2017 4th round pick (128): Jack Conlon - RHP - Clements HS (TX)

[stef]

2 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

He could have had two more second round and five more first round picks to help his cause.  (I'm not counting the loss of the Cruz pick since it turned into a first rounder the next year.)

Jimenez, Gallardo, Davis, Trumbo and...? Thanks. 

[Luke-OH]

21 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

You can have any opinion you like, but go ahead and tell us about all the impact major league talent Rajsich has drafted. Tell me about all the major league ready starters in the system? Tell me about one everyday shortstop  prospect in the system. 

Out of the three best position prospects in the system, two have unknown positions at the major league level.

So besides the lack of legitimate major league starting prospects, any infield prospects, and lack of legitimate impact talent, please let us know why you think Rajsich has done such a great job?

As for signing guys, he's done a good job up until this year and I don't have the whole story so I'm not blaming him for the Conlon thing at all. What I am saying is he's had 6 drafts and the system is one of the worse in baseball. 

His best draft pick so far has been Trey Mancini, and he's a development success story after making adjustments after a terrible Delmarva year. 

 

I didn't say he's done a great job, I'm saying that he's done an average job at least with what he's had to work with.

His first draft produced Hader and Gausman, a solid MLBer and a top 100 prospect who just debuted.

His second draft produced Sisco (top 100 prospect), Mancini, Steven Brault, and Donnie Hart plus a handful of others of some interest whose future isn't determined but could be something including Gassasway, Yacabonis, Wynns, and Hunter Harvey.

His third draft was poor, but he had the smallest pool of any team to work with and didn't pick til #90.

His fourth draft and fifth drafts are too early to judge but they look very solid so far.

 

And to talk about impact talent, the amount of impact talent drafted after the first round is pretty thin, look at other teams top prospects and see how many impact prospects were drafted after the 1st round or even in the second half of the first round.

[glenn__davis]

19 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

You can have any opinion you like, but go ahead and tell us about all the impact major league talent Rajsich has drafted. Tell me about all the major league ready starters in the system? Tell me about one everyday shortstop  prospect in the system. 

Out of the three best position prospects in the system, two have unknown positions at the major league level.

So besides the lack of legitimate major league starting prospects, any infield prospects, and lack of legitimate impact talent, please let us know why you think Rajsich has done such a great job?

As for signing guys, he's done a good job up until this year and I don't have the whole story so I'm not blaming him for the Conlon thing at all. What I am saying is he's had 6 drafts and the system is one of the worse in baseball. 

His best draft pick so far has been Trey Mancini, and he's a development success story after making adjustments after a terrible Delmarva year. 

 

I don't think anyone said he was "great".  phillyO's used the word "solid", and I think I'd agree with that.

Regarding some of the evidence you cite above, he's had a lot of things working against him.  Zero help from the international side of things.  Multiple draft picks given away or lost to sign mediocre talent.  Aside from Gausman, he's also been picking late in the 1st round, as opposed to his predecessor who usually had a top 5 pick.  One of his best picks (Harvey) has been injured.  In the 2013 draft the O's basically punted on the draft, and the guy that seems like he might have potential decided to play basketball instead.

He's found some decent talent in later rounds that Jordan doesn't seem to have been able to find.  Mancini, Mullins, even a guy like Hays as 3rd rounder.

Again, I don't think anyone thinks he's been phenomenal, but given all of the limitations he's had, I think he's been OK, and he'd be pretty far down on the list of who I would blame for why our system is where it is.  He's had some big misses for sure though, with Josh Hart coming to mind right away.

[Can_of_corn]

14 minutes ago, stef said:

Jimenez, Gallardo, Davis, Trumbo and...? Thanks. 

Norris.

[Luke-OH]

To add to my previous argument, according to the hardball times in this article, a 1-5 overall pick has a 55% chance of being worth 3+ WAR in his years of team control, and a 35% chance of being worth 10+ WAR in those same years.  

