Greg's site at MLB-Draft.com personally.

When dealing with prospects, you hear potential this and potential that all the time, when someone doesn't say the best pitcher in the draft has ace potential it should tell you how pitching shallow that draft is.

No one is talking about guarantees, nor would anyone baseball educated ever drop that word about a prospect, but the goal is to figure out which one is most likely to produce to what they are projected, and this year, the hitters just happen to be better prospects than the pitchers.

It in fact is no where near premature to label his ceiling or project him as a 2-3 because that is what this is all about PROJECTIONS because that is all you can do when drafting. You take the information from scouts, the stats, and the opinions of the experts and you try to make the best guess you can.

[allstar1579]

If Mastuz is not considered to be a top of the rotation starter, why is he listed as baseball america's #2 prospect in the entire draft?

Does that speak volumes about the Beckham's, Smoak, Posey, and all the rest that are rated #3 and on down?

Bottom line is that one of the most respecteed publications on amateur baseball ranks him as the #2 prospect in the draft. If we are lucky (yes....I said lucky) enough to get him with the #4 pick I will be happy. If Alvarez or another bat is available I'm also fine with that............it's just that I will not hang my head if Mastuz puts on an O's cap in two weeks.

Because some teams need pitching and he is the best pitcher in the draft. Do some research on him, not just what another publication rates him as, and find out why there are so many questions about him, and why he isn't projected to be a #1 starter and then tell me we are lucky for the chance to draft him. Compare him to guys like Price, Hochever and no 1 overall picks and see if the reports are as glowing for Matusz as they are for them.

[TakebackOPACY]

Because some teams need pitching and he is the best pitcher in the draft. Do some research on him, not just what another publication rates him as, and find out why there are so many questions about him, and why he isn't projected to be a #1 starter and then tell me we are lucky for the chance to draft him. Compare him to guys like Price, Hochever and no 1 overall picks and see if the reports are as glowing for Matusz as they are for them.

The same 'experts' that point out that they don't see Matusz as a #1 also have him ranked higher than Smoak or G. Beckham on their boards. Matusz is almost universally seen as a Top 4 talent in this draft despite not being seen as a potential ace.

Of course, I'm not trying to convince you to want them to take Matusz. But I want them to take the player they think has the best chance of being the biggest contributor. If they draft an offensive player, it should be because they had the offensive player on their board even to or ahead of Matusz... not measurably behind him.

[66-70-83-??]

Because some teams need pitching and he is the best pitcher in the draft. Do some research on him, not just what another publication rates him as, and find out why there are so many questions about him, and why he isn't projected to be a #1 starter and then tell me we are lucky for the chance to draft him. Compare him to guys like Price, Hochever and no 1 overall picks and see if the reports are as glowing for Matusz as they are for them.

Baseball America rankings of the top draft prospects has nothing to do with what individual team needs are.

BA ranks Matusz 2nd because they believe him to be the 2nd best prospect in the draft.

You can believe whatever you want, but stop with the hyperbole.

He isn't "far from an ace", there are not "so many questions about him", nor do all webites project him to be a #2 "at best".

There is a lot to like about Matusz. That is why the most respected publication ranks him as the 2nd best prospect.

Minorleaguebaseball.com likes him a lot too. I have done research on him and watched him pitch.

http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/events/draft_report/y2008/index.jsp?mc=matusz

Post links to all these "experts" who rank him as a #2 or #3, have lots of questions about him, etc..

He is every bit the *potential* top of the rotation starter that Beckham or Smoak is the potential all star infielders.

You can pimp Smoak or whoever you have a man crush on- but you dont need to tear down Matusz in the process.

Whoever the Orioles take at 4- be it Matusz, Smoak or one of the Beckhams, will be a good player.

[Stotle]

Just wanted to point out:

1. Jordan selected a hitter last year only because Wieters inexplicably fell to BAL. Detwiler was fitted for orange and black.

2. Matusz's mechanics are a potential issue, but I think the fact that he pitches off of his breaking stuff is the toughest thing for scouts to figure. How does it play against HiMiL hitters? ML hitters?

3. While there are some interesting options this year (re: college bats) we should all be careful not to toss around "impact bat" too freely.

4a. If we do draft a bat in round 1, we should all remember he isn't going to fix any problems with our ML team. He'll hopefully be a valuable addition in two years and able to start shouldering part of the load in four years.

4b. The draft isn't to fix current problems, though, it's to build strengths for the future. What we have or don't have in the system or on our ML team should have no bearing on who we pick.

[allstar1579]

Baseball America rankings of the top draft prospects has nothing to do with what individual team needs are.

BA ranks Matusz 2nd because they believe him to be the 2nd best prospect in the draft.

You can believe whatever you want, but stop with the hyperbole.

He isn't "far from an ace", there are not "so many questions about him", nor do all webites project him to be a #2 "at best".

