2017 4th round pick (128): Jack Conlon - RHP - Clements HS (TX)

[glenn__davis]

27 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

You think Matusz was a bigger disappointment than Hobgood?

Hobgood was never healthy.  I was not the biggest Jordan fan, but I think his strategy in that draft was sound.  He didn't think there was much difference between Hobgood and some of higher-ranked guys, so he tried to save some money to spend on guys later in the draft.  

Ultimately Hobgood obviously was a disappointment, but for Jordan's sake I would have like to have seen what would have been had he been healthy.

[MDtransplant757]

42 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

You think Matusz was a bigger disappointment than Hobgood?

Yes. Hobgood was an awful pick, but Matusz looked like and was practically the guy who would lead us back to the promised land until 2011. 

[glenn__davis]

So I wasn't paying much attention at the time, how did Mike Trout fall to no. 25?  Was he considered a tough sign, or just a case where a guy blew up and the Angels were the beneficiary?

[hoosiers]

You gotta love people who say that drafting Machado and Wieters were obvious "you're an idiot if you don't take this guy".  I'd love have that crystal ball - the one that says to avoid Matusz and Bundy and misses that the Pirates took Taillon over Manny.  All of those guys were not only consensus top talents in their draft class but highly ranked prospects after turning pro.

I followed Joe Jordan's drafts very closely, did write-ups for the picks for the Hanout, and I think the final script on his drafting is that he did fine.  He had top picks that worked out and ones that didn't.  IMO, there was too much focus on physical attributes and present tools.  There were more than a few guys who were not very likely to get past AAA - especially in the first five rounds - guys like Bascom, Hamblet, Miclat, Hudson, Townsend, Mummey - all in the first five rounds and IMO really not all that exciting a profile.  Many of Jordan's fliers like Coffey, Ohlman, Delmonico did not pan out though Jake eventually did.  I think Jordan thought he drafted fine but that our development guys were subpar.

[Luke-OH]

4 hours ago, glenn__davis said:

So I wasn't paying much attention at the time, how did Mike Trout fall to no. 25?  Was he considered a tough sign, or just a case where a guy blew up and the Angels were the beneficiary?

The general consensus is that teams need to get a long look with multiple eyes on guys going early in the draft.  Being in NJ, not playing in a ton of showcases and tournaments, and having a lot of rainouts early in his senior season led to teams not having enough confidence in their assessment of Trout to take him at the very top of the draft.  Also, while he had a great season as a junior, he didn't really make the jump to a first couple rounds prospect until he dropped pitching and moved from shortstop to centerfield between junior and senior years.

They should of known he was going to be a star due to the fact he's related to me.

[Otter]

I agree that Rajisch has done a better job than Jordan, and while having much less to work with.  Sometimes I wonder if Gary ran over Dan's dog.  But the bottom line is that there are a group of people responsible for the sorry state of the farm system: Rajisch, Jordan, Duquette, player development, and ownership.  Jordan had some terrible drafts and well-publicized 1st round busts.  Rajisch has done a good job at finding some hitters, but has done a poor job in drafting legit SSs, good defenders, and high upside starting pitchers.  Player development has done a decent job developing some bats lately, but the failure to develop legit starting pitching prospects is striking.  But ultimately, I think Duquette and ownership bear the greatest responsibility for the decimation of the farm system.  And unfortunately, those two are the least likely to suffer consequences for their failures.

[TheOtherRipken]

14 hours ago, RZNJ said:

I would say that Rajisch hasn't been great but you can certainly make a case for him being decent and doing a better oveall job than Jordan considering where he's drafted, no chance for overslots like Jordan had (Davies/Ohlman/Coffee), and not as many picks to work with.

You can't state enough how much our system is hurt by how poor we do internationally.    In the BA 2017 Prospects Handbook, the Washington Nationals #1, #3, #4, #7, and #9 prospects were all signed as international amateur free agents.

I think you could make an argument that Rajisch has been a lot better than decent. How many draft picks has DD taken away through free agent signings and competitive balance pick trades? I dont think Rajisch has been given a fair chance and has still found talent. I think we pretty much agree with each other overall though, its just semantics.

Edited July 17, 2017 by TheOtherRipken

[weams]

Rosenthal Resolution

Quote

• Major League Baseball’s deadline to sign draft picks this year was July 7, yet the Orioles didn’t ink 26th-rounder Cameron Bishop until Sunday, as Ken Rosenthal of MLB Network reported. While the Orioles submitted the deal (worth $605K) five minutes past the 5 p.m. ET deadline on the 7th, Bishop actually agreed to it on the 5th and passed a physical on the 6th, relays Rosenthal. With that in mind, the league determined that it would be unfair to punish the left-hander because of a delay by the O’s, so it signed off on the pact.

 

 

[bobmc]

Conlon's bud Lamar Sparks has started his pro career with the GCL O's and has an OF A, couple of SB's and a few BB's to go with his 4 K's, while batting .273 in 6 G:

 http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp?sid=milb&player_id=676473#/career/R/hitting/2017/ALL

[Jammer7]

To me, it's clear that Gary Rajsich has had a much better run than Joe Jordan at Scouting Director. It takes a year or two to get your scouts in place. Since then, he has drafted a bunch of high upside high school talent that needs to be developed. It's fair to say both have had their share of success and misses.

