While I definitely understand the sentiment towards investing long-term in Gunnar, I think this is underselling Soto.....by a lot.
He's not just talented....he is extremely talented. He just turned 26 and he has been raking ever since he got into the league as a 19 year old. The guy carried the Nats to the World Series 5 years ago and it sure wasn't his fault that the Yankees didn't win it all this year. He was on base 30 times this postseason and his career postseason numbers are extremely good. The guy is an intimidating force at the plate and he has a confidence and presence that frankly none of our guys have. He definitely has defensive shortcomings, but this guy is a generational talent and one of the most complete and big-time hitters we have seen. I would feel much better having him in our October lineup than anyone else, but I agree with others here that we aren't getting him.
I actually just saw Sacramento got him through waivers out righted to Las Vegas, and I did wonder if Elias was asleep at the wheel.
Harrison Bader has a similar forecast by one guesser to Randal Grichuk at around 1/6 if a more defense oriented contributor is considered for the role.
It would make the Orioles more extremely left-handed, but I wouldn't be completely surprised if alternatives like Conforto or Kepler get weighed against the righty bats. Elias can sell a plum offense spot for pillows to those guys if he wants to make big talents cook some more in Norfolk.
Almost any of them would be near repeating the Adam Frazier-Jordan Westburg kind of situation, or a little more ominously a clue SIGBOT thinks Kjerstad might be shaky.
I just looked up the FG numbers through Age 25 starting in 1897 (for you, Honus Wagner), and Soto's 280 Offense number is 8th all-time.
He lags both Trout and Pujols among modern guys - Cobb, Mantle, Foxx and Ott also up above 300.
Ted Williams has him by a mere 5 runs for 7th place, though Teddy did it in about 2/3rds of the plate appearances, and all by his Age 23 season as military service covered his Age 24-26 seasons.
Win a bar bet by knowing FG gives Andruw Jones a defense powered overall edge on Soto through Age 25.
https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&ind=0&startdate=&enddate=&season1=1897&season=2024&age=15&age=25&sortcol=19&sortdir=default&pagenum=1
Here's my take. He's young - he's talented (but not defensively) - and he's not worth the money he will get. I hope the Mets or someone drives it up for the Yankees. I'd much rather invest in Gunnar everyday and Sunday. Better head, better future, better all around. IF the O's now have that kind of money - GET GUNNAR!!!!!!!!
ESPN David Schoenfield guesses us as the Tanner Scott best fit. Another generalist, Matthew Pouliot of Rotoworld, guessed over 100 contracts including a Seranthony Dominguez guess of only $6M forecasting that the $8M option is too pricey. Pouliot has a lot of interesting names at $6M-$8M on 1-year deals -- Sewald, Yimi G., Leclerc, Kittredge, Maton, these are Elias' comparison shops figuring out whether to lock in Seranthony and decide about G. Soto at the later tender deadline.
Best fit: Baltimore Orioles
There are a lot of best fits for the best reliever available (Phillies closer Carlos Estevez is probably second on that list). Scott has a 2.04 ERA over the past two seasons with 188 strikeouts in 150 innings. The Orioles do have Felix Bautista coming off Tommy John surgery, but they'll want more certainty after the Craig Kimbrel signing didn't work out and their bullpen finished 23rd in the majors with a 4.23 ERA. Signing Scott -- and bringing him back to his original organization -- won't cost as much as a premium starting pitcher and could give the Orioles just as much value, especially in the postseason, where we've seen the necessity of deep, dominant bullpens.
Two other top options: Boston Red Sox, Toronto Blue Jays
We could also throw in the Yankees (Clay Holmes is a free agent), Mets (need depth behind Edwin Diaz) and Astros (but they already have Josh Hader on a $95 million contract) -- but let's add two more AL East teams. Only the White Sox had more blown saves than Boston's 31, and the Red Sox finished 25th in bullpen ERA. The Blue Jays' pen might have been even worse as it fell apart when closer Jordan Romano went down early in the season and the team finished 29th in the majors in ERA.
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