Ademar Rifaela?

[Cumberbundy]

3 hours ago, sportsfan8703 said:

“He’s just 22 and has a beautiful swing and the ball jumps off his bat,” Orioles director of player development Brian Graham said. “He’s having a really good year. He’s shown good bat speed and understands the strike zone. He’s shown much better patience this year. He’s a left-handed hitter that has always had a pure swing. His pitch recognition has gotten better.

“Plus he’s maturing as a person and as a player, and if you had to point to one thing, that maturity has really helped him perform so well this year. Young players develop at different times. (Outfielder Randolph) Gassaway and Rifaela are similar. It has taken some time and it’s part of the process. Development takes time and a lot of effort and you never know when players will show up. You just keep working and good players will show up.”  

From http://www.masnsports.com/steve-melewski/2017/07/flying-under-the-radar-on-the-farm-plus-other-notes.html

 

This minor league system and these updates are making the summer much more enjoyable than I'd have anticipated it being with the big club struggling as they are. Another guy to look forward to checking in on each day. 

[Frobby]

9 hours ago, Cumberbundy said:

This minor league system and these updates are making the summer much more enjoyable than I'd have anticipated it being with the big club struggling as they are. Another guy to look forward to checking in on each day. 

I wish I could say I'm as optimistic about the MiL system as you are.   There have been some positive developments this year, but also some negative ones, particularly on the pitching side.    

[Luke-OH]

12 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I wish I could say I'm as optimistic about the MiL system as you are.   There have been some positive developments this year, but also some negative ones, particularly on the pitching side.    

I think the system is in OK shape, the issue though is if the O's brass sees '18 as their last shot at a competitive window, that's probably a year earlier than when serious help will be ready. That's why I'm of the mindset that the strategy should be sell this year targeting arms that are a year or so away, get guys like Hays, Mullins, Stewart, Sisco, Scott, and Long a half a season or so of major league experience in 2018, and look to be competitive in 2019.  That's obviously a best case scenario, and would require a couple of the aforementioned group of prospects being impactful, which is far from a guarantee. It also involves trading Machado, which I don't know if the brass has the stomach to do. 

[sportsfan8703]

3 hours ago, phillyOs119 said:

I think the system is in OK shape, the issue though is if the O's brass sees '18 as their last shot at a competitive window, that's probably a year earlier than when serious help will be ready. That's why I'm of the mindset that the strategy should be sell this year targeting arms that are a year or so away, get guys like Hays, Mullins, Stewart, Sisco, Scott, and Long a half a season or so of major league experience in 2018, and look to be competitive in 2019.  That's obviously a best case scenario, and would require a couple of the aforementioned group of prospects being impactful, which is far from a guarantee. It also involves trading Machado, which I don't know if the brass has the stomach to do. 

We all are guilty of this way of thinking, but why are we letting the struggles of the MLB rotation effect the opinion of the farm system?

Just because we don't have a SP prospect in AAA that is ready to step into the rotation, let alone 3 of them. How many franchises have that?

People are taking things for granted. We've basically been injury free this year, knock on wood!  We've dealt with Dariel Alvarez needing TJ, Reyes punching a wall and breaking his hand; and Mullins having hamstring issues. That's pretty much it. 

Wah, Sedlock and Peralata have struggled?   What do we have to complain about?

[Luke-OH]

11 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

We all are guilty of this way of thinking, but why are we letting the struggles of the MLB rotation effect the opinion of the farm system?

Just because we don't have a SP prospect in AAA that is ready to step into the rotation, let alone 3 of them. How many franchises have that?

People are taking things for granted. We've basically been injury free this year, knock on wood!  We've dealt with Dariel Alvarez needing TJ, Reyes punching a wall and breaking his hand; and Mullins having hamstring issues. That's pretty much it. 

Wah, Sedlock and Peralata have struggled?   What do we have to complain about?

Was I complaining? I generally think I have an optimistic (but still realistic) view of the system.

[Cumberbundy]

9 hours ago, Frobby said:

I wish I could say I'm as optimistic about the MiL system as you are.   There have been some positive developments this year, but also some negative ones, particularly on the pitching side.    

