The window is a myth

[Frobby]

4 minutes ago, wildcard said:

I think you will find that having three Top of the Rotation starters that are home developed is pretty rare and puts the O's at or close to the top in all of baseball.  Tillman was not drafted by the O's but he was sure developed by them.

It's very rare.   Most teams only have 1-2 homegrown guys in their rotation.   

[wildcard]

4 minutes ago, Frobby said:

My concern is that many of the guys who are the core of our starting lineup are getting to the age where decline is expected.  We are bringing up young guys for the peripheral spots, but it's been 3 years since we have brought up an impact talent (Schoop).     Maybe Rickard or Mancini will prove to be an impact guy (which I'd define as a player who can produce 2+ WAR per year), but I tend to doubt it.    I'll be happy if they prove me wrong.    

Manny, Schoop, Mancini, Rickard and Sisco would be half the starting lineup that could happen as soon as next opening day. Davis, Jones and Trumbo are 31 which is still in their prime.  Hardy is the only one likely to decline.

If you look at the O's building philosophy it has main been to sign starting pitching in the early rounders of the draft.  If they have pitching the can trade for anything they need because starting pitching is always in demand.

[wildcard]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

It's very rare.   Most teams only have 1-2 homegrown guys in their rotation.   

And their not always top of the rotation the way Gausman, Bundy and Tillman are.

[Frobby]

9 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Manny, Schoop, Mancini, Rickard and Sisco would be half the starting lineup that could happen as soon as next opening day. Davis, Jones and Trumbo are 31 which is still in their prime.  Hardy is the only one likely to decline.

If you look at the O's building philosophy it has main been to sign starting pitching in the early rounders of the draft.  If they have pitching the can trade for anything they need because starting pitching is always in demand.

31 may be considered in their prime, but peak is in the mid-late 20's so they're in the part of their careers where they're likely to do a little worse.    I've made my "fearless prediction" that Jones will have the best year of his career, but I'm going against the odds on that on purely a gut instinct.    That same gut instinct tells me Trumbo won't hit as well in his next 3 years as he did in 2016, and that Davis should improve on 2016 the next couple of years, but probably never reaches his 2015 level again (to say nothing of 2013) and could be in a pretty serious decline starting in 2019 or 2020.   Those are just my gut feelings, not predictions.    

[oriole]

I am surprised at the level of optimism I see on this board on a possible Manny extension. I personally don't believe it's in the cards nor is it the right thing to do.  If Gausman and Bundy turn out to be real solid and maybe one or two of Sisco, Mancini, Sedlock, or whoever turn out to be all star level players...I will say then maybe the window doesn't necessarily close. I am a huge believer that Davis will be absolutely terrible in a couple years and be a real drain on the club for the remainder of his contract. 

 

So in my magic crystal ball I anticipate hopefully 3 average-ish SP, no Manny, Jones, or Britton, a really bad Chris Davis, and maybe a few good players hanging around (Schoop, Givens)...depending on whoever takes a step forward and whoever we inevitably get in a Britton trade and whether guys like Mancini and  Rickard end up as anything but AAAA guys and if whatever FA SP decides to be a Gallardo/Jimenez type signing...who knows?! But there will need to be some surprises coming from the farm.

Ill repeat for clarity for the sake of it...Manny is gone when he is a FA.

[TommyPickles]

6 hours ago, Moondoggie said:

I agree this will be the offseason to deal Britton. I'd rather see some pitching and outfield prospects come back than a 3B. I'm not actually convinced that moving Manny to SS would be beneficial. When you have Brooks Robinson at third, leave him there. Find a shortstop that can give you superior defense, even if he doesn't have a plus bat. Personally, I would not re-sign Hardy. He'll be 35 years old when the season ends, he's been increasingly injury prone, he's slowed down and his bat isn't anything like it was a few years ago. The Orioles won't say it, but I don't think the contract he's on now has been worth it. 

If Gausman and Bundy stay healthy and continue to develop, they'll give the Orioles their best 1-2 punch at the top of the rotation in about 20 years. But they need somebody behind them. Hopefully Harvey or Sedlock or Lee will work out, but that remains to be seen. And since it's unlikely all those guys pan out, they'll still need some reinforcement.

I would be very hesitant about extending Tillman. He's been having too many arm problems and hasn't pitched more than 173 innings since 2014. He's always managed to out pitch his peripherals, but someday that's going to catch up with him. He just doesn't strike me as a guy who will retain his effectiveness in his 30s. We'll see.

 

Gotta say, I agree with all of this.

[wildcard]

2 hours ago, oriole said:

I am surprised at the level of optimism I see on this board on a possible Manny extension. I personally don't believe it's in the cards nor is it the right thing to do.  If Gausman and Bundy turn out to be real solid and maybe one or two of Sisco, Mancini, Sedlock, or whoever turn out to be all star level players...I will say then maybe the window doesn't necessarily close. I am a huge believer that Davis will be absolutely terrible in a couple years and be a real drain on the club for the remainder of his contract. 