Gausman is the only guy Rajsich had an oppurtunity to pick higher than 1.21, even with his struggles this season, he has produced 8.0 WAR and he still has 3 and a half more years of team control.  He's already beat 45% of guys drafted in his range, and even if he continues to pitch as poorly as he has so far this season, he'll be well past 10 WAR before he hits free agency, putting him in the top third of all guys drafted in that range.  I'd say that is a solid pick.

 

[Tony-OH]

50 minutes ago, glenn__davis said:

I don't think anyone said he was "great".  phillyO's used the word "solid", and I think I'd agree with that.

Regarding some of the evidence you cite above, he's had a lot of things working against him.  Zero help from the international side of things.  Multiple draft picks given away or lost to sign mediocre talent.  Aside from Gausman, he's also been picking late in the 1st round, as opposed to his predecessor who usually had a top 5 pick.  One of his best picks (Harvey) has been injured.  In the 2013 draft the O's basically punted on the draft, and the guy that seems like he might have potential decided to play basketball instead.

He's found some decent talent in later rounds that Jordan doesn't seem to have been able to find.  Mancini, Mullins, even a guy like Hays as 3rd rounder.

Again, I don't think anyone thinks he's been phenomenal, but given all of the limitations he's had, I think he's been OK, and he'd be pretty far down on the list of who I would blame for why our system is where it is.  He's had some big misses for sure though, with Josh Hart coming to mind right away.

You sound like you should be his agent. Hey, by all means, have any opinion you want. I see a terrible system and lack of real athletes and dearth of starting pitching prospects. The Orioles aversion to signing international players is certainly part of the issue, but not part of this discussion so we won't get into it, but even the guys you point out have done what for the Orioles?

Mancini was a nice pick, but he made major adjustments with the development staff after his Delmarva signing. Gausman was a miss for the 4th overall pick. Hader was a flier on a local kid on the behast of local scout Dean Albany, so let's not act like their was some amazing plan there. Even Albany will tell you he never saw him becoming this good and besides, Albany has basically been set aside by Rajsich so if you wanna give credit to the O's scouting for Hader, realize the scout that found him is no longer has much if any say in amateur scouting now.

Mullins, most people still think he;s a 4th outfielder, Sisco? If you like platoon catchers who can't control the running game and without much power then he's your guy.

Sure, Hays and Mountcastle look good so far, but both are nothing more than prospects who have some holes in their games, not guaranteed impact players.

Where are the shortstop prospects? Who are the pitchers that he's drafted that are legitimate starting pitching prospects? He's had six years and the system doesn't have one sure fire legitimate starting pitching prospect. Even Akin, who I like a bit is seen as a reliever by some scouts.

Look, as an Orioles fan, I want to be positive and I want the players to become solid major leaguers, but as an evaluator and guy who talks to many people in the industry, this system is not very good and Rajsich's drafting is part of the problem.

It's nothing personal. I don't really know Rajsich. I talked to him after his first and 2nd drafts and after he basically told me every pitcher were three and four pitch guys with plus pitches, I realized he was either throwing my fluff or over evaluates guys terribly. I realized it wasn't really worth my time to dicuss the players anymore so I wait until I see them or guys I know and trust see them before evaluating them.

[glenn__davis]

I don't disagree with much of what you say regarding the general lack of talent Tony, I'm just saying that you need to grade on the curve a bit.  You of all people know how difficult it is to find talent later in the draft.  When you've lost/given up as many picks as we have, when you're picking later in the first round, when you get no international influx, the system just isn't going to be as good.

Regarding pitching I'd agree that that's a concern, but the organization's problems developing pitching are going on about 30 years now, to the point that you have to thing the issues are as much developmental as they are scouting.  And I'm not totally absolving Rajisch of that, but there are other issues there as well.

Again, the key being for what he's had to work with, he's done OK IMO.  Not great, but OK.

