2017 4th round pick (128): Jack Conlon - RHP - Clements HS (TX)

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, Number5 said:

No reason to screw the guy if you know you can't sign him.  Perhaps a relationship with an agent can be salvaged.  Who knows?

It will be interesting to find out what happened.

How is he being screwed?  He has a commitment to play college ball and he could have gone to a CC and reentered the draft next year.

I think you don't let another team possibly forgo the draft slotting to sign a player you selected.  Odds are good he never makes it but will you feel the same way if he is toeing the rubber for the Yankees in four years?

[Number5]

1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

How is he being screwed?  He has a commitment to play college ball and he could have gone to a CC and reentered the draft next year.

I think you don't let another team possibly forgo the draft slotting to sign a player you selected.  Odds are good he never makes it but will you feel the same way if he is toeing the rubber for the Yankees in four years?

Since that could happen either way, yes.  Not offering a contract gives the player the additional option of seeking a contract thru free agency.  Offering him at least 40% of slot reduces his options.  He's certainly not pitching in the majors this year or next in any case.

[stef]

Jim Callis‏Verified account @jimcallisMLB 1m1 minute ago

I have gotten clarification from MLB source: Unsigned @Orioles 4th-rder Jack Conlon will be an unrestricted free agent.

[Can_of_corn]

6 minutes ago, Number5 said:

Since that could happen either way, yes.  Not offering a contract gives the player the additional option of seeking a contract thru free agency.  Offering him at least 40% of slot reduces his options.  He's certainly not pitching in the majors this year or next in any case.

How can this happen if the O's don't allow it to happen?

[Number5]

Just now, Can_of_corn said:

How can this happen if the O's don't allow it to happen?

He can be pitching for the Yankees in four years either way.

[stef]

Quote

 

The Orioles did not sign fourth-round pick Jack Conlon, a Texas A&M signee out of Clemens High in Sugar Land, Texas. But that’s not where the story ends.

Sources indicated to BA and an official with Major League Baseball has confirmed that Conlon will become a free agent.

Draft rules state that if a player fails his physical, the team must offer the player 40 percent of the slot value of the pick in order to receive a compensation pick. If the team makes no offer, the player becomes an unrestricted free agent and is not subject to the draft bonus pool system, and the team cannot receive a compensation pick for the unsigned pick.

The Orioles alleged that Conlon failed his physical with the team, and they made no offer to Conlon after the results of his physical. Baltimore’s big league club, under owner Peter Angelos, has a long history of not signing players after physical exams, though those same players have passed physicals with other teams.

Conlon was expected to sign with the Orioles prior to the results of his physical, with his bonus demands likely being more than $1 million. Sources indicated there would be a 48-hour period before Conlon can start fielding free-agent offers, though MLB had yet to confirm that.

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/draft/unsigned-orioles-pick-jack-conlon-becomes-free-agent/#HVsTyQk6UYkWrUj7.97

 

 

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, Number5 said:

He can be pitching for the Yankees in four years either way.

On one hand he is an unrestricted free agent that can sign for any team without impacted their draft pools.  On the other hand he will need to re-enter the draft, use up a team's draft pick and a portion of their draft pool.

It isn't close to the same thing.

 

[Number5]

2 minutes ago, stef said:

http://www.baseballamerica.com/draft/unsigned-orioles-pick-jack-conlon-becomes-free-agent/#HVsTyQk6UYkWrUj7.97

 

 

Was I wrong in thinking that the Orioles could not receive compensation for not signing Conlon in any case, whether they made him an offer or not?

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, Number5 said:

Was I wrong in thinking that the Orioles could not receive compensation for not signing Conlon in any case, whether they made him an offer or not?

They would not.

I don't know what they could have seen in a physical that would make 164K too high a price.

[Number5]

Just now, Can_of_corn said:

On one hand he is an unrestricted free agent that can sign for any team without impacted their draft pools.  On the other hand he will need to re-enter the draft, use up a team's draft pick and a portion of their draft pool.

