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With two weeks of ST to go, where are the O's?


wildcard

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The last two weeks are the hardest.   Regulars play more. Starting pitchers stretch to 4 to 6 innings.  Its a test for the fringe players.

Outfield:  Rickard has made the majors.   Gentry has a big lead on getting the 5th spot.  Smith's hamstring is something to watch. 

Starters:  Gausman, Bundy.   Then Jimenez is leading for the 3rd spot.  Miley will get the fourth.   The fifth on April 15 is wide open.  No one has stepped up so far.  Tillman is probably out for at least the first month and maybe a lot more.

Still in it - Lee, Ynoa, Aquino, Wright.  Nuno could be stretched to 4 innings over the next two weeks if that is something the O's decide to do.

Relievers:  Top 5 look good.  That includes Hart.   6th is probably Nuno if he is not a starter.  Look out for Bleier.   He is holding his own which is more then can be said for several others.  Time for someone else to step up.  It hasn't happened yet.  One of the fifth starters could get the last spot. Liranzo is showing a great arm but the walks and this age probably sent him to the minors to start the season.

14th position player until April 15.  Mancini is earning it but he would just be a pinch hitter on a team with a strong lineup.   Tavarez is just a pinch runner with Rickard and Gentry ahead of him in the outfield.

Rule 5 guys:  It would appear that the O's are working hard to DL Santander.  Tavarez could stay as the14th position player or if Smith's hamstring does not heal.  But he probably gets returned at some point.   Boston does not value him so the O's could trade for him or buy him.

One myth that has appeared in the last few days is that Tavarez is converting from 2B and is still learning the outfield position.  Truth is Tavarez has played nothing but the outfield for the last 5 years.   If he hasn't learned to play the outfield in that time another year is probably not going to help.  Maybe the Florida winds are causing him problems but he is a speedy guy who has had some problems tracking balls this spring.

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12 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

Good post. I would add Drake has gone from being the favorite for the 6th spot to heading for DFA despite being out of options. Big decision there if he is not in the top 7.

Drake has looked more like a 30 year old AAAA pitcher who is out of options this spring.  He probably can't make the team if he pitches like that the rest of way.  They probably hold on to him until just before opening day and then DFA him.   He could pass through waivers. Drake has never been outrighted so if he passes through waivers he has to accept an assignment to Norfolk.

The only thing I see that could save him is  if no one else steps up.

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Good assessment. My inclination, knowing the Orioles, is to think they'll go with Wright as the 5th starter because they know him best and he has some experience. But the others have pitched better, so maybe they'll surprise me.

It's a shame about Mancini, but I just don't see how they can justify letting him rot on the bench waiting to pinch hit. I still think at some point they need to explore dealing him unless PECOTA gets it right this year and the O's  are out of the race in July. Then maybe they'll move Trumbo (or, less likely because of his contract, Davis). Otherwise Mancini is blocked for three years and keeping him in Norfolk won't do anybody any good.

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17 minutes ago, Moondoggie said:

Good assessment. My inclination, knowing the Orioles, is to think they'll go with Wright as the 5th starter because they know him best and he has some experience. But the others have pitched better, so maybe they'll surprise me.

It's a shame about Mancini, but I just don't see how they can justify letting him rot on the bench waiting to pinch hit. I still think at some point they need to explore dealing him unless PECOTA gets it right this year and the O's  are out of the race in July. Then maybe they'll move Trumbo (or, less likely because of his contract, Davis). Otherwise Mancini is blocked for three years and keeping him in Norfolk won't do anybody any good.

I think Mancini opened some eyes this spring.  Gave O's management some confidence that he will hit in the majors.  Maybe not as many homers as Trumbo but a higher OBP.   On the other hand I don't think they have much confidence in his defense at first base.  He is not on Davis' level defensively.    The O's may seek to trade Trumbo in July if Mancini continues to show well.  The O's could use the money elsewhere and receive similar overall production from Mancini at DH.

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Remember, Buck and Dan do whatever they can to not "lose" players. This means keeping guys without options on the roster or DLing them temporarily just to keep them. A guy like Seth Smith might start the season on the DL, just to keep one of the rule V guys at the start of the season. What about Flaherty? Is he back healthy? If not, who is the utility guy?

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13 minutes ago, Bahama O's Fan said:

Remember, Buck and Dan do whatever they can to not "lose" players. This means keeping guys without options on the roster or DLing them temporarily just to keep them. A guy like Seth Smith might start the season on the DL, just to keep one of the rule V guys at the start of the season. What about Flaherty? Is he back healthy? If not, who is the utility guy?

I would sooner think that the O's would DL Smith for a short time hoping to get him healthy for the long term.  If they believe the hamstring might cause him problems early. 

Janish is probably Flaherty's backup.

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4 hours ago, wildcard said:

I think Mancini opened some eyes this spring.  Gave O's management some confidence that he will hit in the majors.  Maybe not as many homers as Trumbo but a higher OBP.   On the other hand I don't think they have much confidence in his defense at first base.  He is not on Davis' level defensively.    The O's may seek to trade Trumbo in July if Mancini continues to show well.  The O's could use the money elsewhere and receive similar overall production from Mancini at DH.

Yeah. Of course we can't know for sure until he does it over a sustained period at the big league level, but he does look like a guy who can carve out a career with his bat. That's why I really didn't see the point of signing Trumbo this year. But then I didn't see the point of signing Davis to a long-term contract last year with Trumbo to fill the position for the season. I thought they could have used the money elsewhere (maybe offering Manny the same deal to extend or to sign a pitcher or outfielder). So what do I know?

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10 hours ago, wildcard said:

I think Mancini opened some eyes this spring.  Gave O's management some confidence that he will hit in the majors.  Maybe not as many homers as Trumbo but a higher OBP.   On the other hand I don't think they have much confidence in his defense at first base.  He is not on Davis' level defensively.    The O's may seek to trade Trumbo in July if Mancini continues to show well.  The O's could use the money elsewhere and receive similar overall production from Mancini at DH.

Maybe in fantasy baseball. But you don't sign a guy to that contract to turn arounbd and trade him in July in real baseball. 

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Just now, El Gordo said:

Maybe in fantasy baseball. But you don't sign a guy to that contract to turn arounbd and trade him in July in real baseball. 

I don't see why any of the other teams that were not interested during the offseason would suddenly be interested in July.  Unless you think the draft pick hurt him that badly.

O's would be lucky to get someone to take his whole salary.

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