What do Roch's comments on Mancini mean?

[wildcard]

OK, weigh in.  What is Roch saying.  Trade coming?  Trumbo to the outfield? Blowing smoke?  Explain this one.

Quote

Mancini will get through it, and that includes the period when the Orioles go back to 12 pitchers. He’s going to be on the major league roster this summer if he’s healthy. Bank on it.

http://www.masnsports.com/school-of-roch/2017/03/random-thoughts-and-observations-on-an-off-day.html

[Aristotelian]

It means Santander hasn't done jack.

[Can_of_corn]

Roch's "bank on its" shouldn't be banked on.

[Frobby]

He's saying Mancini's good enough where he'll end up playing a substantial amount in the majors this year, whether or not he's sent to Norfolk early in the year.   

[wildcard]

16 minutes ago, Frobby said:

He's saying Mancini's good enough where he'll end up playing a substantial amount in the majors this year, whether or not he's sent to Norfolk early in the year.   

Saying that Mancini is good enough to play in the majors and saying he will be on the major league roster are two different things.   Does this mean a trade will occur?   How is roster room made?

[wildcard]

2 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Don't think too much.  Roch is giving his opinion.

Roch can count.  He knows how many players can be on a 25 man roster at the same  time.  He has more inside information than most of us.   If he is stating his opinion he has come to that opinion from some kind of information.   What do you think leads him to make this statement?

[wildcard]

2 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

I already used logic and common sense to answer.

sure, Roch's opinion is that both Rickard and Gentry are on the 25 man roster and Mancini is not at the point they go with 12 pitchers.  That's the meat of the blog.  Mancini could see some time up there due to injury or poor performance by others.

Frobby said virtually the same thing.

He's saying Mancini's good enough where he'll end up playing a substantial amount in the majors this year, whether or not he's sent to Norfolk early in the year. 

 

 

If you prefer to go with a conspiracy theory, go right ahead.   Roch can't predict any Oriole moves one week ahead of time.   You think he can now predict what's going to happen 2 or 3 months from now?

 

If you or Roch are relying on injuries to make room on the roster then either the injuries have to be Davis or Trumbo, or Trumbo is playing in the outfield.    Any injury to anyone else do not get Mancini an playing time and therefore probably does not lead to him being on the O's major league roster.

[Babypowder]

14 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

I already used logic and common sense to answer.

sure, Roch's opinion is that both Rickard and Gentry are on the 25 man roster and Mancini is not at the point they go with 12 pitchers.  That's the meat of the blog.  Mancini could see some time up there due to injury or poor performance by others.

Frobby said virtually the same thing.

He's saying Mancini's good enough where he'll end up playing a substantial amount in the majors this year, whether or not he's sent to Norfolk early in the year. 

 

 

If you prefer to go with a conspiracy theory, go right ahead.   Roch can't predict any Oriole moves one week ahead of time.   You think he can now predict what's going to happen 2 or 3 months from now?

 

Conspiracy theories and wild conclusions based on microscopic sample sizes are what wildcard does. I for one embrace and encourage his craziness. It's entertaining.

[wildcard]

10 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Right.  Roch's "bank on it" means he believe's one of those things happen.  You think it means he's guaranteeing it or a trade happens.

I am looking for the answer to what Roch is thinking.  What he knows that leads him to make the statement.

[Babypowder]

1 minute ago, wildcard said:

I am looking for the answer to what Roch is thinking.  What he knows that leads him to make the statement.

He knows it is very unlikely Mancini is never on the major league roster this season due to circumstances we don't see now. Someone will get hurt, someone will be inneffective. Mancini will be on the roster at some point. It's a near certainty.

[Frobby]

41 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Roch can count.  He knows how many players can be on a 25 man roster at the same  time.  He has more inside information than most of us.   If he is stating his opinion he has come to that opinion from some kind of information.   What do you think leads him to make this statement?

You're making way too much out of this.    Lots of things happen during a season that cause the 25-man roster to change.    An injury to Davis, Trumbo, or any of the outfielders might result in a call-up for Mancini.    Or maybe Rickard or Gentry don't play well and Buck decides to option/release one of them and go with Trumbo in RF against LHP.   All Roch is saying is that he thinks Mancini will spend some time in Baltimore this season.    He's not hinting that he has information about some move the Orioles are planning.   

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, wildcard said:

I am looking for the answer to what Roch is thinking.  What he knows that leads him to make the statement.

I don't think it is anything more than him just getting in his required writing for the day.

[Aristotelian]

It appears the Orioles believe in Mancini as an everyday player long term, but not short term. They do not want him to be a weak side platoon DH, so he starts in Norfolk. Without any inside information, Roch can still say "bank on it" because he has many plausible pathways back to the MLB Roster:

1. Injury to Davis, Trumbo, Kim, or Smith, Mancini becomes every day DH

2. The league figures out Kim and he doesn't perform

3. Smith doesn't perform due to age

4. Mancini simply plays his way onto the team by mashing AAA pitching

5. Injury to Rickard or Gentry, Trumbo is needed to play RF and Mancini is needed to be part-time DH

6. I know Roch says "summer", but worst case scenario he is a September callup

[wildcard]

Thanks for everyones thoughts.

[oriole]

Mancini is blocked on this team and in my opinion, he has no future with the Orioles. I still believe it was awful decision making to pay Trumbo a big contract when you have a decent replacement in the minors ready to play for league minimum. I'd have loved to see that money go to an everyday corner OF. Mancini is playing to be traded right now. The better he does, the better player the Orioles can get in return. Obviously no blockbusters but maybe a useful SP depth piece?