There is a lot to like about Matusz. That is why the most respected publication ranks him as the 2nd best prospect.

Minorleaguebaseball.com likes him a lot too. I have done research on him and watched him pitch.

http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/events/draft_report/y2008/index.jsp?mc=matusz

Post links to all these "experts" who rank him as a #2 or #3, have lots of questions about him, etc..

He is every bit the *potential* top of the rotation starter that Beckham or Smoak is the potential all star infielders.

You can pimp Smoak or whoever you have a man crush on- but you dont need to tear down Matusz in the process.

Whoever the Orioles take at 4- be it Matusz, Smoak or one of the Beckhams, will be a good player.

Ok, first off, don't make this a personal attack on me because you think I am "tearing down Matusz" in some personal attack. Heaven forbid I don't agree with who you would like to take, and getting an attitude about it is not about to make me change my mind. Assuming I have a man-crush or whatever you call it on anyone is a) offensive, and b) idiotic, and i really just lost all respect for this disagreement with you.

To humor you, I submit one easily found website which shares my opinion with reasoning and pictures in case you need them.

http://www.baseball-intellect.com/Articles/college-draft-brian-matusz.html

Not to mention a quote from Keith Law in a recent chat:

Brett (WI): Keith, if Matusz is "the surest of sure things" in this draft (someone else's words), then why isn't he getting more interest from the Rays at #1? The absence of a clear cut #1 is what is leading them to Posey, so I thought Matusz would be of interest from them as well. Is their need of a catcher greater than another talented arm in that organization?

SportsNation Keith Law: (1:19 PM ET ) Because he's not the surest of sure things. He doesn't pitch with his fastball, and his delivery isn't pretty. I'm not sure where the quote's from, but I don't see him that way, and I don't think I've talked to any scout who does either.

I don't have a "man-crush" on anyone, I believe in taking the best available player, and when players are evenly ranked then I believe in taking the more valuable position. I believe that there are enough other players that are better than Matusz on an overall talent level that I don't believe he should be taken 4th overall. If you have a different opinion, fine, you are entitled, but get all huffy at me and accuse me of having a man crush because I don't agree with your opinion. Maybe you should spend some time reading back through the past month or two of the draft forum and see where these conversations on certain players has come from before you start attacking me for not agreeing with you.

[NoVaO]

Ok, first off, don't make this a personal attack on me because you think I am "tearing down Matusz" in some personal attack. Heaven forbid I don't agree with who you would like to take, and getting an attitude about it is not about to make me change my mind. Assuming I have a man-crush or whatever you call it on anyone is a) offensive, and b) idiotic, and i really just lost all respect for this disagreement with you.

To humor you, I submit one easily found website which shares my opinion with reasoning and pictures in case you need them.

http://www.baseball-intellect.com/Articles/college-draft-brian-matusz.html

Not to mention a quote from Keith Law in a recent chat:

Brett (WI): Keith, if Matusz is "the surest of sure things" in this draft (someone else's words), then why isn't he getting more interest from the Rays at #1? The absence of a clear cut #1 is what is leading them to Posey, so I thought Matusz would be of interest from them as well. Is their need of a catcher greater than another talented arm in that organization?

SportsNation Keith Law: (1:19 PM ET ) Because he's not the surest of sure things. He doesn't pitch with his fastball, and his delivery isn't pretty. I'm not sure where the quote's from, but I don't see him that way, and I don't think I've talked to any scout who does either.

I don't have a "man-crush" on anyone, I believe in taking the best available player, and when players are evenly ranked then I believe in taking the more valuable position. I believe that there are enough other players that are better than Matusz on an overall talent level that I don't believe he should be taken 4th overall. If you have a different opinion, fine, you are entitled, but get all huffy at me and accuse me of having a man crush because I don't agree with your opinion. Maybe you should spend some time reading back through the past month or two of the draft forum and see where these conversations on certain players has come from before you start attacking me for not agreeing with you.

lol, thanks for the link, though I'm not sure I qualify as an expert.

I actually do agree with you though...maybe not with the same intensity, but I think people may overrate his safe factor. I go back to 2006 when Greg Reynolds was drafted with the #2 pick or in 2004 when Jeremy Sowers was drafted with the #6 pick. You have these guys praised for great command, and feel for pitching, and pitchability, but then you see they don't really have the greatest stuff in the world.

Matusz should reach the majors and be a productive pitcher, but I don't think the upside goes higher than a #2. I think he is more like a solid #3 or a very good #4. But it is true there are adjustments that can be made to boost the quality of his stuff though it is easier said than done.

I would prefer to draft a hitter, but if we were to draft a pitcher I would rather it be Crow even though he is more of an injury risk because he possesses both top-level stuff and command and those are the pitchers that usually reach their full potential

[McNulty]

Maybe its just me, but I'm never going to be thrilled taking a guy who is working backwards in college.