You likely had a much more sound evaluation of the system entering the season than I. You likely still do. The reason I'm more optimistic is because, entering the year, I didn't think our entire system could get us a good starting pitcher. I'd rather fear Dan messing it up than have nothing to mess up, of course. Mountcastle may set a record for doubles and 15 have cleared the fence. I check out the numbers of guys in the elite class of prospects & don't see why he doesn't belong even with his arm being a knock. 20 year olds who can hit like that aren't seen all that often. Then the emergence of Akin, he was my favorite draft pick, he had a brutal start but the swing and miss stuff is there and he's turned his season around. I have an unhealthy love for Liranzo because I saw him throw once and it moved. Seinfeld humor, I'm old. I was also excited by a youngster taking a 98mph Kimbrel fastball out for a HR to the opposite field -- one AB isn't a sample size but not many have done that in 7 years, Mullins may have something special in him if he can stay healthy. I'm catching up to guys like yourself who knew the system had a few pieces. I'm encouraged by Stewart & I'm paying attention to Rifaela who appears to have something. To have 10+ guys to have a bit of enthusiasm about is excitement I needed. I look forward to Fenter, guys all over the place that have some promise. I also love our draft picks Hall, Hall & Lowth. Akin, Mountcastle, Hays...these guys make me think we have some people here who know how to evaluate talent and that's the best part of it to me, I don't like the moves Dan has made, I'm happy with the way we are drafting (excluding the guys we haven't signed in the top 10) and the way we are developing guys. 

How are Hays & Mountcastle performing compared to Manny & Schoop? I'd love to see a same age/level comparison. 

If they're special players, and Sisco is as good as his most staunch believers think, we also have Mancini...that gives us 6 guys to build around who are 25 and younger. Davis will be here for years as a 7th piece by 2019. Mullins a lead off guy? If he pans out its 8. Plenty of "ifs," but it's exciting to me. 

DJ Stewart burning up the bases with 12 steals, I love that guy. Then again, I was excited about John Stephens. That slow curve was nasty. 

Heck, Santander may be something useful. 

What the heck happened to Reyes? Speaking of big boys I'm intrigued by Curran too. It's not difficult to pique my interest. 

[Can_of_corn]

Reyes broke his hand punching a locker.

[Frobby]

14 hours ago, Cumberbundy said:

You likely had a much more sound evaluation of the system entering the season than I. You likely still do. The reason I'm more optimistic is because, entering the year, I didn't think our entire system could get us a good starting pitcher. I'd rather fear Dan messing it up than have nothing to mess up, of course. Mountcastle may set a record for doubles and 15 have cleared the fence. I check out the numbers of guys in the elite class of prospects & don't see why he doesn't belong even with his arm being a knock. 20 year olds who can hit like that aren't seen all that often. Then the emergence of Akin, he was my favorite draft pick, he had a brutal start but the swing and miss stuff is there and he's turned his season around. I have an unhealthy love for Liranzo because I saw him throw once and it moved. Seinfeld humor, I'm old. I was also excited by a youngster taking a 98mph Kimbrel fastball out for a HR to the opposite field -- one AB isn't a sample size but not many have done that in 7 years, Mullins may have something special in him if he can stay healthy. I'm catching up to guys like yourself who knew the system had a few pieces. I'm encouraged by Stewart & I'm paying attention to Rifaela who appears to have something. To have 10+ guys to have a bit of enthusiasm about is excitement I needed. I look forward to Fenter, guys all over the place that have some promise. I also love our draft picks Hall, Hall & Lowth. Akin, Mountcastle, Hays...these guys make me think we have some people here who know how to evaluate talent and that's the best part of it to me, I don't like the moves Dan has made, I'm happy with the way we are drafting (excluding the guys we haven't signed in the top 10) and the way we are developing guys. 

How are Hays & Mountcastle performing compared to Manny & Schoop? I'd love to see a same age/level comparison. 

If they're special players, and Sisco is as good as his most staunch believers think, we also have Mancini...that gives us 6 guys to build around who are 25 and younger. Davis will be here for years as a 7th piece by 2019. Mullins a lead off guy? If he pans out its 8. Plenty of "ifs," but it's exciting to me. 

DJ Stewart burning up the bases with 12 steals, I love that guy. Then again, I was excited about John Stephens. That slow curve was nasty. 

Heck, Santander may be something useful. 

What the heck happened to Reyes? Speaking of big boys I'm intrigued by Curran too. It's not difficult to pique my interest. 

I love the enthusiasm.    Here are my comments on the players you mentioned:

Mountcastle - Clearly a bat to be excited about.    He's significantly upgraded his status this season with the bat, but we have to cross our fingers that he'll be a passable 2B, because SS is not a realistic option.  

Akin - I like him, and he's coming on strong, but realistically he's a back end starter in 2020.

Liranzo - Saw him in spring training and loved his stuff, but he's taken a HUGE step backwards this year.     

Mullins - I'm intrigued, but not convinced yet.   Could be a great story here, though.

Stewart - Has worked his way out of the doghouse, but looks to me to be a below average starter or bench guy.

Rifaela - I'm intrigued that this guy who has never hit much before suddenly is raking.    Great development for the team, but I want to see him do it for another 2 months before getting too excited.