It isn't close to the same thing.

 

You asked if I would feel the same if he was pitching for the Yankees in four years.  My answer was, and is, yes, I would feel exactly the same way.  Offering him a 40% of slot contract in no way precludes the possibility of him ending up with a division rival and, as I pointed out, may help keep some fences mended relationship-wise.  I see no reason to put the kid in a worse spot than he already is.  Failing the physical hurts.  At least he has the option of trying to sign on elsewhere in addition to the option of going to college.  If you feel being hard-nosed and offering a 40% contract that you know he won't sign is the way to go, so be it.  I disagree.  Oddly, just an hour ago you were suggesting that the Orioles might well be intentionally low-balling so they wouldn't have to spend the money and now you are advocating that they do just that.

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, Number5 said:

You asked if I would feel the same if he was pitching for the Yankees in four years.  My answer was, and is, yes, I would feel exactly the same way.  Offering him a 40% of slot contract in no way precludes the possibility of him ending up with a division rival and, as I pointed out, may help keep some fences mended relationship-wise.  I see no reason to put the kid in a worse spot than he already is.  Failing the physical hurts.  At least he has the option of trying to sign on elsewhere in addition to the option of going to college.  If you feel being hard-nosed and offering a 40% contract that you know he won't sign is the way to go, so be it.  I disagree.  Oddly, just an hour ago you were suggesting that the Orioles might well be intentionally low-balling so they wouldn't have to spend the money and now you are advocating that they do just that.

To me it would be a lot different if the O's gave an advantage like that to another team and it came back to bite them.  The smart money says to make the 40% offer.  A "mended fence" with an agent isn't worth anything.

I don't see how thinking the O's are not willing to risk 164K is outside of the theory I had earlier.  At the end of the day they have a fair bit of draft money back in their pocket.

I'm not even one of those conspiracy theorists that think the O's intentional fail pitchers so they can renegotiate terms.

[Number5]

12 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

They would not.

I don't know what they could have seen in a physical that would make 164K too high a price.

I'd guess that they talked to the player and his representation and found that such an offer had no chance of being accepted.  We will probably never know for sure, but I tend to think DD, et al, actually do their jobs.

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, Number5 said:

I'd guess that they talked to the player and his representation and found that such an offer had no chance of being accepted.  We will probably never know for sure, but I tend to think DD, et al, actually do their jobs.

I've never said Dan doesn't do his job.

The question is how does this fit into his job?

It makes no sense for the Orioles  to not extend a 40% offer they know won't be accepted.  No gain exists for them in that scenario. 

[Number5]

6 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

To me it would be a lot different if the O's gave an advantage like that to another team and it came back to bite them.  The smart money says to make the 40% offer.  A "mended fence" with an agent isn't worth anything.

I don't see how thinking the O's are not willing to risk 164K is outside of the theory I had earlier.  At the end of the day they have a fair bit of draft money back in their pocket.

I'm not even one of those conspiracy theorists that think the O's intentional fail pitchers so they can renegotiate terms.

Again, we have no reason to assume that DD didn't discuss a lesser offer only to find that it would have no chance.  Given that, no offer seems a reasonable course, unless you want to play hard ball and force the kid to go to college.  I disagree with you on that, as I said before.  I just see no benefit to that tactic.

[Chavez Ravine]

5 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I've never said Dan doesn't do his job.

The question is how does this fit into his job?

It makes no sense for the Orioles  to not extend a 40% offer they know won't be accepted.  No gain exists for them in that scenario. 

I think the more fundamental thing is that they were so discouraged by the physical that they didn't offer the 1 million or whatever he was originally looking for. If you were going to leave the money on the table anyway, why not gamble? Turn him into a knuckleballer. Coming up snake eyes is not going to break the bank. That physical must have really been prognosis negative.

I can see not offering the 40% just to be nice.  That seems ancillary to the bigger question.