[Luke-OH]

I'm not talking as a fan in this case, and I've never spoke to Rajsich and my defense of him is based solely on what I think of his results.  I think where we differ on the is not our assessment of his picks, but our assessment of how well an average team drafts.  The Gausman statement is proof of that, statistically Gausman is an above average 4th overall pick even if he retires today.  

I'm happy to agree to disagree and revisit this in a few years when we have a better idea of how some of these draft classes turned out.  And again, I think he's done a solid job, not a great job.

[AZRon]

7 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

You can have any opinion you like, but go ahead and tell us about all the impact major league talent Rajsich has drafted. Tell me about all the major league ready starters in the system? Tell me about one everyday shortstop  prospect in the system.....

 

My recollection is that Tony also had an unfavorable view of Joe Jordan's performance.  Is that correct?

In any event, I'd like to compare Gary Rajsich's results as the O's scouting director to those of his peers.

I would appreciate recommendations on how such a comparison be done?

My thought is to review each draft round and to evaluate the status of all draft picks subsequent to the O's selection and prior to the Orioles next pick.  Ex: in 2012, the O's picked Gausman in the 1st round at #4.  I would compare Gausman's performance to that of all draft picks from round 1 pick #5 through round 2, pick #4.  The Orioles had the 5th pick in round 2 (an unbelievable #65 in the draft).  

Thoughts please.

[Tony-OH]

13 hours ago, AZRon said:

My recollection is that Tony also had an unfavorable view of Joe Jordan's performance.  Is that correct?

In any event, I'd like to compare Gary Rajsich's results as the O's scouting director to those of his peers.

I would appreciate recommendations on how such a comparison be done?

My thought is to review each draft round and to evaluate the status of all draft picks subsequent to the O's selection and prior to the Orioles next pick.  Ex: in 2012, the O's picked Gausman in the 1st round at #4.  I would compare Gausman's performance to that of all draft picks from round 1 pick #5 through round 2, pick #4.  The Orioles had the 5th pick in round 2 (an unbelievable #65 in the draft).  

Thoughts please.

I actually didn't think Jordan was that bad once he got going. He missed badly with several 1st rounders like Snyder, Rowell, and Hobgood, but he also hit with Wieters and Machado. He also drafted Davies when everyone saw him as a short skinny right-hander and got Zach Britton in the 3rd round.

Drafting is hard, and I'm well aware of the average value of picks through the draft, but at the end of the day, if you have six drafts and you can't find one impact player in your system that is ready to help out the major league team you haven't done your job well IMHO.

Now I'm not blaming Rajsich totally for the Orioles poor system, nor do I think he's terrible at everything. Honestly, he's found some value outside of the first round in guys like Mancini and Hart, but I'll never understand his aversion to drafting shortstops (who are normally the best athletes on their teams) and true center fielders and he's struggled to find legitimate starting pitching candidates or even power relievers who can come up and help out quickly.

 

 

[Luke-OH]

5 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

I actually didn't think Jordan was that bad once he got going. He missed badly with several 1st rounders like Snyder, Rowell, and Hobgood, but he also hit with Wieters and Machado. He also drafted Davies when everyone saw him as a short skinny right-hander and got Zach Britton in the 3rd round.

Drafting is hard, and I'm well aware of the average value of picks through the draft, but at the end of the day, if you have six drafts and you can't find one impact player in your system that is ready to help out the major league team you haven't done your job well IMHO.

Now I'm not blaming Rajsich totally for the Orioles poor system, nor do I think he's terrible at everything. Honestly, he's found some value outside of the first round in guys like Mancini and Hart, but I'll never understand his aversion to drafting shortstops (who are normally the best athletes on their teams) and true center fielders and he's struggled to find legitimate starting pitching candidates or even power relievers who can come up and help out quickly.

 

 

I agree with you about drafting true shortstops, I think he tries a little too hard to get cutesy picking guys other teams overlooked because of injury, role, or lack of position.  Hopefully Adam Hall turns into something, he's a guy who scouts think will be able to stick.

