TT: How bad are the Orioles?

[Going Underground]

7 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I didn't say that I wouldn't trade them Tony.  I said that if you did trade folks like Schoop it would be harder to make a two year turnaround.

Two years turnaround with the Orioles farm system seemd optimistic. The Phillies are still rebuilding but are supposed to be good in two years.It takes time and you have to have really bad records to get the top picks 

[O's84]

I remember Fangraphs ran the article about "The Orioles are doing it again" defying the projections again.  Since then we went into a tank.  I don't believe in jinx's outside of Firestone's prime though. 

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, Tony-OH said:

Over last 30 games the Orioles are 9-21(.300) and have been outscored 195-133. They only have two wins of more than two runs over this span and only one in a regular 9-inning game (Mancini's walk off three-run homer being the other). 

They've gone from tied for 1st place to 7.5 games back and a half game out of last place.

Starters ERA during this stretch

Dylan Bundy        4.14 in 6 starts
Wade Miley          5.56 in 7 starts
Kevin Gausman   6.32 in 6 starts
Chris Tillman        9.59 in 6 starts
Alec Asher           9.87 in 4 starts
Ubaldo Jimenez 11.00 in 2 starts

Relievers ERA
Darren O'day      2.00 in 9 games with 17 Ks in 9 innings before going on DL
Mychal Givens    3.21 in 13 games over 14 innings. 1 blown save
Brad Brach          3.86 with 3 saves and two blown saves that started this run.
Stefan Crichton   7.56 in 4 games over 8.1 IP
Donnie Hart         8.10 in  8 games, 6.2 IP, .370 BAVG

Hitters slash lines
Jonathan Schoop  .269/.331/.504/.835
Mark Trumbo         .283/.358/.467/.825
Chris Davis            .213/.286/.528/.813
Trey Mancini          .274/.346/.466/.811
Caleb Joseph        .281/.339/.456/.795
Wellington Castillo .270/.303/.413/.716
Adam Jones          .250/.271/.442/.713
Seth Smith            .229/.293/.373/.667
Manny Machado   .210/.259/.390/.649
JJ Hardy               .214/.243/.330/.573

With four hitters OPSing over .800 the hitting hasn't been too bad overall despite Manny's struggles and the hole in the lineup that is known as the Hardy hole. The main bullpen members have been decent. All of Brach's runs given up over this span were in those two blown saves that started this slide.

Quite simply, you can't run out the worse starting rotation in baseball and expect to win. When your best starter has a 4.14 ERA in the last month, things have gone real, real bad.

Just go down and get some depth from AAA right?

Norfolk Tides starters ERA
Mike Wright      4.19 in 10 starts
Tyler Wilson     4.78 in 7 starts
Jayson Aquino 5.08 in 8 starts
Jordan Kipper  5.59 in 7 starts
Chris Lee         6.28 in 12 starts
Gabriel Ynoa   6.93 in 9 starts

In other words, the two guys who have already failed as big league starters are the best two current options.

It's going to be a long summer in Baltimore.

 

 

 

Thanks for all that data.   Although the total output of the offense hasn't been terrible 4.43 R/G, the team has scored 3 or less 17 times in those 30 games, including 14 of the last 20.   We would have lost a lot of those games anyway because of the pitching, but the offense isn't exactly operating on all cylinders, either.   

I still refuse to concede, on June 14, that we're doomed to a losing, non-contending season.     Things turned on a dime on May 10, so there's no saying it couldn't turn on a dime again, or at least, turn partway.    I'm not saying it's likely, just saying that stranger things have happened.    The 2014 Orioles were 32-31 after 63 games, exactly one game ahead of where this team is now.   Granted, that team hadn't had the prolonged losing streak that this one has had, but my point is, it's an unpredictable game.    

[TouchemAll]

1 hour ago, Can_of_corn said:

I think we are going to hear how some players had down years and how injuries hurt the team and how they have confidence in the core going forward.

That is assuming of course that at some point the bleeding stops and they settle in as an ordinary, not very good team.

Agree they won't blow it up, although I think that's the right path, this group had their high water mark, and If they would blow it up I think Buck exits stage right. 

I still think DD is out here either way.

[maybenxtyr]

When I saw the thread title I thought it was going to be a Yo Momma jokes type of thing.

 

How bad are the Orioles??? So bad, I would rather see the Clinton and Trump debates at 8. Giggity

[Tony-OH]

8 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Thanks for all that data.   Although the total output of the offense hasn't been terrible 4.43 R/G, the team has scored 3 or less 17 times in those 30 games, including 14 of the last 20.   We would have lost a lot of those games anyway because of the pitching, but the offense isn't exactly operating on all cylinders, either.   

I still refuse to concede, on June 14, that we're doomed to a losing, non-contending season.     Things turned on a dime on May 10, so there's no saying it couldn't turn on a dime again, or at least, turn partway.    I'm not saying it's likely, just saying that stranger things have happened.    The 2014 Orioles were 32-31 after 63 games, exactly one game ahead of where this team is now.   Granted, that team hadn't had the prolonged losing streak that this one has had, but my point is, it's an unpredictable game.    