Fenter - Just a name, for now.    He hasn't done anything other than get paid a lot of money and gotten hurt.    When he's pitching for a full season affiliate, I'll start paying attention    

Hall, Hall & Lowther -- I never get excited about draft picks until they're actually excelling in pro ball.    Until then, they're just names with a certain amount of hype attached, and all 30 teams have them.    Lowther's first few outings have been pretty good, but I don't think we'll know much until next year.

Hays - Huge "stock up" here.    Can play CF or RF well, and is raking.    

Sisco - Has some limitations, but should be a solid contributor.

Santander - who knows?   Keeping him on the major league roster for 90 days next year, after spending most or all of this year on the DL, is going to be very difficult.     

Reyes - it's pretty much a wasted year for him due to his own stupidity.

Curran - too early to tell anything.

Overall, the offensive guys are interesting but the pitching is very thin and years from reaching the majors.      

[Ruzious]

On 7/12/2017 at 9:00 AM, phillyOs119 said:

I think the system is in OK shape, the issue though is if the O's brass sees '18 as their last shot at a competitive window, that's probably a year earlier than when serious help will be ready. That's why I'm of the mindset that the strategy should be sell this year targeting arms that are a year or so away, get guys like Hays, Mullins, Stewart, Sisco, Scott, and Long a half a season or so of major league experience in 2018, and look to be competitive in 2019.  That's obviously a best case scenario, and would require a couple of the aforementioned group of prospects being impactful, which is far from a guarantee. It also involves trading Machado, which I don't know if the brass has the stomach to do. 

I'm thinking that if they can go into 2019 starting enough of the young players - all young OFers, Schoop, Mancini, and Mountcastle in the infield, Sisco at catcher - then they can afford to keep Manny (at SS).  I would still look to trade Britton if they can get 2 real good prospects for him.  The big question will be the starting pitching.  We'll need 3 guys in addition to Gausman and Bundy - get lucky with Harvey and 2 other questionmarks.  Realistically, we'll likely have to buy a solid arm.  If we get lucky with the starting pitching, the future could be very exciting.          

[OFFNY]

o

 

Merge request.

 

 

 

o

[JohnD]

Finished as the Carolina League MVP at an age appropriate level.  It seems like he really worked on cutting down the strikeouts this year, and it showed during the second half.  He finished averaging about a K for every 4 abs.  A few months ago he around 3.5 abs, just like last year.  So that's encouraging.

Will he get too big to be an effective OF?  

Any other thoughts?

[Luke-OH]

1 hour ago, JohnD said:

Finished as the Carolina League MVP at an age appropriate level.  It seems like he really worked on cutting down the strikeouts this year, and it showed during the second half.  He finished averaging about a K for every 4 abs.  A few months ago he around 3.5 abs, just like last year.  So that's encouraging.

Will he get too big to be an effective OF?  

Any other thoughts?

In the games I watched, he was surprisingly competent in RF and occasionally LF.  He's not going to add value out there (not particularly fast) but I think he'll be ok.  His problem is approach, he's a guess and rip guy, very little pitch recognition but he makes it work because he has good control over the bat head (it's the opposite of a grooved swing).  This may stem from his noisy pre-swing movements (they slow down his bat so he can't let the ball travel and still get to it).  It looks like he's trying to simplify his swing, but it's not there yet.  My concern is that better pitchers with better command are going to exploit his lack of choosiness at the plate.

[Frobby]

42 minutes ago, phillyOs119 said:

My concern is that better pitchers with better command are going to exploit his lack of choosiness at the plate.

It seems like you could say this about virtually all of our top prospects (except Stewart), and 75% of our major league team.    This organization seems to have a free swinging philosophy top to bottom.  

[Luke-OH]

13 minutes ago, Frobby said:

It seems like you could say this about virtually all of our top prospects (except Stewart), and 75% of our major league team.    This organization seems to have a free swinging philosophy top to bottom.  

I may have explained it better in my Rifaela write up.  Mountcastle and Hays are free swingers, but they generally swing at pitches over the plate and let bad pitches go.  They react to what they see.  Rifaela seems to either decide before the wind-up not to swing or to swing and no matter where the ball goes he sticks to that decision.  I'm exaggerating a little bit, but it is very different than a normal aggressive approach.  The only guy on the Orioles that ever does what Rifaela does is Chris Davis when he's not seeing the ball.

Edit: to clarify the Chris Davis comparison, Rifaela doesn't have anywhere near the power Chris Davis has, Rifaela's HR power is pull-only from what I've seen.  Rifaela does have the ability to manipulate the swing in route to the ball (which Davis does not).  This will limit Rifaela's strikeouts, but it leads to a lot of weak contact (think Kim when he was struggling, throwing the bat at pitches).