[mcgraw238]

23 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

You sound like you should be his agent. Hey, by all means, have any opinion you want. I see a terrible system and lack of real athletes and dearth of starting pitching prospects. The Orioles aversion to signing international players is certainly part of the issue, but not part of this discussion so we won't get into it, but even the guys you point out have done what for the Orioles?

Mancini was a nice pick, but he made major adjustments with the development staff after his Delmarva signing. Gausman was a miss for the 4th overall pick. Hader was a flier on a local kid on the behast of local scout Dean Albany, so let's not act like their was some amazing plan there. Even Albany will tell you he never saw him becoming this good and besides, Albany has basically been set aside by Rajsich so if you wanna give credit to the O's scouting for Hader, realize the scout that found him is no longer has much if any say in amateur scouting now.

Mullins, most people still think he;s a 4th outfielder, Sisco? If you like platoon catchers who can't control the running game and without much power then he's your guy.

Sure, Hays and Mountcastle look good so far, but both are nothing more than prospects who have some holes in their games, not guaranteed impact players.

Where are the shortstop prospects? Who are the pitchers that he's drafted that are legitimate starting pitching prospects? He's had six years and the system doesn't have one sure fire legitimate starting pitching prospect. Even Akin, who I like a bit is seen as a reliever by some scouts.

Look, as an Orioles fan, I want to be positive and I want the players to become solid major leaguers, but as an evaluator and guy who talks to many people in the industry, this system is not very good and Rajsich's drafting is part of the problem.

It's nothing personal. I don't really know Rajsich. I talked to him after his first and 2nd drafts and after he basically told me every pitcher were three and four pitch guys with plus pitches, I realized he was either throwing my fluff or over evaluates guys terribly. I realized it wasn't really worth my time to dicuss the players anymore so I wait until I see them or guys I know and trust see them before evaluating them.

That's a depressing summary of the state of the farm.

[hoosiers]

I don't like the state of the farm system, but I don't think the scouting director should get major blame.  A couple thoughts:

 - As noted, Joe Jordan drafted much higher than Rajisch has.  Sure, teams miss on early picks, but Jordan had multiple top five and top 10 picks.  I liked Joe Jordan a lot, and am glad that since Jordan left, the script has been flipped a bit with the success of Jake, Zach, Givens, and a couple others.

 - the draft has changed - Joe Jordan drafted without a pool and received budget support to sign guys like Coffey and Ohlman for $1M after round 10.  Rajisch has pool limitations besides drafting lower.

 - our GM has forfeited/dealt away about five top 50 and top 100 draft picks - about one a year.  In 2014, the Os had the lowest draft pool and didn't pick until 90th overall.  This makes it difficult on the scouting director.

 - if you are going to look at the body of work, IMO one has to give credit to the scouting director for someone like Josh Hader.  It's funny that when other late round guys pan out for other organizations we give credit to that organization (scouting director and scouts) and then complain we don't have draft success like that - but we did.  And our GM traded that guy away.  Mancini was an eighth rounder.  More than a few picks have shown themselves to be much, much better than their draft position - Harvey, Cisco, Mountcastle, Hays and others.  On paper, DL Hall was a steal where we picked him.

Tony has usually a "proof is in the results" and in this case we have a poor farm system, but I believe Raj has done well with the picks and pool he has been given - an opinion I have posted before.  I would really like to see how Raj does with a bigger pool because of higher drafting position, a supplemental round pick, etc.  I think he would do well - and he might get that chance next year (depending on whether DD and/or GR is back).

[MDtransplant757]

On 7/12/2017 at 9:58 AM, Tony-OH said:

I actually didn't think Jordan was that bad once he got going. He missed badly with several 1st rounders like Snyder, Rowell, and Hobgood, but he also hit with Wieters and Machado. He also drafted Davies when everyone saw him as a short skinny right-hander and got Zach Britton in the 3rd round.

