2017 4th round pick (128): Jack Conlon - RHP - Clements HS (TX)

[Number5]

Maybe A&M boosters offered him more than we did. 

[hoosiers]

The question IMO is really whether Conlon or any of our draft picks changed their number post draft.  Because while I expect our draft staff goes through dozens of scenarios on who will be available with our first round pick and then what combination of players to take in the first 10 rounds to fit within our slot budget, not having $1.2M for Conlon after drafting him in round 4 is pretty disappointing and might suggest that drafting DL Hall with our first pick and going overslot there was not a scenario we had planned for.  Clearly, we did not have $ for DL Hall, Adam Hall and Conlon after drafting them and, if no one changed their number, it would appear we were drafting on the fly after taking DL Hall.

As I said, I really like Conlon's profile and think we should be paying the tax necessary to land Conlon.

Thankfully, hopefully, we have a back up plan in place and can put our under-slot $ to use and pick up a post tenth round talent.  

It appears RZ's skepticism regarding Conlon was warranted.  Disappointing.

[stef]

If the Os had signed their first two picks at slot then they would have had the 1.2 Conlon was asking for. Not saying the Os felt he was worth that or that is what they should have done but the math roughly adds up.

[Can_of_corn]

9 minutes ago, stef said:

If the Os had signed their first two picks at slot then they would have had the 1.2 Conlon was asking for. Not saying the Os felt he was worth that or that is what they should have done but the math roughly adds up.

They knew, everyone knew, DL Hall was going to be overslot.  

I'm sticking with my theory that it is a play to divert money from the draft to pay for the ML roster.

[stef]

1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

They knew, everyone knew, DL Hall was going to be overslot.  

I'm sticking with theory that it is a play to divert money from the draft to pay for the ML roster.

Are you saying they lowballed him so he wouldn't sign and they then wouldn't have to spend the money? Cynical but perhaps sadly true. Don't they save enough on tossing comp picks and skipping international signings? How close to the bone is the budget? Did DD say he would do all he could to get Peter a championship before Peter departed (keeping up the cynical but possibly true vibe)?

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, stef said:

Are you saying they lowballed him so he wouldn't sign and they then wouldn't have to spend the money? Cynical but perhaps sadly true. Don't they save enough on tossing comp picks and skipping international signings? How close to the bone is the budget? Did DD say he would do all he could to get Peter a championship before Peter departed (keeping up the cynical but possibly true vibe)?

They didn't trade the comp pick this year.

I'm not saying it is anything more than a fan theory without evidence to back it up.  Just something I have been thinking about for a couple months now.

[stef]

Oh, I know. I'm less happy about it now given that Conlon won't sign (nor perhaps any other well regarded HSers). It is a similar effect: not exactly shoving all the talent into the pipeline that they can. Maybe Trumbo would have signed for 36.3. if there wasn't all that competition for his services.

[Number5]

1 hour ago, Can_of_corn said:

They knew, everyone knew, DL Hall was going to be overslot.  

I'm sticking with my theory that it is a play to divert money from the draft to pay for the ML roster.

Not so sure about this.  I believe them when they say that they didn't expect Hall to be there for them.  He was projected to go earlier.  It makes sense, then, that Hall came at a higher price than whoever they were planning on taking in round 1, leaving less available to offer Conlon.  Conlon decided against accepting the amount the Orioles could offer after signing Hall.  He is gambling on himself, betting he will command a much higher pick that slots at much more money than whatever the Orioles offer was this time around when he is next eligible as a junior.  Hope it works out for the young man.

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, Number5 said:

Not so sure about this.  I believe them when they say that they didn't expect Hall to be there for them.  He was projected to go earlier.  It makes sense, then, that Hall came at a higher price than whoever they were planning on taking in round 1, leaving less available to offer Conlon.  Conlon decided against accepting the amount the Orioles could offer after signing Hall.  He is gambling on himself, betting he will command a much higher pick that slots at much more money than whatever the Orioles offer was this time around when he is next eligible as a junior.  Hope it works out for the young man.

