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Fangraphs and 538 both have our playoff odds at around 20%

Spy Fox

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Fangraphs has us at 18.6% and FiveThirtyEight has us at 22% for making the playoffs. 6% and 11% respectively for winning the division. They're the two most prominent playoff odds simulators that I know of.

Fangraphs actually predicts us for a better record than FiveThirtyEight does (80 wins vs 78) despite giving us a lower playoff probability. That's because Fangraphs predicts Boston as a more dominant favorite (80% playoff chance, 58% division champ chance) while FiveThirtyEight sees the division as more wide open (they only give the Sox a 54% playoff chance and 35% division champ chance). 

Obviously it's all just numbers and the season hasn't started yet, so make of it what you will. Do you think these numbers are high, low, or about right?

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My extremely scientific methodology, taking into account all factors, gives the Orioles about a 48% chance of making the playoffs. In 2017.

Now, statistically all teams have about a 27% intrinsic probability of making the playoffs. Before the first game is played. 

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  • 1 month later...

I like looking at those systems in August and September, when they have more data from the current year to base it on.    This time of year, they're basically just taking their preseason projections and adjusting for any extra wins the teams have accumulated to date.   Obviously the O's aren't a 110-win team, but their odds of winning 90+ look really good.

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