AL East position comparisons

[PaulFolk]

So, how do the Orioles stack up against their AL East opponents at every position? I took a shot at ranking them all in my latest series for BaltimoreBaseball.

First up: the infield. http://www.baltimorebaseball.com/2017/03/31/2017-al-east-positional-rankings-infielders/

Anyone you think is ranked too high or too low? Third base might be a controversial one.

[Tryptamine]

No issues with C, though if Ramos was healthy they'd easily be #2. No real issues with 1B though if you had used Hanley instead it would have changed things. 2B is way way off. There is absolutely no way Devon Travis is behind Jon Schoop. Travis' career MLB line is .301/.342/.454 and is playing at a 162 game average of 4.8fWAR. He's one of baseball's truly underrated players. For me Travis is closer to being #1 than he is to being #3 let alone #4. SS Bogaerts massively outperformed the rest of them and is runaway #1, Tulo takes #2 and Didi takes #3 as he's outperformed Hardy two years in a row now. No issues with 3B. So it's just really Travis and Bogearts that I think you're underrating big time and and maybe Didi as he's been surprisingly good the last two seasons.

[PaulFolk]

9 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

No issues with C, though if Ramos was healthy they'd easily be #2. No real issues with 1B though if you had used Hanley instead it would have changed things. 2B is way way off. There is absolutely no way Devon Travis is behind Jon Schoop. Travis' career MLB line is .301/.342/.454 and is playing at a 162 game average of 4.8fWAR. He's one of baseball's truly underrated players. For me Travis is closer to being #1 than he is to being #3 let alone #4. SS Bogaerts massively outperformed the rest of them and is runaway #1, Tulo takes #2 and Didi takes #3 as he's outperformed Hardy two years in a row now. No issues with 3B. So it's just really Travis and Bogearts that I think you're underrating big time and and maybe Didi as he's been surprisingly good the last two seasons.

Thanks for the response. I think the key difference in our viewpoints is how much we're taking injuries into account. I'm weighing them pretty heavily.

As I mentioned with Travis, he's a good player if healthy. But he's missed 161 games in the last two years with injuries, and early this spring the Blue Jays didn't think he was making quick enough progress in his recovery. It sounds now like he could be ready for Opening Day after all, but his knee injury seems to be an ongoing problem. I need to see him have a full, healthy season (or at least most of one) before I move him up in the rankings.

I could go either way on SS between Bogaerts and Tulo. I gave Tulo the edge because of his defense. And yes, Didi would certainly rank ahead of Hardy if he were healthy. But he'll be out of commission for at least a month, so that pushes him down the rankings.

[Tryptamine]

Remember though, that even though Travis was hurt and missed a lot of time last year, he was still more valuable (2.5fWAR in 432PA) than Schoop was over the entire season (2.0fWAR in 647PA). Same thing in 2015 where in no where near as many PAs Travis put up more value in a partial season than Schoop put up in a full one .8fWAR. A healthy Travis isn't even in the same league.

[Enjoy Terror]

The only one that I lingered on was Chris Davis vs Greg Bird. It was more an indictment of Davis moreso than Bird, but Bird has looked pretty incredible during ST, and was pretty good during 2015.

[weams]

19 minutes ago, PaulFolk said:

Thanks for the response. I think the key difference in our viewpoints is how much we're taking injuries into account. I'm weighing them pretty heavily.

As I mentioned with Travis, he's a good player if healthy. But he's missed 161 games in the last two years with injuries, and early this spring the Blue Jays didn't think he was making quick enough progress in his recovery. It sounds now like he could be ready for Opening Day after all, but his knee injury seems to be an ongoing problem. I need to see him have a full, healthy season (or at least most of one) before I move him up in the rankings.

I could go either way on SS between Bogaerts and Tulo. I gave Tulo the edge because of his defense. And yes, Didi would certainly rank ahead of Hardy if he were healthy. But he'll be out of commission for at least a month, so that pushes him down the rankings.

I think you have to weigh injuries that heavily. I think Manny will put up a monster year and surprise Donaldson as well. 

[Babypowder]

1 hour ago, PaulFolk said:

Thanks for the response. I think the key difference in our viewpoints is how much we're taking injuries into account. I'm weighing them pretty heavily.

As I mentioned with Travis, he's a good player if healthy. But he's missed 161 games in the last two years with injuries, and early this spring the Blue Jays didn't think he was making quick enough progress in his recovery. It sounds now like he could be ready for Opening Day after all, but his knee injury seems to be an ongoing problem. I need to see him have a full, healthy season (or at least most of one) before I move him up in the rankings.

I could go either way on SS between Bogaerts and Tulo. I gave Tulo the edge because of his defense. And yes, Didi would certainly rank ahead of Hardy if he were healthy. But he'll be out of commission for at least a month, so that pushes him down the rankings.

Xander has been worth 9 wins over the last two seasons compared to Tulo's 5. They aren't that close. Also, you mentioned weighing injuries heavily.... Xander stays much healthier.

[Spy Fox]

I agree with you on most things.

Donaldson deserves to be slightly ahead of Machado based on their results the past few years. But I won't be surprised if this is the year Manny passes him. 

I'd rank Sanchez ahead of Martin for C. Martin's pretty good, but Sanchez could be a good bit worse per-AB than last year and still wind up with better numbers than Martin over a full season.

I wonder how much longer Pedroia will be this good.

[PaulFolk]

3 hours ago, Babypowder said:

Xander has been worth 9 wins over the last two seasons compared to Tulo's 5. They aren't that close. Also, you mentioned weighing injuries heavily.... Xander stays much healthier.

I think Tulowitzki, when healthy, still has the edge as an all-around player. Bogaerts needs to improve his defense. But it's fair to bring up Tulo's injury history (and perhaps his age) as a tiebreaker.

[PaulFolk]

Here's part two of the series: outfields, DHs, and benches.

http://www.baltimorebaseball.com/2017/04/01/2017-al-east-positional-rankings-outfielders-designated-hitters-benches/

[El Gordo]

I disagree about the bench. With the addition of Smith Gentry and Mancini, it's a lot better than it was.

[PaulFolk]

21 hours ago, El Gordo said:

I disagree about the bench. With the addition of Smith Gentry and Mancini, it's a lot better than it was.

I hope you're right. Mancini hadn't been announced as part of the roster when I wrote that, so he does add a good pinch-hitter, although I'm not sure he'll be around past April 15.

[PaulFolk]

And here's the final part: rotations, bullpens, and manager. Guess which one the Orioles are last place in?

http://www.baltimorebaseball.com/2017/04/02/2017-al-east-positional-rankings-rotations-bullpens-managers/

[El Gordo]

3 minutes ago, PaulFolk said:

I hope you're right. Mancini hadn't been announced as part of the roster when I wrote that, so he does add a good pinch-hitter, although I'm not sure he'll be around past April 15.

Even eXcluding Mancini, Kim and Smith on the bench or Gentry and Rickard, are better,tha last seaon. All should give you 350 + OBP, and Joseph looks to be better from his ST .                                                             +

[PaulFolk]

Bump! Now it's time for the chickens to come home to roost. How did my preseason position rankings compare to how 2017 actually turned out?

Here's Part 1: the infield.