Disagreeing with Roch on the roster

[wildcard]

I found a few things in Roch's blog this morning that I didn't agree with.  Let's see how you feel.

http://www.masnsports.com/school-of-roch/2017/03/more-roster-reduction-is-coming.html

1) Roch: Pena is out of options, however, and also would have to pass through waivers to return to Norfolk.

Me:  Yes,  Pena is out of options and not on the 40 man roster so he doesn't have to be put on waivers to be sent to Norfolk.

2) Roch: Tyler Wilson and Logan Verrett could be competing for one bullpen spot

Me: Well could be but probably not.  Neither has pitched well enough to nail down a spot on the major league roster.  Roch does not even mention Jayson Aquino.   I think there is a good chance that the last spot in the pen goes to him if he continues to pitch well. Jayson has pitched much better as a reliever than as a starter.

3) Roch: if Vidal Nuno sticks as the left-handed long man.

Me: If is the right word here.  Nuno is not pitching well.  He has shown very little loyalty to the O's season by going the WBC.  He has an option left.  Dan Duquette is an active guy this time of year.  I would not be surprised  to  see a new veteran reliever in the camp as other teams cut down their roster.    I don't think the O's are committed to keeping  Nuno on the 25 man roster if he is not pitching well.  He better start pitching well soon.

4) Me: There is no mention in Roch's blog about Smith.  Jim Duquette said on Saturday that how the cold weather impacts Smith hamstring is a big factor.   The O's will test Smith's injury in Florida with an eye toward how it will do after the team goes north.   They have the 14th position player spot open for one of the Rule 5 guys or Mancini.  Smith represents an extra spot that might become available.

[sportsfan8703]

His bullpen is looking like...

Britton

O'day

Brach

Givens

Hart

Wilson/Verrett

Nuno

That means that Drake is DFA'd. Wright, Aquino, Ynoa, Wilson/Verret, Gunkel are the AAA rotation. 

[Tony-OH]

1 hour ago, wildcard said:

I found a few things in Roch's blog this morning that I didn't agree with.  Let's see how you feel.

http://www.masnsports.com/school-of-roch/2017/03/more-roster-reduction-is-coming.html

1) Roch: Pena is out of options, however, and also would have to pass through waivers to return to Norfolk.

Me:  Yes,  Pena is out of options and not on the 40 man roster so he doesn't have to be put on waivers to be sent to Norfolk.

2) Roch: Tyler Wilson and Logan Verrett could be competing for one bullpen spot

Me: Well could be but probably not.  Neither has pitched well enough to nail down a spot on the major league roster.  Roch does not even mention Jayson Aquino.   I think there is a good chance that the last spot in the pen goes to him if he continues to pitch well. Jayson has pitched much better as a reliever than as a starter.

3) Roch: if Vidal Nuno sticks as the left-handed long man.

Me: If is the right word here.  Nuno is not pitching well.  He has shown very little loyalty to the O's season by going the WBC.  He has an option left.  Dan Duquette is an active guy this time of year.  I would not be surprised  to  see a new veteran reliever in the camp as other teams cut down their roster.    I don't think the O's are committed to keeping  Nuno on the 25 man roster if he is not pitching well.  He better start pitching well soon.

4) Me: There is no mention in Roch's blog about Smith.  Jim Duquette said on Saturday that how the cold weather impacts Smith hamstring is a big factor.   The O's will test Smith's injury in Florida with an eye toward how it will do after the team goes north.   They have the 14th position player spot open for one of the Rule 5 guys or Mancini.  Smith represents an extra spot that might become available.

With all due respect, you put way too much emphasis on spring training stats. Sure significantly good or bad numbers could effect a bubble player on the few open jobs, but Buck and Dan go off track record way more than spring training stats. For pitchers they are looking at stuff, not necessarily results.

