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Have you given up on the Orioles being a playoff contender in 2017?


Frobby

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In a word, yes.  This season they far more resemble the 2015 team than the '12, '13, '14, or '16 teams.  I just can't see the pitching stabilizing enough to make them serious playoff contenders.  Bundy needs to be limited in the 2nd half, Gausman is questionable, Tillman is damaged good, and Ubaldo and Miley.....well.....are Ubaldo and Miley.  Even if Britton and O'Day return and the bullpen goes back into lockdown mode, I don't think it's enough.  Not this year.  And the Machado situation (broken record alert) looms large.  You've either got to hold on to him through the rest of the season and hope for a WS run, or move him in July so that the acquiring team gets him for at least two pennant races, maximizing his value.  They have another 2-4 weeks to decide, but at this point, I've seen what I need to see.

Move Manny and try and retool on the fly, with the idea to compete next year, and be serious contenders again in 2019.

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I haven't given up but in the next few weeks I'm watching O'Day and Britton as much as Tillman and Gausman.

If we make the playoffs, our bullpen is our #1 starter.  It is baby steps but O'Day's had three good outings.  I know his body won't let him pitch at an All-Star level a full season anymore, but I haven't given up on him being excellent for a little while.  Much hinges on whether that little while is a few weeks or a few months.

Similarly, the top of our "rotation" is dead without the real Britton.  But if real Britton is back, we could see a CC Sabathia in Milwaukee workload down the stretch.

As awful as the starters have been this year, I believe the Orioles in the wildcard game are a good test case for a full bullpen game.  Bundy or Gausman can let it fly for like 12 batters faced, but I'd hope for 6+ innings out of the main four.

We're not going to get an Andrew Miller this year because whatever trade assets we utilize will have to be expended on rotation fodder, but those guys jobs are to get us to 85 wins, not to get playoff outs in October.  I wouldn't be surprised to see us go for two Feldman types, and the game in July is going to be how inexpensively can Dan finesse them.  It's kind of a niche market because we stand to be moderately helped by a slew of guys that "good" teams don't want.

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The wild cards look up for grabs. The division winners, I think will be Red Sox,Indians and Astros. The WC teams are all over the place. Yankees are getting tons of injuries. Rays have had their fair share. Twins pitching looks pretty bad. Royals are supposed to sell at the deadline. The Rangers might be getting healthy and a team to watch. Mariners look at best average. Injuries will probably dictate who gets into the WC. 

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3 minutes ago, Going Underground said:

The wild cards look up for grabs. The division winners, I think will be Red Sox,Indians and Astros. The WC teams are all over the place. Yankees are getting tons of injuries. Rays have had their fair share. Twins pitching looks pretty bad. Royals are supposed to sell at the deadline. The Rangers might be getting healthy and a team to watch. Mariners look at best average. Injuries will probably dictate who gets into the WC. 

If the Cardinals (great hacking franchise that they are) are not folding, neither are we!

http://www.stltoday.com/sports/baseball/professional/shock-therapy-continues-as-cardinals-demote-diaz/article_21b36b0b-7f67-505d-971c-d5416915ec45.html

 

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Pretty much.

According to Fangraphs, the Orioles are the 21st best offensive team, the 24th best defensive team, and the 27th best pitching team in MLB. That doesn't seem like a recipe for success to me without a drastic turnaround. The team has no real strengths right now, and is loaded with weaknesses.

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13 hours ago, Roy Firestone said:

I interviewed his father!

That's pretty impressive since Cobb's father, William Cobb, was fatally shot by his wife in 1905 (a few weeks before Ty's first ML game).  :confused: 

Must have been an interesting interview. Mostly about local Georgia politics, I would guess. Did you ask him about the demise of the American League Orioles a couple of years earlier? 

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15 hours ago, Roy Firestone said:

I interviewed his father!

Did he trust his wife when you did? 

 He broke into major league baseball with the Tigers in August 1905, just three weeks after his mother, Amanda Cobb, had been arrested on charges of voluntary manslaughter in the shooting death of Cobb's father, William Herschel Cobb.

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I'm not giving up, per se, but I have changed my expectations.  The pitching isn't there and it isn't going to be.  If we contend, I'll enjoy it, but I'm no longer expecting we will this season...  The trade deadline should provide some interest!

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I don't see how people can say we can make the second wild card, but have no chance at the WS. Let's say we play the Yankees in a 1 game WC game, you don't think we can beat the Yanks in one game? We've done that a number of times this season. Let's say we do and then face the Indians in a 7 game series. You don't think we can squeak out 4 wins in 7 tries against Cleveland? Next thing you know we are in the ALCS. Just get in....who knows what can happen once you do. 

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10 hours ago, glenn__davis said:

This is pretty much my take, but honest question - I assume you have Bundy as the #3, who is the #4? 

Miley, on the basis that he's a passable back-end starter.  Gausman, Jimenez are disasters, I might be too strong calling Asher a total liability though.  So, two #4 starters.

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9 hours ago, weams said:

Cardinals Pythagorean W-L: 38-39

Orioles Pythagorean W-L: 32-45

We are not for real, folks.

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