 

Jordan's misses are much much more glaring. Matusz is not Jordan's fault, not a scouting "miss." That mess happened somewhere in the organization during his first few years. And yes, Manny Machado and Matt Wieters were "no brainers," like RZNJ explained above. So was Dylan Bundy. But when you take a Matt Hobgood and a Billy Rowell with high picks, you deserve to be criticized. It comes with the job. Jason Esposito in round 2 2011 was an awful pick as well. But Zachary Davies in round 26, great value there in 2011, JJ's last draft. And Bridwell in round 9 in 2010 worked out decently, just not for us. Mychal Givens (round 2 2009) worked out well, just not as a MIF. And JJ did draft Arrieta in round 5 2007, after Jake fell due to signability. Zachary Britton in round 3 2006 makes up for the rest of that terrible draft. 

 

You could say that Kevin Gausman in 2012, Rajsich' first draft, was a similar pick to Matusz. In that, he wasn't a "no brainer," but he was a consensus top pick. Mancini (round 8 2013) was a great value. You can say he only became a great hitter after...whatever. He was drafted by Gary Rajsich. Steven Brault (round 11 2013) and Josh Hader (round 19 2012) were also drafted by GR, and they are in the ML elsewhere. 

 

If Hunter Harvey comes back strong, Sisco's defense keeps improving and his power comes through, Gassaway (round 16 2013) develops power, Branden Kline comes all the way back, Brian Gonzalez makes it back to his 2016 form, Tanner Scott keeps improving his secondary pitches, David Hess keeps momentum from last few starts...the list goes on...but if half of that works out, especially Harvey, then GR has drafted players and they were developed. I was not a fan of the DJ Stewart pick, and I was quite critical. But it looks like he may just be panning out somewhat. Not sure he'll be an everyday LF, but he may just hit afterall. Not sure his production and career will be befitting the 25th overall pick, but meh, maybe not a bust. Sedlock is injured, and there is no way he was as bad as the numbers this year. Akin is turning things around. Curran may be a hitter. Mountcastle's results speak for themselves. Garrett Cleavinger may be a bulllen piece before too long. Hanifee and Myers show promise. Hays is a major success story for GR and the development staff as well. Dietz is showing signs of coming around as well. Mullins, I am very excited about. A possible lead off guy...we really need some guys who are more OBP contact oriented with speed. 

 

There are more players, by far, in the system today who may someday play in the ML than ever before. The problem is, not much of the impact variety. Not much at premium positions, although Hays may be a CF and Sisco has a shot to have impact at C. We are barren of MIF talent, and everyone knows it. Mountcastle may just be an impact bat, but where does he play? Mullins is exciting, but where does he play? If Adam Hall works out to be as advertised, it really helps. We are also poor at developing starting pitching. We turn out a ton of relievers, but starters other than Gausman and Bundy...not so much. Although Hader, Brault and Ed Rod would have been nice, they developed and improved with other organizations. Arrieta, Bridwell, uh never mind. 

 

The biggest problem is, and has always been in the Angelos years, the organizational culture. I like that DD has given Rajsich the freedom to take some guys that need time to develop. We'll see if his picks work out. Tough to get impact everyday players when you often spend your first picks on pitchers due to organizational need. Then you draft in the latter part of the first round because your team is in the playoffs regularly, albeit a mediocre playoff team.

 

If DD would stop trading away compensation B picks, there may be a few more talented kids in the system. If the team would allow international signings of FA, our talent would be  bolstered perhaps. The farm system is what it is. But look at what it has produced for trades and for players at our ML club. Look at the talent level now compared to 2011. It's a startling difference for the better. I am not saying GR is a genius, but he is certainly an above average Scouting Director. JJ was below average. 

[sportsfan8703]

I like Rajsich.  Getting Bishop done proves that he had a back up plan.  Plus it's not his fault that DD has traded away so many assets, whether they be players or comp picks.  

Since 2013, Rajsich has been picking in the 20's and has had 7ish 1st/2nd rd picks lost by DD.   

[DirtyBird]

 

[Can_of_corn]

6 minutes ago, DirtyBird said:

 

Still needs to pass the physical.  I'm not sure who leaked this to Ken but I certainly wouldn't have until the physical was finished.

I do expect him to pass the physical.

[sportsfan8703]

Wonder how many US amateurs this is gonna make mad?  They are gonna see what Conlon gets on an open market, just like the international guys. Meanwhile they are subject to the draft process and a draft salary cap essentially. 

I know the medicals weren't right for us, but at least we get to rock the boat a little bit. Make it fair. Have the international guys enter the same draft. 

[hoosiers]

1 hour ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Wonder how many US amateurs this is gonna make mad?  They are gonna see what Conlon gets on an open market, just like the international guys. Meanwhile they are subject to the draft process and a draft salary cap essentially. 

I know the medicals weren't right for us, but at least we get to rock the boat a little bit. Make it fair. Have the international guys enter the same draft. 

Let's see what Conlon gets.  Remember that it appeared the Os were going to sign Conlon for about $1M - give or take - and that Conlon has passed a physical.  I imagine Conlon is going to receive less than what he agreed to with the Os - so I think it is a bit much to say other US amateurs are going to be upset about Conlon's open market signing bonus.