Wilson and Verrett could very well be competing for the a bullpen spot, especially with Drake's stuff being down this spring. The Orioles may want a middle guy with some length to go along with Nuno in the bullpen. I would be shocked if Nuno is sent to the minors. I don't buy the "lack of loyalty" thing for going to the WBC and he had a 1.80 ERA until he had a bad outing yesterday. The guy has pitched in 16 minor league games since 2014 and pitched pretty well last year in relief. The Orioles prefer their long man to be left-handed and I don't think they are jumping Aquino from Double-A over Nuno.

As for Wilson and Verrett, they provide length and may be more suited for that role than as a starter. Verrett pitched to a 2.84 ERA with a 2.27 K/BB in 31.2 IP as a reliever last year. Wilson had a 3.86 ERA and a 3.20 K/BB in 21 relief innings.  Again, track record is more important than a handful of spring training innings and having two relievers in your pen who can provide some length (Nuno and one of these guys) is a great way to keep your big four strong. 

Now saying that, I could see Drake still winning a spot on this team and Verrett and Wilson being demoted to start the season. If Drake struggles once the season starts he could be DFA'd since it's easier to get a guy through waivers in early April then at the end of spring training.

Since the Orioles don't need a 5th starter until the 15th, they can DL Tillman and keep Drake plus one of Wilson/Verrett. That's what I think will happen as of today.

[backwardsk]

I do think a Smith DL stint is possibly in play.  That could allow them to keep both Tavarez and Santander to start the season.

[Can_of_corn]

8 minutes ago, backwardsk said:

I do think a Smith DL stint is possibly in play.  That could allow them to keep both Tavarez and Santander to start the season.

That would eliminate any substantial DL shenanigans for Santander.

[wildcard]

1 hour ago, Tony-OH said:

With all due respect, you put way too much emphasis on spring training stats. Sure significantly good or bad numbers could effect a bubble player on the few open jobs, but Buck and Dan go off track record way more than spring training stats. For pitchers they are looking at stuff, not necessarily results.

Wilson and Verrett could very well be competing for the a bullpen spot, especially with Drake's stuff being down this spring. The Orioles may want a middle guy with some length to go along with Nuno in the bullpen. I would be shocked if Nuno is sent to the minors. I don't buy the "lack of loyalty" thing for going to the WBC and he had a 1.80 ERA until he had a bad outing yesterday. The guy has pitched in 16 minor league games since 2014 and pitched pretty well last year in relief. The Orioles prefer their long man to be left-handed and I don't think they are jumping Aquino from Double-A over Nuno.

As for Wilson and Verrett, they provide length and may be more suited for that role than as a starter. Verrett pitched to a 2.84 ERA with a 2.27 K/BB in 31.2 IP as a reliever last year. Wilson had a 3.86 ERA and a 3.20 K/BB in 21 relief innings.  Again, track record is more important than a handful of spring training innings and having two relievers in your pen who can provide some length (Nuno and one of these guys) is a great way to keep your big four strong. 

Now saying that, I could see Drake still winning a spot on this team and Verrett and Wilson being demoted to start the season. If Drake struggles once the season starts he could be DFA'd since it's easier to get a guy through waivers in early April then at the end of spring training.

Since the Orioles don't need a 5th starter until the 15th, they can DL Tillman and keep Drake plus one of Wilson/Verrett. That's what I think will happen as of today.

I put a lot of emphasis on who is pitching well now.  It just happens to be ST.  If they can't get minor leaguers out how will they get major leaguers out?

I didn't jump Aquino over Nuno.  I jumped him over Wilson and Verrett.

I said if Nuno doesn't begin pitching well, Dan may add a veteran pitcher that is pitching well.

[FlipTheBird]

1 hour ago, wildcard said:

I put a lot of emphasis on who is pitching well now.  It just happens to be ST.  If they can't get minor leaguers out how will they get major leaguers out?

I didn't jump Aquino over Nuno.  I jumped him over Wilson and Verrett.

