who is the "surest thing" in this draft?

[DocJJ]

Major questions on every player:

1. Pedro Alvarez- even after his broken hand healed, he struggled, especially in the CWS. Plus Bor-A$$ is his agent...

2. Gordon Beckham- Long loopy swing may not translate well to MLB. Also defensive limitations at SS.

3. Brian Matusz- funky delivery may make him injury-prone. Didn't play against the highest level of college competition.

4. Tim Beckham- Loaded with tools...but any high schooler is a risk.

5. Eric Hosmer- see Tim Beckham. Plus, again, Bore-A$$

seems like the "safest" pick might just be Smoak...

[Stotle]

Major questions on every player:

1. Pedro Alvarez- even after his broken hand healed, he struggled, especially in the CWS. Plus Bor-A$$ is his agent...

2. Gordon Beckham- Long loopy swing may not translate well to MLB. Also defensive limitations at SS.

3. Brian Matusz- funky delivery may make him injury-prone. Didn't play against the highest level of college competition.

4. Tim Beckham- Loaded with tools...but any high schooler is a risk.

5. Eric Hosmer- see Tim Beckham. Plus, again, Bore-A$$

seems like the "safest" pick might just be Smoak...

It depends on what you mean by "safe". Do you want a "safer" pick with a lower ceiling?

For what it's worth:

1. I don't think Matusz's mechanics are as large an issue as stated above.

2. Alvarez has raked for the past two seasons -- this year he has struggled to find his groove after the hamate injury and still put up more than respectible numbers

3. I'd argue T-Bex's tool set makes him one of the safest bets to eventually be an everyday ML player because he can carve out a place to contribute even if that bat doesn't fully develop.

[Frobby]

I'd say Alvarez is the safest bet.

[wayne25]

It depends on what you mean by "safe". Do you want a "safer" pick with a lower ceiling?

For what it's worth:

1. I don't think Matusz's mechanics are as large an issue as stated above.

2. Alvarez has raked for the past two seasons -- this year he has struggled to find his groove after the hamate injury and still put up more than respectible numbers

3. I'd argue T-Bex's tool set makes him one of the safest bets to eventually be an everyday ML player because he can carve out a place to contribute even if that bat doesn't fully develop.

I'd say that T-Bex is one of the highest risk: high schooler, did not overwhelm this spring with the bat. That being the case, I'd say Smoak is the safest bet, who also has a high cieling. His bat has been good, he has power and plate discipline and very good around the bag. Not much else to worry about. Oh yeah, very good power.

[DennisTheOsFan]

Justin Smoak.

[Stotle]

I'd say that T-Bex is one of the highest risk: high schooler, did not overwhelm this spring with the bat. That being the case, I'd say Smoak is the safest bet, who also has a high cieling. His bat has been good, he has power and plate discipline and very good around the bag. Not much else to worry about. Oh yeah, very good power.

While what you write about T-Bex may have been accurate at the start of the season, he finished very strongly and reasserted himself as one of the top talents in the draft class. His skill set should make him a valuable defensive player if nothing else, and with a little bit of development he should be able to be a ML hitter. He may not be a safe bet to be an all-star, but it would be a huge upset if someone with this much talent in so many different areas of the game just flames out.

Smoak is pretty "safe", I guess. Sort of depends on if you think his hitting is streaky, and whether or not there is reason to pay particular attention to his stint with Team USA last summer. For what it's worth, I think he'll be a fine player.

[Sports Guy]

Smoak or Alvarez

[blamo0]

IMO Alvarez. I do think Hosmer has the highest ceiling of all the hitters in the draft.

[Tony-OH]

I hear that Posey has the intangible factor. The Orioles are big on character guys so Posey just might fit if he's available...

[Hutman]

I hear that Posey has the intangible factor. The Orioles are big on character guys so Posey just might fit if he's available...

Tony, if they were to grab Posey, do you think we'd move him or do you think we'd consider moving Weiters to 1b?

[bird watcher]

I hear that Posey has the intangible factor. The Orioles are big on character guys so Posey just might fit if he's available...

Do you think the O's would draft another catcher at #1? If he is the BPA then I think they should but will they? Although I suppose if you are looking to the draft to fill a position of need then Hosmer and T-Beckham are out also because of there age.

[IamtheSkip]

It's gotta be Alvarez. He was so highly touted prior to this season for a reason.

Once he find himself again he'll be a masher.

[JayGibbons31]

I hear that Posey has the intangible factor. The Orioles are big on character guys so Posey just might fit if he's available...

I think Posey is the safest pick at the top of the first round.

[Pruke]

Major questions on every player:

1. Pedro Alvarez- even after his broken hand healed, he struggled, especially in the CWS. Plus Bor-A$$ is his agent...

2. Gordon Beckham- Long loopy swing may not translate well to MLB. Also defensive limitations at SS.

3. Brian Matusz- funky delivery may make him injury-prone. Didn't play against the highest level of college competition.

4. Tim Beckham- Loaded with tools...but any high schooler is a risk.

5. Eric Hosmer- see Tim Beckham. Plus, again, Bore-A$$

seems like the "safest" pick might just be Smoak...

What a great question. I'll go with 1) Alvarez, 2) Smoak, 3) Matusz.

Hosmer is tough because of his age, and TBeckham (who I'd love to get for the record) is probably there as well.

Should be a fun time on Thursday!

[Pruke]

I hear that Posey has the intangible factor. The Orioles are big on character guys so Posey just might fit if he's available...

Perhaps he's our 'mystery' candidate. I don't think people would project him to us given his C background, but they drafted a great pitcher in the past and stuck him in the OF.... (Markakis)...and another great hitter and put him on the mound...(Loewen)...so why not take a catcher and put him in the IF