Buster Olney: 'No Chance' Orioles Re-Sign Manny Machado

[webbrick2010]

So how many of these guys have brought home a championship? How many playoff appearances

Have they been worth... most of the time I think not, jury still out... Lester helped the Cubs win a WS

[Nevermore]

What about Max Scherzer?

[webbrick2010]

3 minutes ago, Nevermore said:

What about Max Scherzer?

30 million a year thru 2021, been great, Nationals still looking for a championship

Been a good signing so far... .but like most the back end is likely to be dreadful

I just noticed that Prince Feilder is still getting 24 M for the next 3 years.... nice retirement package... too funny... unless/until it happens to your team... Guess it already has for the O's with Chris Davis

[Frobby]

 

27 minutes ago, webbrick2010 said:

30 million a year thru 2021, been great, Nationals still looking for a championship

Been a good signing so far... .but like most the back end is likely to be dreadful

I just noticed that Prince Feilder is still getting 24 M for the next 3 years.... nice retirement package... too funny... unless/until it happens to your team... Guess it already has for the O's with Chris Davis

I think age is a hugely important factor when you look at these deals.   The reason Manny's contract will be very large is that he'll only be 26 when he signs it.   That's a far less risky scenario than signing a guy to a ten year deal when he's 30 or so.    

[webbrick2010]

2 minutes ago, Frobby said:

There haven't been many contracts that exceed $200 mm -- only 8, and 3 of those were less than 10 years.

I think age is a hugely important factor when you look at these deals.   The reason Manny's contract will be very large is that he'll only be 26 when he signs it.   That's a far less risky scenario than signing a guy to a ten year deal when he's 30 or so.    

Agreed, I would have been happy if they gave him a 10 year deal 2 to 3 seasons ago, but now 10 years gets him to 36.

Manny is in the midst of a 120 game "slump" where he is hitting .248... I'm not too comfortable predicting what a 30+ Manny will look like

[waroriole]

On 5/24/2017 at 6:54 PM, Cumberbundy said:

Then again, he is batting a clutch .143 when we are behind. 

A 4.7% LD rate in May is almost impossible if you're trying to square the ball up. 

Do we really need to have a sample size and clutch discussion?

[TouchemAll]

I gotta really believe that if the O's thought they could sign him this would already be done.

Say hello to the newest Yankee at some point.

[Sessh]

3 hours ago, webbrick2010 said:

Agreed, I would have been happy if they gave him a 10 year deal 2 to 3 seasons ago, but now 10 years gets him to 36.

I'm not even happy with that. To expect a player to maintain his level of performance and avoid serious injury for any 10 year stretch is not reasonable to me in a sport where injuries are exceedingly common and where the wrong kind of injury can ruin a player of any age for the rest of his career. Those are pretty high stakes especially for what it would cost to sign him. Hell, even five years is a gamble, but I wouldn't go any higher than five guaranteed years for anyone and certainly wouldn't sink $30M into one guy because it hurts the team in other areas. Signing Machado long term does not make the Orioles better and they need to get a LOT better if they want to win a championship. Signing Manny not only doesn't do that, but makes it harder for the team to get better since we're not all that interested in building from the ground up in any way.

[FlipTheBird]

3 hours ago, TouchemAll said:

I gotta really believe that if the O's thought they could sign him this would already be done.

Say hello to the newest Yankee at some point.

I still don't see him as a Yankee, simply because I don't think even the Yanks could afford him AND Harper, and Harper's been rumored to be a Yankee guy basically since he was drafted.

[TouchemAll]

58 minutes ago, FlipTheBird said:

I still don't see him as a Yankee, simply because I don't think even the Yanks could afford him AND Harper, and Harper's been rumored to be a Yankee guy basically since he was drafted.

You may be right, but I would NEVER under estimate what the Yankee's can afford.

[Frobby]

2 hours ago, Sessh said:

I'm not even happy with that. To expect a player to maintain his level of performance and avoid serious injury for any 10 year stretch is not reasonable to me in a sport where injuries are exceedingly common and where the wrong kind of injury can ruin a player of any age for the rest of his career. Those are pretty high stakes especially for what it would cost to sign him. Hell, even five years is a gamble, but I wouldn't go any higher than five guaranteed years for anyone and certainly wouldn't sink $30M into one guy because it hurts the team in other areas. Signing Machado long term does not make the Orioles better and they need to get a LOT better if they want to win a championship. Signing Manny not only doesn't do that, but makes it harder for the team to get better since we're not all that interested in building from the ground up in any way.

I disagree with just about everything in here.   Manny will still provide a lot of surplus value at $30 mm, and I'm not the slightest bit confident that the Orioles will take that money and find a more efficient way to spend it.    They'll probably spend it extending Adam Jones and signing some Ubaldo/Gallardo type pitcher.    

[Can_of_corn]

48 minutes ago, TouchemAll said:

You may be right, but I would NEVER under estimate what the Yankee's can afford.

Or the Red Sox, or the Dodgers...

It has been since the FA class of Sabathia and Tex that the Yanks have dominated the offseason.