I said if Nuno doesn't begin pitching well, Dan may add a veteran pitcher that is pitching well.

It's spring training. Guys are working on things. Trying new stuff. Sometimes they don't even use half their repertoire in a game. The pitching stats, more than anything else, are essentially useless.

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, wildcard said:

I put a lot of emphasis on who is pitching well now.  It just happens to be ST.  If they can't get minor leaguers out how will they get major leaguers out?

I didn't jump Aquino over Nuno.  I jumped him over Wilson and Verrett.

I said if Nuno doesn't begin pitching well, Dan may add a veteran pitcher that is pitching well.

I think Nuno's track record puts him on the team unless the O's think there's something wrong with him.  

[Tony-OH]

1 hour ago, wildcard said:

I put a lot of emphasis on who is pitching well now.  It just happens to be ST.  If they can't get minor leaguers out how will they get major leaguers out?

I didn't jump Aquino over Nuno.  I jumped him over Wilson and Verrett.

I said if Nuno doesn't begin pitching well, Dan may add a veteran pitcher that is pitching well.

Isn't the at the same thing as what I said?  

As for the second point I highlighted, Double-A lefties hit .341 off him. Wouldn't you'd like to see him pitch every five days at Norfolk and see if his improved breaking ball plays well against AAA hitters before throwing him into the big leagues? 

[Rene88]

3 hours ago, dan-O said:

Agree. Neither Wilson nor Verrett will make this team, IMO. 

Great thread and agree on points by Wildcard. No clue where the Pena thing is coming from?

Nuno doesn't deserve to be on the team, but DD has inadequately prepared us for SP injuries as usual. He may make it if nobody else is found on the waiver wire. Keep in mind the Red Sox are looking too.

[clapdiddy]

1 minute ago, dan-O said:

If Drake makes this team I'll be extremely disappointed. He melted down last season and he's melting down in Spring. 

I won't be disappointed if he makes the team, but I'm not at all impressed with Drake.   He's put up very good numbers at AAA, but from what I've seen of him, he doesn't seem like he has the stuff to get Major League hitters out.

[Moondoggie]

3 hours ago, RZNJ said:

Every day that goes by without Santander in the lineup or the outfield puts him closer to DL territory.   Same for Seth Smith.    Both on the DL creates tons of space on the 25 man roster and probably puts Mark Trumbo in RF to start the season.    I could see Mancini,  Rickard, and Gentry all on the roster.  Tavarez possibly instead of Gentry.    Tavarez is playing CF today and he's been playing almost strictly LF so far.    Let's see if he gets a game or two in RF.

The good results from the MRA on his elbow (a "little inflammation") might make it impossible for the Orioles to DL him. He said he'd be ready to go in a few days. Cleveland wants him back and will surely complain if the Orioles try to pull a fast one.

[Rene88]

8 minutes ago, Moondoggie said:

The good results from the MRA on his elbow (a "little inflammation") might make it impossible for the Orioles to DL him. He said he'd be ready to go in a few days. Cleveland wants him back and will surely complain if the Orioles try to pull a fast one.

But how can you truly evaluate him defensively? I am pretty sure a 15-day DL stint won't ruffle too many feathers. Beyond that, the O's do have a history and I agree, but this is not the same IMO.

[Rene88]

45 minutes ago, clapdiddy said:

I won't be disappointed if he makes the team, but I'm not at all impressed with Drake.   He's put up very good numbers at AAA, but from what I've seen of him, he doesn't seem like he has the stuff to get Major League hitters out.

In all fairness, he isn't getting minor league hitters out either.

[tntoriole]

3 minutes ago, Rene88 said:

In all fairness, he isn't getting minor league hitters out either.

I have wanted him to make it for years and even mediocre numbers would be ok, but I have changed my mind and would designate him just before the last reduction deadline, hoping he gets through waivers, but frankly I do not think he can help us this year as badly as he is throwing.