The window is a myth

[Frobby]

12 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Sure.  But I have not seen a scenario like this posted.  Thought is was worthy of discusion

Just to be clear: I have no problem with your having posted it, and I suspect there will be other posters who will want to debate it in detail.    I'm just ready to do it, personally.     

[wildcard]

3 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Just to be clear: I have no problem with your having posted it, and I suspect there will be other posters who will want to debate it in detail.    I'm just ready to do it, personally.     

OK

[wildcard]

I added .5m for Miley's buyout.

[Ruzious]

If Manny and Britton go via free agency, I think the window shuts - just like that.  Those blotches you could hide with smoke and mirrors will be exposed - like a case of bad acne.  

[Ruzious]

1 hour ago, 24fps said:

For unbelievers windows can be myths or unfortunate facts of life.  For believers in windows, they're self-fulfilling prophecies.

Does your car get wet on the inside when it rains?  

[Babypowder]

If everything breaks perfectly, yes the windows doesn't shut. But, I'd say there are many more plausible situations where it does close.

[sportsfan8703]

12 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Another nitpick.   You have the Orioles letting Hardy go and resigning him at 1/7.   First of all, IF he stays healthy this year, he's a cinch for 150+ games and his 600 plate appearances likely kick in (even with him batting 9th all year) and his option automatically kick in.   Likely?   No.   Quite possible though.

Good point.  Our record with him in the lineup vs. him not in the lineup means we can't really play the "rest" game.  It probably also means he will be hesitant on going on the DL for anything and try and play through everything.  

We could see how the season goes and negotiate a deal for 18' at the ASB so things don't get awkward and affect the clubhouse.  He did sign a deal once with us during the playoffs in 2014.   

[wildcard]

19 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Another nitpick.   You have the Orioles letting Hardy go and resigning him at 1/7.   First of all, IF he stays healthy this year, he's a cinch for 150+ games and his 600 plate appearances likely kick in (even with him batting 9th all year) and his option automatically kick in.   Likely?   No.   Quite possible though.

I think you characterized in right.  Its unlikely.   He hasn't  had 600 PAs since 2013.  And now he is 34.  The back is cranky at times.  

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, RZNJ said:

Right.  But if he's healthy, he's playing.   Buck will not rest a healthy Hardy more than 5 times this year.   

He also isn't hitting second anymore.  His place at the bottom of the lineup will help keep the at plate appearances down.

[Can_of_corn]

5 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Absolutely.   I checked.  Back in 2014 he played in 141 games and got to the plate over 560 times.   He batted 6th most of the year.    150 games batting 9th would be pretty darn close.    Again, I know it's a big IF, but how many games does a healthy Hardy play for Buck this year?

I would hope that Buck would be a big picture guy and make sure the option doesn't vest.

It's the smart thing for the franchise.

[Can_of_corn]

6 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Gun to your head.   How man games does a healthy J.J. Hardy play this year?

154

 

[FanSince88]

We're not re-signing Manny.  It's not going to happen.  Ok, maybe there's a 2% chance of us re-signing him.  He's going to make stupid money, barring injury.  He will not get $300 million.  Probably at least $350.  I wouldn't want him anyway for that kind of insane dollar amount.  

[Frobby]

15 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Absolutely.   I checked.  Back in 2014 he played in 141 games and got to the plate over 560 times.   He batted 6th most of the year.    150 games batting 9th would be pretty darn close.    Again, I know it's a big IF, but how many games does a healthy Hardy play for Buck this year?

Hardy averaged 3.81 PA per game played last year.   At that rate, he'd have to play 158 games this year to reach 600 PA.    I seriously doubt that happens.    If it does happen, it probably means Hardy had an outstanding, fully healthy season.   

[Moondoggie]

2 hours ago, wildcard said:

If the O's can maintain a 160m payroll, (and it appears they can) then they can keep enough core players to continue their 5 years of success in the AL East into the future.  There are three essential contracts that need to happen make the window go away.  1) extend Buck, 2) extend Dan, and  sign Manny.   All need to happen his coming off season.  All three look doable.

