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X Factors - AL East 2017 Edition

25 Nuggets

By 25 Nuggets
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25 Nuggets Hangout Grand Counsel

25 Nuggets

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We've been over roster movement and have a general idea of the power structure of the AL East going into the 2017 season.  Boston looks to be the clear favorite, with Toronto in the Wild Card mix, and Baltimore / New York depending on your source, and Tampa Bay in the rear.  But years past have proven that these teams don't finish the way they look on paper.  If I were to pick one player for each team that can swing the fortunes of the season, here they are:

Pablo Sandoval, Boston

The Red Sox lineup is going to take a hit from the loss of David Ortiz, everyone knows that.  But a smaller move on the side is being overlooked, and that is the trade of Travis Shaw in part to get Tyler Thornburg.  Shaw was a 2-win player despite having his bat disappear post all-star break.  He graded out very well defensively and is expected to be the Brewers' everyday 3B.  While the loss of Ortiz is mitigated by moving Hanley Ramirez to DH and signing Mitch Moreland at 1B (an offensive downgrade at both positions), the role of 3B falls squarely on the incredible shrinking Panda.  Sandoval is in better shape than perhaps at any point in his career - but will that translate to better performance?  If he puts up something like his last season in San Francisco (a 3-win season), the lineup will have no real holes in it.  If he is below replacement again, the team will have to use Brock Holt at 3B and severely weaken their bench.  With their pitching and team defense, Boston can probably still win the AL East with replacement level 3B play... but I don't know if it's enough for a championship.

Troy Tulowitzki, Toronto

Like the Red Sox, the Blue Jays are losing a huge bat from their lineup in Endwin Encarnacion, replacing him with a downgrade (Kendrys Morales).  The bottom of their lineup against RHP looks like Justin Smoak (.705 OPS last year), Kevin Pillar (.679) and Ezequel Carrera (.679 again).  Their lineup is going to have to rely heavily on Josh Donaldson, an aging Jose Bautista... and Troy Tulowitzki, who last year played more games (131) than any season since 2011.  Tulo's injury history is significant, and if he has a significant injury, the Jays will have to replace him with Darwin Barney or Ryan Goins, two more poor hitters.  Like Boston, Toronto's pitching is strong, particularly in the rotation... but they are thin on position players.

J.J. Hardy, Baltimore

Tulowitzki redux.  Hardy, while not the hitter Tulo is, provides terrific defense and a steady presence at SS.  But he is at the end of his career.  The season he provided last year (2 wins) is good enough to round out the lineup and keep the Orioles focusing on the obvious problems like the rotation and outfield defense.  If he misses a few games, Manny Machado can amply fill in at SS and the team can cobble together something at 3B.  If he misses half the season, or puts up a replacement-level season like in 2015, the team may have one problem too many.  It seems we have a run on aging, injury-riddled infielders, but in today's game, you need production from everywhere because there is depth at every position on the field.  If your shortstop can't at least hit a little, and defend, you are behind the curve.

C.C. Sabathia, New York

We have a pretty good idea of what the Yankees plan is.  Their young players will develop more, and they will bop a few more HR than last year.  Their bullpen will be good, but with one less "monster head" at the back end.  They will stay the course and shed a bunch more dead weight at the end of the year.  But if you ask me what the biggest key to their out-performing expectations the past few years was, it is their surprisingly good rotation.  The clock is ticking on Masahiro Tanaka's arm - but he pitched like a real ace in 2016 and he keeps plugging away without surgery.  What perhaps embodies the Yankees of the past few seasons more than any other player is C.C. Sabathia.  Sabathia was toast... done... after his shortened 2014 season ending in microfracture surgery on his right knee.  Yet he cobbled together a mediocre season in 2015... and followed that up with 180 innings of 111 ERA+ pitching in 2016.  Three wins???  Sabathia is entering Hall of Fame conversation.  If you don't believe me, look at both the active wins and active WAR for pitchers leaders.  If Sabathia can perform this magic one more time, he will save the rotation again and the Yankees will be right in the thick of the wild card hunt.  Of course, Tanaka has to stay on the mound too...

Alex Cobb, Tampa Bay

For all we talk of the misery of the Rays offense last season (14th in runs scored, 15th in batting average) their pitching staff had a lower ERA+ (97) than their offense's OPS+ (100).  The Rays are just not built to be an offensive juggernaut.  They did so well in years past because their young pitchers performed.  Last year, despite many promising names, that just didn't happen.  I could really pick from a number of guys -- but I will go with the one that has the most room for improvement, T.J. surgery recoveree Alex Cobb.  The rotation looks a lot better with Cobb pitching 100%.  Without him... Matt Moore and Drew Smyly are both gone, and Jose De Leon is a rookie changing leagues.  That would put a lot of pressure on Chris Archer and Jake Odorizzi - and Archer underperformed last year.

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25 Nuggets Hangout Grand Counsel

25 Nuggets

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On another point, there's probably more than one player per team that could swing the season.    There are just so many variables.   It's one of the things I love about the sport.  

Absolutely.  I had to limit it to one player per team or else I would write a book.  ^_^

I wanted to mention players that other people may not be talking about.

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Spy Fox Hangout Veteran Council

Spy Fox

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If I had to pick one X Factor for the O's, I'd pick Bundy or Jimenez. Rotation performance is our biggest question mark by far, and those are the two least predictable guys. But on the offensive side, I agree with Hardy. Not because we need a huge offensive performance from him, but because the dropoff from Manny to whoever fills in for him at 3b is... a lot. 

Good choices for the other teams in the division. We gotta hope Panda falls flat because that offense is already tough enough, even without Ortiz. 

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FlipTheBird All-Star

FlipTheBird

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If I had to pick one X Factor for the O's, I'd pick Bundy or Jimenez. Rotation performance is our biggest question mark by far, and those are the two least predictable guys. But on the offensive side, I agree with Hardy. Not because we need a huge offensive performance from him, but because the dropoff from Manny to whoever fills in for him at 3b is... a lot. 

Good choices for the other teams in the division. We gotta hope Panda falls flat because that offense is already tough enough, even without Ortiz. 

I'd concur that for the O's the real X-Factor is someone in the rotation stepping up. Someone has to exceed expectations for this team to take another step forward.

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