 

So in my magic crystal ball I anticipate hopefully 3 average-ish SP, no Manny, Jones, or Britton, a really bad Chris Davis, and maybe a few good players hanging around (Schoop, Givens)...depending on whoever takes a step forward and whoever we inevitably get in a Britton trade and whether guys like Mancini and  Rickard end up as anything but AAAA guys and if whatever FA SP decides to be a Gallardo/Jimenez type signing...who knows?! But there will need to be some surprises coming from the farm.

Ill repeat for clarity for the sake of it...Manny is gone when he is a FA.

Better make sure he doesn't become a FA then.

[VeveJones007]

This organization has been full of payroll surprises the last few years. At some point we have to stop being surprised and realize that the O's are a top third payroll team. Teams in that stratosphere can afford a player like Manny if they want to.

[tntoriole]

11 hours ago, Frobby said:

There's a lot of ifs in your scenario, but now that the 2017 season has barely started I'm not in the mood right now to debate every nuance of what might happen next year or the year after.   There will be plenty of time for that.   Much depends on Gausman and Bundy, and their first outings this year certainly were encouraging.    

For now I'll just pick one small nit that jumped out at me -- are you really penciling in Cedric Mullins for 2018?     You're talking about a guy who hasn't played above Delmarva yet.    If he holds his own at Bowie this year, I'll be pleasantly surprised, much less doing enough to warrant a spot on next year's Opening Day roster.    I won't say it's impossible, but it's a stretch to expect that.   

Cedric says hi!  3 for 3 including leadoff HR in 1st game for Bowie...maybe he will be one of those rare improbables that kick the door down.  We can hope anyway.  

[Ruzious]

22 hours ago, RZNJ said:

 

So, if Bundy and Gausman become a formidable 1-2 punch, Ynoa and Lee become #4 type starters, LIranzo, Crichton, Bridwell, Scott, become viable bullpen pieces, and the Orioles piece together an average offense, they can't compete?      I don't buy that.    Obvioiusly, they are impossible to replace individually but it's still a group effort.     Our starting pitching could actually improve over the next 3 years and the bullpen could be pretty close to what it already is.

 

Bridwell's an awfully long name to be a typo.   There's just too many improbable ifs to expect the window to stay open.  Toss a toothpick at that window, and it breaks.  I think those 2 have been so good that they've allowed the team to win with otherwise mediocre talent.  You could get away with things because of their presence.  Without them, there's nothing to hide the weaknesses.        

[wildcard]

On 4/6/2017 at 8:44 AM, Frobby said:

There's a lot of ifs in your scenario, but now that the 2017 season has barely started I'm not in the mood right now to debate every nuance of what might happen next year or the year after.   There will be plenty of time for that.   Much depends on Gausman and Bundy, and their first outings this year certainly were encouraging.    

For now I'll just pick one small nit that jumped out at me -- are you really penciling in Cedric Mullins for 2018?     You're talking about a guy who hasn't played above Delmarva yet.    If he holds his own at Bowie this year, I'll be pleasantly surprised, much less doing enough to warrant a spot on next year's Opening Day roster.    I won't say it's impossible, but it's a stretch to expect that.   

From Roch:

"Mullins led off last night’s game with a home run and had four hits and two RBIs in five at-bats, including a triple. He scored four runs. This kid is legit."

Me: He was a double away for hitting for the cycle.

[Frobby]

3 minutes ago, wildcard said:

From Roch:

"Mullins led off last night’s game with a home run and had four hits and two RBIs in five at-bats, including a triple. He scored four runs. This kid is legit."

Me: He was a double away for hitting for the cycle.

Look, I'm glad he had a great game, and I'd love it if he were ready to contribute to a major league team next year.    But one game doesn't make a season, and jumping from Delmarva to the majors in one season doesn't happen very often.    Nick Markakis did it.    Manny Machado did it (he was promoted from Delmarva to Frederick mid-season, then got promoted 4 months into the following season).    Those are the only two position players I'm aware of in recent memory who made that kind of jump, and we're talking about a no. 7 and no. 3 overall draft pick.    

The one thing Mullins has going for him is he has defensive skills that probably could play in the majors next year.    So if the O's were willing to carry a guy whose bat wasn't really ready, they could do it.

In any event, this conversation will be a lot less speculative by the middle or end of this year.

[Babypowder]

8 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Look, I'm glad he had a great game, and I'd love it if he were ready to contribute to a major league team next year.    But one game doesn't make a season, and jumping from Delmarva to the majors in one season doesn't happen very often.    Nick Markakis did it.    Manny Machado did it (he was promoted from Delmarva to Frederick mid-season, then got promoted 4 months into the following season).    Those are the only two position players I'm aware of in recent memory who made that kind of jump, and we're talking about a no. 7 and no. 3 overall draft pick.    

The one thing Mullins has going for him is he has defensive skills that probably could play in the majors next year.    So if the O's were willing to carry a guy whose bat wasn't really ready, they could do it.

In any event, this conversation will be a lot less speculative by the middle or end of this year.

Tim Tebow homered in his first minor league at bat. He's legit!