 

 

I hope the Orioles can extend Manny, but I'm not banking on it at this point. They may have left it too late. It's something that should have been their No. 1 priority the past two off seasons. I still think they should have offered him the contract they gave Davis, buying out three arbitration years, extending him four more and still giving him an opportunity to go out on the market for a huge deal at age 30. But they didn't.

But even assuming they do find a way to keep him, it's going to be very difficult to remain competitive with the farm system the Orioles have. The only top 100 guy they have at the moment is Sisco (the Yankees have six ranked ahead of him, including the next Correa/Lindor/Jeter). There may be a few more there who will turn out to be productive major league players, but you can't really count on it. Even the guys in the top 100 aren't a sure thing. The Red Sox (even after dealing away some big prospects) and Yankees are overflowing with young talent that the Orioles just don't have. 

I'm sorry, but Joey Rickard and Trey Mancini don't exactly inspire me as bookends to an aging Adam Jones in the corner outfield spots. The Red Sox have Betts, Benintendi and Bradley already in the majors and still a bunch of talent on the farm. Rickard is a 4th outfielder and Mancini shouldn't be anywhere near the outfield at all, even if he can prove to be able to catch a fly ball. He's just too slow and unathletic.

I agree this will be the offseason to deal Britton. I'd rather see some pitching and outfield prospects come back than a 3B. I'm not actually convinced that moving Manny to SS would be beneficial. When you have Brooks Robinson at third, leave him there. Find a shortstop that can give you superior defense, even if he doesn't have a plus bat. Personally, I would not re-sign Hardy. He'll be 35 years old when the season ends, he's been increasingly injury prone, he's slowed down and his bat isn't anything like it was a few years ago. The Orioles won't say it, but I don't think the contract he's on now has been worth it. 

If Gausman and Bundy stay healthy and continue to develop, they'll give the Orioles their best 1-2 punch at the top of the rotation in about 20 years. But they need somebody behind them. Hopefully Harvey or Sedlock or Lee will work out, but that remains to be seen. And since it's unlikely all those guys pan out, they'll still need some reinforcement.

I would be very hesitant about extending Tillman. He's been having too many arm problems and hasn't pitched more than 173 innings since 2014. He's always managed to out pitch his peripherals, but someday that's going to catch up with him. He just doesn't strike me as a guy who will retain his effectiveness in his 30s. We'll see.

I'd like to see Buck stay, but I'm not sure he will, especially if faced with rebuilding. I would prefer that they let Dan go. Filling in with enough bargain basement projects to keep the team competitive while the core is still together just isn't enough. He's let the farm system go to hell and it's going to take some time to build it back up (unless they look to trade Manny and other assets). Honestly, I suspect Dan doesn't plan on sticking around anyway because he hasn't seemed to be too interested in doing much for beyond 2018.

 

 

[allquixotic]

I run Mac OS and iOS as my main operating systems now, so Windows really is a myth.

Look, the Yankees' last few years are proof that even with a virtually unlimited budget (relative to other teams except the Dodgers), you can still have so many things go wrong that you miss the playoffs. You can only buy a small to moderate increase in the chance of going to the playoffs with money; you can't buy a guaranteed ticket to the playoffs with any dollar amount.

If there's a perception that the O's are getting more value out of their young players than they're currently being paid, and are thus punching above their weight class, thus putting them in a "window of opportunity", then the same people who see that window must acknowledge that it could happen again, or get extended indefinitely, by having yet more players come up and do the same thing.

Or it could go the opposite way, and the O's could increase their budget by $50M/year and finish dead last in the East. One guaranteed way of getting to the cellar would be for Tillman, Gausman and Bundy to all undergo Tommy John surgery before September of this year. Or season-ending injury to Davis, Trumbo and Manny. Possibly we would be out of contention if just two of those six players landed on the season-ending DL before the All Star Break.

The window is always there if things go our way, and closes fast if multiple things go wrong, like players not meeting (or coming near) performance expectations, or key players being out for multiple months.

Since it's so unpredictable, it might as well not even exist. So I agree with the OP.