It's a theory.

The problem with what you are suggesting is that they took Hall in the second round and Conlon in the fifth and you have to think they knew both were going to want more than slot.  This was of course after they picked DL Hall who was certainly going to be over slot.

If you know Hall and Hall are going to be overslot you don't pick another over slot guy in the fourth.

[Number5]

4 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

It's a theory.

The problem with what you are suggesting is that they took Hall in the second round and Conlon in the fifth and you have to think they knew both were going to want more than slot.  This was of course after they picked DL Hall who was certainly going to be over slot.

If you know Hall and Hall are going to be overslot you don't pick another over slot guy in the fourth.

Perhaps they felt good about their chances of signing Conlon for a little less than initially discussed, given the fact that Hall fell to them in round 1.  Seems reasonable to expect the player and his representative to recognize that the Orioles seized upon an opportunity that was unexpectedly presented to them.  They were still able to make Conlon a well-above-slot offer.  Conlon's number was apparently set in stone, and the difference was evidently enough to make going to college the more attractive option for him now, after he seemed gung-ho for going pro earlier.  In any case, it makes sense to me that the Orioles weren't about to pass up an opportunity to get Hall in order to pay Conlon what he wanted.  That makes a lot more sense to me than the suggestion that they intentionally drafted a player that they knew wouldn't sign at the max amount they could offer him.  I just wholly doubt that.

[Tryptamine]

 

Quote

 

Hudson Belinsky

 

✔ @hudsonbelinsky

Source: Unsigned #Orioles pick Jack Conlon will become unrestricted free agent. My understanding is that he can sign w/ the highest bidder.

4:21 PM - 7 Jul 2017 · Georgia, USA

 

 

So did the Oriole's really not even given Conlon the 40% offer to ensure they get a comp pick next year? That's the only way Conlon could possibly become a FA.

[Can_of_corn]

5 minutes ago, Number5 said:

Perhaps they felt good about their chances of signing Conlon for a little less than initially discussed, given the fact that Hall fell to them in round 1.  Seems reasonable to expect the player and his representative to recognize that the Orioles seized upon an opportunity that was unexpectedly presented to them.  They were still able to make Conlon a well-above-slot offer.  Conlon's number was apparently set in stone, and the difference was evidently enough to make going to college the more attractive option for him now, after he seemed gung-ho for going pro earlier.  In any case, it makes sense to me that the Orioles weren't about to pass up an opportunity to get Hall in order to pay Conlon what he wanted.  That makes a lot more sense to me than the suggestion that they intentionally drafted a player that they knew wouldn't sign at the max amount they could offer him.  I just wholly doubt that.

You have ever right to feel that way.

Me, I look at a team that has been trading away international slots and competitive balance picks while increasing spending on the ML team.  I think it is at least a possibility that they would rather spend assets on the ML team then on the draft/international market.

[Can_of_corn]

7 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

 

 

So did the Oriole's really not even given Conlon the 40% offer to ensure they get a comp pick next year? That's the only way Conlon could possibly become a FA.

Full story coming soon.

Will be a very interesting read.

[Can_of_corn]

 

Just when I thought they couldn't find a new way to embarrass me as a fan.  

Won't it be great if he signs with another AL East team and makes it to the majors?

[Number5]

1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

You have ever right to feel that way.

Me, I look at a team that has been trading away international slots and competitive balance picks while increasing spending on the ML team.  I think it is at least a possibility that they would rather spend assets on the ML team then on the draft/international market.

I agree they very well may prefer to allocate resources more in favor of the MLB team.  That seems to be the way they've been operating.  I just seriously doubt the suggestion that they would knowingly draft a player that they know will sign for an over-slot offer, but offer him less than the amount they know it will require.  That just makes no sense.  If that were the case money-wise, they could much more easily just draft and sign another player that demands less.  The fact that Conlon had strong ties with the round 5 choice underscores this.  To me, everything points to the Orioles truly wanting to sign Conlon.