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Update on who the Rays might pick

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SevisonJN Major Leaguer Cup of Coffee

SevisonJN

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I do not think the O's can justify taking Matusz or Crow over Gordon Beckham... everyone has Beckham around 7th or 8th in this draft.... how much difference can there be in rated ceiling between 4th and 7th or 8th?

Even if you have the pitchers rated slightly higher, this should be off-set by the historical data which shows college bats to be widely more successful than anything else (college pitchers, hs bats, hs pitchers).

Why is it that you think the Orioles can not justify taking the best pitcher in the draft (Crow or Matusz) for the second best shortstop in the draft. I like Gordon Beckham's enthusiasm, but I do not think he will be an stud. Think Khalil Greene. If a 5-tool guy like Tim Beckham is there then great take him. I think Justin Smoak will be a safe pick and it sounds like KC will go with Hosmer from what I am hearing on many insider articles. I think we can land the 5th, 6th, or 7th best first baseman in the draft, but we could also land the 14th, 15th or 16th best pitcher. I want the Orioles to take the guy they think has the best chance to play at a high level in the ML with pick #4. I would rather they draft Crow than Matusz, but I am not an advanced scout!

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Stotle Hangout Grand Counsel

Stotle

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I think "confidence" is the wrong word to use when discussing Matusz working backwards. He has no problem throwing his fastball. It's a simple case of his ability to throw two fringe-above-average pitches (curve aned change) and command them extremely well. He has been so good with those pitches that it has made sense for him to work off them.

When Zito was among the best, he worked off of his curve quite often -- so did Mark Mulder.

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hoosiers Hangout Grand Counsel

hoosiers

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That Posey number is ridiculous.

He shouldn't get much more than Wieters. He's not the prospect Wieters was, but there may be some inflation here. The upper range of what Posey should get is between $5.5M and $6.75M.

Now, of course, the NYY need to build around a catcher with Posada getting up there, so maybe they put a high price tag in his agent's ear. Who knows.

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baltimoriole Major Leaguer Cup of Coffee

baltimoriole

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If the O's draft Matusz then they absolutely have to pony up for Teixeira. No if, ands, or buts about it.

This selection just doesn't pass the smell test with me. I mean, remember back in 02 the O's wanted the toolsey high school SS, but he went 1st to the Rays, then they should have taken the power hitting 1st baseman, Fielder, but went with the pitcher instead. I want the o's to distance themselves from ever getting an Adam Loewen type pitcher again. I'm afraid that this will happen all over again.

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LookinUp Hangout Grand Counsel

LookinUp

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If the O's draft Matusz then they absolutely have to pony up for Teixeira. No if, ands, or buts about it.

This selection just doesn't pass the smell test with me. I mean, remember back in 02 the O's wanted the toolsey high school SS, but he went 1st to the Rays, then they should have taken the power hitting 1st baseman, Fielder, but went with the pitcher instead. I want the o's to distance themselves from ever getting an Adam Loewen type pitcher again. I'm afraid that this will happen all over again.

Your logic isn't bad but Matusz and Loewen are not comparable pitchers. Loewen is all upside. Matusz already commands three plus pitches. Advantage Matusz.

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Pheasants Major Leaguer Cup of Coffee

Pheasants

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"Best pitcher in the draft" doesn't mean much to me when the consensus seems to be that this is a great year for 1B and a weaker year for pitchers. Matusz is apparently not projected to be an ace; therefore he shouldn't be so highly ranked unless someone is desperate for pitching. If the third or fourth best power-hitter or second-best shortstop is regarded as a high impact player, then it shouldn't matter that they are not number one. If the draft was as deep in pitchers like Price as it is in hitters like Alvarez and Smoak, would Matusz even be considered top 10?

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Mackus Hangout Grand Counsel

Mackus

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Forget GBeck...How can you justify either of them over Smoak?
Easy.

Jordan thinks GBeck's skillset will translate to MLB better than Smoak, and therefore Beckham will be the better pro. Or Jordan thinks Matusz will be the better pro. Or Crow.

I don't have any idea what Jordan thinks, but I do know that he's gonna take the guy that he thinks is gonna be the best pro player of everyone available at #4. He's gonna pick the guy who's value (summation of highest upside times chance of reaching that upside plus mid-level and those odds and so on) is the highest and that value will certainly include some weighting for current organizational need.

Whoever Jordan deems the best prospect for us is gonna be the pick.

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Hank Scorpio Hangout Grand Counsel

Hank Scorpio

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Easy.

Jordan thinks GBeck's skillset will translate to MLB better than Smoak, and therefore Beckham will be the better pro. Or Jordan thinks Matusz will be the better pro. Or Crow.

I don't have any idea what Jordan thinks, but I do know that he's gonna take the guy that he thinks is gonna be the best pro player of everyone available at #4. He's gonna pick the guy who's value (summation of highest upside times chance of reaching that upside plus mid-level and those odds and so on) is the highest and that value will certainly include some weighting for current organizational need.

Whoever Jordan deems the best prospect for us is gonna be the pick.

This is exactly right.

Just because Keith Law or Jim Callis or Kevin Goldstein thinks Gordon Beckham is the better prospect doesn't necessarily mean he is.

Whomever we pick will be the best player on our board. That is all you can ask for if you have confidence in your scouting director, IMO.

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erb8472 Hangout Veteran Council

erb8472

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That is all you can ask for if you have confidence in your scouting director, IMO.

You are exactly right, and none of us have any reason to question Jordan's ability to draft.

P.S. - Congrats on the Oriole Bird pip.

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JTrea81 Hangout Grand Counsel

JTrea81

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You are exactly right, and none of us have any reason to question Jordan's ability to draft.

Why not? Besides Wieters, what impact hitter has he drafted? The guy has shown a knack to finding good pitching, but besides Wieters I don't think you can say he's found a stud position prospect. Snyder, Rowell and Adams have all been disappointments. None of them were worth the slot they were taken at. Wieters was a sure thing, and Smoak is pretty close to being the same. Matsuz has some question marks and the Orioles do not have a good history of picking pitchers in the first round and first round pitchers taken early have rarely found success.

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