The Official JJ Hardy PA update thread

[Frobby]

39 minutes ago, maybenxtyr said:

Exactly. There isn't any circumstance where I would want JJ at SS next season. I've enjoyed most of his time here but he appears to be done as a ML caliber starter.

I can imagine circumstances where I'd want JJ back on a cheaper deal next year, but those circumstances aren't very likely to occur.     

Last year, Hardy had a .613 OPS in his first 36 games, then a .766 OPS thereafter.     If Hardy was able to engineer a similar turnaround this year, while playing the kind of defense he's been playing for the last 4-5 weeks, he might be worth bringing back for $5-6 mm.

The problem is, much as I'm rooting for him, I don't think that kind of turnaround is in the cards. Hardy just doesn't look the same this year.     Last year you could attribute his slow start to being rusty after coming off his broken foot.    This year, he just looks like he's lost some of his foot speed and bat speed.    He might pick it up a little, but I'm just not expecting a major turnaround.    And in that case, he wouldn't be worth having next year at any price.    Which is sad, because he's been a major contributor to the team's success.    

[SteveA]

1 hour ago, Aristotelian said:

If we don't bring back JJ, the question is how do we replace him. From what I have seen, Manny is a much better 3B than SS. Even if Manny slides over, we have nobody to play 3B. I kind of like the idea to keep him to 598 ABs this year, pay the $2M, then bring him back on a cheap 1 year deal. But it is quite possible that Buck will do JJ a solid and make sure the option vests.

If he ends the year with stats similar to what he has now, it's easy to replace him.   We have Ruben Tejada, who I would expect to be better than that.   There will be infield free agents that can give us more than what he is giving us right now.   There will probably be minor league free agents that can give us what he is giving us right now, and will make the major league minimum.

[Frobby]

9 minutes ago, SteveA said:

If he ends the year with stats similar to what he has now, it's easy to replace him.   We have Ruben Tejada, who I would expect to be better than that.   

If Tejada accrues more than 82 days of service time this year, he'll be a free agent this offseason.    

[Aristotelian]

14 minutes ago, SteveA said:

If he ends the year with stats similar to what he has now, it's easy to replace him.   We have Ruben Tejada, who I would expect to be better than that.   There will be infield free agents that can give us more than what he is giving us right now.   There will probably be minor league free agents that can give us what he is giving us right now, and will make the major league minimum.

Have you watched Tejada play? .320 career SLG. I would rather just keep JJ (albeit for a lot less than $14M). I fail to see how Tejada would be an upgrade.

I guess I could see DD going for Frazier coming off a bad year but not sure that is a good idea. 

[weams]

2 hours ago, SteveA said:

We're slightly more than 1/3 of the way through, so he's actually on a pace for 578 PAs.

He tends to get injured fairly frequently.

He bats very low in the order.  

We are among the major league leaders in # of extra innings played, that will also probably regress to the mean a bit, creating fewer opportunities.

We just improved ourselves significantly at the backup infield position; for the first time in many years we have a semi-legitimate major league hitter there and I expect (hope?) he will get some starts at short.

I think it is really unlikely that he could get to 600.   If he did it would be very, very late.   Probably the last day of the season.   It's likely we would either have clinched a playoff position or been eliminated by the last day of the season so there would be no baseball need to start "your best player" at SS, if he is even that by the end of the year.

Put that all together and I think it's incredibly unlikely he will get to 600.   If he does, it would probably mean he has magically returned to hitting like he did in the early part of his career.  It's hard to imagine that happening, but baseball is always full of surprises.

 

 

I think that is why we got Tejada. 

[weams]

9 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

Have you watched Tejada play? .320 career SLG. I would rather just keep JJ (albeit for a lot less than $14M). I fail to see how Tejada would be an upgrade.

I guess I could see DD going for Frazier coming off a bad year but not sure that is a good idea. 

I think that Tejada is for this year. To spell Hardy some. I have no idea what they might do next season.

[esmd]

1 hour ago, Aristotelian said:

If we don't bring back JJ, the question is how do we replace him. From what I have seen, Manny is a much better 3B than SS. Even if Manny slides over, we have nobody to play 3B. I kind of like the idea to keep him to 598 ABs this year, pay the $2M, then bring him back on a cheap 1 year deal. But it is quite possible that Buck will do JJ a solid and make sure the option vests.

There's also the possibility than Manny isn't here next year.  Really, that's the only way I'd probably bring Hardy back, to keep the infield from having too much turnover at one.  In that scenario, you've got a new 3rd baseman, and possible a new 2nd baseman as well is Schoop is moved over the 3rd.  Lot of upheaval, and I think JJ would be a steadying influence.  But if Machado and Schoop are both at the same spots next year, then I think they probably need to try and upgrade, with bringing him back on a 1yr deal as a fallback in case they whiff on finding someone better.