Here's the big difference between that team and this 2017 squad. On June 10, 2014, the team was 32-31. However, he's the starter's ERAs on that date:

Starters Jun 10, 2014 ERA

Chris Tillman 4.91 in 14 starts (2.42 in 20 starts afterwards)
Wein Yin Chen 4.13 ERA in 12 starts (3.18 in 19 starts afterwards)
Bud Norris 3.94 in 12 starts (3.40 in 16 starts afterwards)
Miguel Gonzalez 4.17 in 11 starts (2.68 in 16 starts afterwards)
Ubaldo Jimenez 5.01 in 13 starts (Replaced by Gausman and he pitched to a 3.29 ERA in 19 starts)

So basically the rotation was much better at that point an they went on to collectively pitch as well as any Orioles starting staff since the 80s.  So unless you see our current collection of arms pitching anyway close to the way the 2014 staff did from here on out, it's almost apples to oranges.

I can't imagine our starters continuing to pitch this poorly the rest of the season, but even if they go back to their career norms, and the hitters become more consistent, this team will struggle to see .500 again this year.

 

[Uli2001]

Thanks for the rundown, it basically confirms with we know, the offense and the bullpen have disappointed but haven't been terrible, it's the starting pitching. 

It figures that starting pitching, who has been this current administration's achilles heel for so long, would be eventually its downfall. The failure in developing or acquiring effective starters, be it by trade or FA, has caught up with them. It's hard to acknowledge, but the pundits were right this year about that (finally).

[Nevermore]

1 hour ago, birdwatcher55 said:

I"m of the opinion a rebuild would only take 2 years with the right moves by management. We have a lot of quality to offer up at deadline. The question is who will be that management?

This assumes the right moves by management.  With Duquette as our gm  this is a very tenuous assumption 

 

[Uli2001]

18 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Here's the big difference between that team and this 2017 squad. On June 10, 2014, the team was 32-31. However, he's the starter's ERAs on that date:

Starters Jun 10, 2014 ERA

Chris Tillman 4.91 in 14 starts (2.42 in 20 starts afterwards)
Wein Yin Chen 4.13 ERA in 12 starts (3.18 in 19 starts afterwards)
Bud Norris 3.94 in 12 starts (3.40 in 16 starts afterwards)
Miguel Gonzalez 4.17 in 11 starts (2.68 in 16 starts afterwards)
Ubaldo Jimenez 5.01 in 13 starts (Replaced by Gausman and he pitched to a 3.29 ERA in 19 starts)

So basically the rotation was much better at that point an they went on to collectively pitch as well as any Orioles starting staff since the 80s.  So unless you see our current collection of arms pitching anyway close to the way the 2014 staff did from here on out, it's almost apples to oranges.

I can't imagine our starters continuing to pitch this poorly the rest of the season, but even if they go back to their career norms, and the hitters become more consistent, this team will struggle to see .500 again this year.

 

Could you or someone recap how the Orioles lost 3/5 of the 2014 rotation while managing to keep Jimenez?

[interloper]

37 minutes ago, Uli2001 said:

Could you or someone recap how the Orioles lost 3/5 of the 2014 rotation while managing to keep Jimenez?

Chen got too expensive/injured.

Tillman got injured.

Gonzo got bad.

Norris got bad.

[Going Underground]

Some more numbers:

 

With their one-run output Tuesday, the Orioles have scored 47 runs in 12 games this month, an average of 3.9 per game that’s down from their season mark of 4.4 and rates as the second-worst average production in the American League this month.

They’re batting .246 with a .726 OPS in June, both 12th-best in the AL and not befitting an offense with as much invested in it as the Orioles have, even if nearly every June lineup has been missing one key cog or another.

 

http://www.baltimoresun.com/sports/orioles/blog/bal-orioles-run-production-deficiencies-being-overshadowed-by-pitching-in-june-swoon-20170614-story.html?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

[sportsfan8703]

1 hour ago, Tony-OH said:

Here's the big difference between that team and this 2017 squad. On June 10, 2014, the team was 32-31. However, he's the starter's ERAs on that date:

Starters Jun 10, 2014 ERA

Chris Tillman 4.91 in 14 starts (2.42 in 20 starts afterwards)
Wein Yin Chen 4.13 ERA in 12 starts (3.18 in 19 starts afterwards)
Bud Norris 3.94 in 12 starts (3.40 in 16 starts afterwards)
Miguel Gonzalez 4.17 in 11 starts (2.68 in 16 starts afterwards)
Ubaldo Jimenez 5.01 in 13 starts (Replaced by Gausman and he pitched to a 3.29 ERA in 19 starts)

So basically the rotation was much better at that point an they went on to collectively pitch as well as any Orioles starting staff since the 80s.  So unless you see our current collection of arms pitching anyway close to the way the 2014 staff did from here on out, it's almost apples to oranges.

I can't imagine our starters continuing to pitch this poorly the rest of the season, but even if they go back to their career norms, and the hitters become more consistent, this team will struggle to see .500 again this year.

 

We really have to trade our back end relievers and try and get SP back.  We have no SP of our own in the minors.  Trade our entire pen away for as much SP as you can get.  Then lets find out who is ready for the pen out of Scott, Liranzo, Yacabonis, Chricton, Meisenger, Garcia, Long.  

[eddie83]

4 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

They have the full Phillies package going on.

1. Limited trade value on current roster
2. Weak farm system with a lack of impact players
3. Unmovable contracts tying up payroll

Other than Davis what money is tied up long term? One contract kills the team?

[Can_of_corn]

8 minutes ago, eddie83 said:

Other than Davis what money is tied up long term? One contract kills the team?

If you are blowing things up do you want even two years of Trumbo and O'Day?

 

[eddie83]

3 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

If you are blowing things up do you want even two years of Trumbo and O'Day?

 

They aren't good deals on non contending teams but are hardly back breaking.