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Have you given up on the Orioles being a playoff contender in 2017?


Frobby

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There was a thread about whether we should sell, right after the Yankee sweep.

I looked at the next 23 games, all vs teams that (at the time) either had losing records or were no more than 2 games over .500, including teams that were just ahead of us for the last wild card.

It was a fairly favorable schedule.   I said that if:

   -- we went 14-9 or better, we would like end the stretch next Wednesday in possession of the second wild card, and several games over .500.   We would be getting Britton back, and it would be hard to say we didn't have a shot.

   -- if we were 11-12 or worse, we would be .500 or worse, and would have not even be able to go .500 vs a fairly mediocre bunch of opponents.  It would be time to sell.

   -- if we went 12-11 or 13-10, we'd be over .500 but wouldn't have been particularly impressive in the 23 game stretch.   I'd have to look at some subjective things to decide how I felt, such as whether the pitching staff was pitching better, Manny was coming out of his slump, we had found someone half decent form the Norfolk shuttle to be the long man or 5th starter, etc.

Well, we are now 7-9 in that stretch.   So none of those options are officially off the table yet.   So I'll wait a bit before I declare us dead.   We are definitely on life support.

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52 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Fine, I'll be the contrarian. 

Yeah, I have.

That doesn't mean I still don't watch as many games as I can and root for these guys.  I want them to win and I'd love to see them get into the playoffs any way they can.  

Realistically, the pitching isn't there.  The offense still relies on the homer too much to score.  Bunch of low OBP guys swinging from their heels, mostly.  Just got shut out tonight.  Tomorrow they can score 10 runs and then back to getting shut out on Friday.  It's an all or nothing approach that just doesn't seem to be built for high performance over an extended stretch of time.   As I said, they'll bust out for a game and then go right back into their shell the next.

The bullpen, once elite, just doesn't seem to be as much of a sure thing.  O'Day is older, breaking down, but still mostly effective.  Givens is solid.  Brach has stepped up and done a good job.  The rest?  Meh.  It'll look different when Britton comes back for sure but as it stands right now I don't think blown saves are a particular problem for us.  

The defense, once air tight, isn't as good either. 

When everything clicks for this team, it's great to see.  I just don't see enough games in the future where it's performing on all cylinders....those rare starts where Ubaldo and Miley dazzle?  Can't count on them.  Can't count on Tillman anymore, which is sad.  

Hey, I'd love to be wrong.  But just watching this team day in and day out, I don't see it.  

 

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I agree with everything Milligan said. He is absolutely right. The only thing he didn't mention was that the Showalter's resume shows that he is not a manager that can get a team to the World Series.

I'm confused by the posters who talk about the O's being in contention. Contention for what?  A wild card? People say that if a team can get to the playoffs anything can happen. That may be true in the NFL or college basketball where you play a team once and the winner moves on the next round. That's not the case in baseball. Do any of you really think that if the O's won a wildcard game that they could then beat Houston, Cleveland, Boston or New York in a series? I'm suddenly thinking about that Aerosmith song.

Making the playoffs with this seriously flawed team might make some people happy, but I say it has zero chance of even making the WS, let alone winning it. The O's have made the playoffs over the last few years. It hasn't advanced to the WS, and while other teams have been getting better, the Orioles have been getting worse.

I'll still watch them, but I also watched them throughout those losing seasons. Watching those teams convinced me that they weren't good, and I feel the same way about the current team. I'm for trying to rebuild the team even if they are in the lead for the wildcard spots.

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18 minutes ago, panick said:

I agree with everything Milligan said. He is absolutely right. The only thing he didn't mention was that the Showalter's resume shows that he is not a manager that can get a team to the World Series.

Thanks, but I don't think a manager, say someone like Joe Girardi or a different WS proven manager, could get this team there.  I love Buck but he's only got so much to work with.  

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Didn't like this team in ST, don't like it now. We will of course trade away more minor league talent to bring in yet more washed up veterans. Perhaps they beat all odds and finish .500. People talk about the O's improving but the real contenders will add some substantial pieces at the trade deadline further distancing themselves from the imposters like the O's.

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I love my O's, but I'm a realist. Will we be a CONTENDOR for a wild card spot? Yes. Do I believe we have a realistic chance of getting to or winning the World Series? No, I do not. We have some kind of serious problem in developing players, especially pitching. Until we can solve that, whatever it is, we are not going to build strong teams. You need the young, cheap, good players to contend. You cannot afford to buy the players.

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11 hours ago, Barnaby Graves said:

I don't know how you define "giving up" but I'm willing to concede that things don't look good.  It's not about raw wins and losses but the SP and lack of depth.  We have a #3 starter a, a #4 starter, and three complete liabilities that we can't replace because we have nothing to replace them with.

So at 4.5 back I'm not "giving up" but I'm also not expecting much.

This is pretty much my take, but honest question - I assume you have Bundy as the #3, who is the #4?  

I won't give up because you never know what will happen in baseball.  But you can't expect a team with our current starting rotation to compete.  As of now I'd prefer to be sellers, but I also am willing to wait until the ASB to see if Gausman and Tillman can get it together.  Miley is Miley, and the fact that Ubaldo is still starting games for us just blows my mind.

I will say that I definitely don't want us to give up any decent minor league talent for mediocre major league talent.  

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53 minutes ago, glenn__davis said:

This is pretty much my take, but honest question - I assume you have Bundy as the #3, who is the #4?  

I won't give up because you never know what will happen in baseball.  But you can't expect a team with our current starting rotation to compete.  As of now I'd prefer to be sellers, but I also am willing to wait until the ASB to see if Gausman and Tillman can get it together.  Miley is Miley, and the fact that Ubaldo is still starting games for us just blows my mind.

I will say that I definitely don't want us to give up any decent minor league talent for mediocre major league talent.  

I'm just hoping that Jimenez is the same Jimenez as he was the last month and a half of the season last year (minus the last day). He's shown before that he can go on those unexpected runs of competent to dominant pitching, maybe he'll surprise us again this year.

Even so, its doubtful that 2 of Tillman, Miley and Jimenez (I'm fully expecting a Gausman turn around) can get it together to propel the team to the playoffs, and I'm very nervous about a shortsighted trade that would involve parting with one of the few position prospects (Hays, Mullins, Mountcastle, Sisco) that have begun to give the farm system a glimmer of respectability. 

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3 hours ago, Bahama O's Fan said:

I love my O's, but I'm a realist. Will we be a CONTENDOR for a wild card spot? Yes. Do I believe we have a realistic chance of getting to or winning the World Series? No, I do not. We have some kind of serious problem in developing players, especially pitching. Until we can solve that, whatever it is, we are not going to build strong teams. You need the young, cheap, good players to contend. You cannot afford to buy the players.

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