[SteveA]

7 minutes ago, esmd said:

There's also the possibility than Manny isn't here next year.  Really, that's the only way I'd probably bring Hardy back, to keep the infield from having too much turnover at one.  In that scenario, you've got a new 3rd baseman, and possible a new 2nd baseman as well is Schoop is moved over the 3rd.  Lot of upheaval, and I think JJ would be a steadying influence.  But if Machado and Schoop are both at the same spots next year, then I think they probably need to try and upgrade, with bringing him back on a 1yr deal as a fallback in case they whiff on finding someone better.

If Manny isn't here next year we are in full rebuild mode.   It probably doesn't matter who plays SS.   I guess you decide whether it's worth it to keep JJ as a "steadying influence" so as not to rush someone in the minors.   Or maybe you get a young infielder or two in the hypothetical Manny deal.

[maybenxtyr]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

I can imagine circumstances where I'd want JJ back on a cheaper deal next year, but those circumstances aren't very likely to occur.     

Last year, Hardy had a .613 OPS in his first 36 games, then a .766 OPS thereafter.     If Hardy was able to engineer a similar turnaround this year, while playing the kind of defense he's been playing for the last 4-5 weeks, he might be worth bringing back for $5-6 mm.

The problem is, much as I'm rooting for him, I don't think that kind of turnaround is in the cards. Hardy just doesn't look the same this year.     Last year you could attribute his slow start to being rusty after coming off his broken foot.    This year, he just looks like he's lost some of his foot speed and bat speed.    He might pick it up a little, but I'm just not expecting a major turnaround.    And in that case, he wouldn't be worth having next year at any price.    Which is sad, because he's been a major contributor to the team's success.    

I love what he brought to the team...I just think he may be done as a everyday player. That being said, he probably has little to no value as an occasional player.

[webbrick2010]

21 minutes ago, esmd said:

There's also the possibility than Manny isn't here next year.  Really, that's the only way I'd probably bring Hardy back, to keep the infield from having too much turnover at one.  In that scenario, you've got a new 3rd baseman, and possible a new 2nd baseman as well is Schoop is moved over the 3rd.  Lot of upheaval, and I think JJ would be a steadying influence.  But if Machado and Schoop are both at the same spots next year, then I think they probably need to try and upgrade, with bringing him back on a 1yr deal as a fallback in case they whiff on finding someone better.

Yes he is a "steadying influence". He hardly ever gets on base so he doesn't force baserunners to advance, and he shortens games by consistently not reaching base... and in the field his range is so limited the adjacent players never have to worry about a collision. Yes a very "steadying influence"... might just put a potted plant at SS... just a thought

[Pheasants]

30 minutes ago, weams said:

I think that Tejada is for this year. To spell Hardy some. I have no idea what they might do next season.

Is Giavotella (I know that is spelled wrong) from Norfolk a good option?

[Tx Oriole]

16 minutes ago, webbrick2010 said:

Yes he is a "steadying influence". He hardly ever gets on base so he doesn't force baserunners to advance, and he shortens games by consistently not reaching base... and in the field his range is so limited the adjacent players never have to worry about a collision. Yes a very "steadying influence"... might just put a potted plant at SS... just a thought

You are being silly. But then that's your MO. The man still got game. IMO. 

[weams]

19 minutes ago, Pheasants said:

Is Giavotella (I know that is spelled wrong) from Norfolk a good option?

I do not think he can play shortstop. 

[Tony-OH]

3 hours ago, esmd said:

See, this is where I think stats like WAR are flawed.  Hardy's offense is bad, obviously (although IMO, he still is a pretty decent "clutch" hitter), but his defense makes up for it.  I realize WAR is designed to take defense into account, but we've seen how much the play of our infield defense falls off when Hardy is not out there.  He just seems to stabilize the entire infield defense.  To say he's worse than replacement level isn't something that I'd agree with.

Well, I'm not sure how you came to that conclusion, but here are his "clutch" numbers this year.

RISP - .239/.300/.304/.604
Men on base - .188./233/.235/.469
2 out RISP - 192./222./192/.415
Close and late  - .194/.219/.226/.445

 

[Tony-OH]

27 minutes ago, webbrick2010 said:

Yes he is a "steadying influence". He hardly ever gets on base so he doesn't force baserunners to advance, and he shortens games by consistently not reaching base... and in the field his range is so limited the adjacent players never have to worry about a collision. Yes a very "steadying influence"... might just put a potted plant at SS... just a thought

Ok, you may be taking too much satisfaction out of your dislike for Hardy and his contract, but this is funny.