Drafting is hard, and I'm well aware of the average value of picks through the draft, but at the end of the day, if you have six drafts and you can't find one impact player in your system that is ready to help out the major league team you haven't done your job well IMHO.

Now I'm not blaming Rajsich totally for the Orioles poor system, nor do I think he's terrible at everything. Honestly, he's found some value outside of the first round in guys like Mancini and Hart, but I'll never understand his aversion to drafting shortstops (who are normally the best athletes on their teams) and true center fielders and he's struggled to find legitimate starting pitching candidates or even power relievers who can come up and help out quickly.

 

 

Jordan picked Weiters and Macahdo because they were the obvious "You're an idiot if you pick this guy" picks. 

Let's look at guys who have come up who were drafted by Jordan, shall we?

2005: Nolan Reimold

2006: Pedro Beato, Zack Britton. 

2007: Weiters, Arrieta. 
2008: Matusz (Ultimate dissapointment), Caleb Joseph and Eddie Gamboa. 

2009: Mychael Givens. 

2010: Manny Machado, Parker Birdwell

2011: Dylan Bundy, Mike Wright and Tyler Wilson

Some horrendous picks, and some great ones too. 

The fact of the matter is that since the mid 80's, this organization has drafted horribly and can't develop starting pitching for anything. The best two starters we've developed since 1983 are Mike Mussina and Chris Tillman (he was in AA at the time, I feel it counts). If you don't count Tillman because we didn't draft him, then Gausman is in that spot.

Luck is also a big factor too. Matusz getting hurt was a massive blow to him and this team in terms of drafting starters. Arrieta just sucked here because insert your thoughts on the situation. Parker Birdwell was minor league filer, and now is good in Anaheim. Bundy is doing ok, Wright is a BP piece and Wilson is horrendous. Britton was never a good starter, but developed into a dominant closer.  This, compacted with a stupid owner who chased Pat Gillick and Davey Johnson out of town and is almost unanimously to blame for the 14 year stretch of horrendous baseball I grew up with. Look who he put in charge and how he meddled, pissing off GM's and personell in the warehouse. Denying to trade guys, signing Albert Belle, the 2005 offseason and Miguel Tejada are all Angelos trying to be Geroge Steinbrenner without the good scouting department and scouting director in the 70's and early 80's. The only reason the Yankees are/were as good as they are/were is because Steinbrenner was trying to dig up dirt on Dave Winfield and got banned. Cashman rebuilt the Yankees, like MacPhail did to a lesser extent. We unfortunately didn't receive such good fortune. Syd Thrift and him were the reason the scouting department went to utter garbage in 2001, and was gutted until Flannigan came in and tried to rebuild it. I personally blame Angelos for one of the reasons Flannigan isn't here with us today, because he couldn't rebuild the team due to Angelos' pure incompitance as an owner, along with Jim Beattie and Jim Duquette. Speaking of which, after Gillick and Johnson, look who he hired as GM and manager. 

GM: Frank Wren, Syd Thrift, Jim Beattie and Mike Flannigan, Mike Flannigan and Jim Duquette, Andy MacPhail and Dan Duquette. 

Manager: Ray Miller, Mike Hargrove, Lee Mazzili, Sam Perloozo, Dave Trembly, Juan Segara and Buck Showalter. 

This is the sign of an owner who doesn't know what in the hell he's doing and is so desperate to win that the franchise became wildly mediocre because of him. 

Pitching wise, Akin is all I have hope in. Sedlock is Brad Brach. I have hope in Sisco, Mullins, Hays and Mountcastle though. Sisco has found his stride in Norfolk now, Mullins would look even better if his hamstring wasn't hurt, Hays is young Vladimir Gurrero and Mountcastle can hit like a machine. If you can't hit and compitently play defense, you'll be a Major Leaguer. 

[Can_of_corn]

You think Matusz was a bigger disappointment than Hobgood?