Top Prospect showdown Austin Hays vs Ryan Mountcastle

[Luke-OH]

Austin Hays has been killing AA pitching since his promotion and has garnered a lot of attention.  He's showing much more power than expected while still avoiding strikeouts at a high rate.  That combined with his ability to at least play an average CF make him an exciting prospect.  Don't get me wrong, I'm a big fan, he's got a quick bat that generates power.  That being said, I will now make the argument that Ryan Mountcastle is the better prospect.

This is all about projection, if you look at Austin Hays, you see a grown man, he's pretty much a finished product from a physical standpoint.  He has hit 39 extra base hits this year including an excellent 19 home runs.

Now look at Ryan Mountcastle, he is a year and a half younger than Hays.  He is listed at 2" taller, but looks taller than that (or Hays is shorter than listed).  He still looks like a kid, physically he has room to add 20+ pounds of good weight.  He has hit 44 extra base hits with 14 home runs.  His swing is more tailored for power and loft than Hays although he is currently not as strong.

Now I'm NOT comparing Mountcastle to Manny Machado as a prospect!!! Manny had much better discipline numbers than Mountcastle does and provides a huge amount more defensive value, also Machado was in the majors age Mountcastle's age.  The comparison I'm making is ONLY of their physical builds and power potential.

This is Manny at Moustcastle's age, they have similar builds. Manny hit 51 doubles and 14 home runs this season.

This is Manny last year, he has filled out, especially his lower half. This season he hit 40 doubles and 37 home runs.

The point I'm making here is I think Mountcastle has big power potential and more upside with the bat than Hays, the kind of power bat that would easily play in LF if Mountcastle has to move out of the infield.  Those doubles Mountcastle is hitting this year are going to get out in the future.  

[Can_of_corn]

Hard for me to rate someone who might have no defensive value over someone who can play center field at an acceptable level.  How many left fielders can a team have?

[Luke-OH]

5 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Hard for me to rate someone who might have no defensive value over someone who can play center field at an acceptable level.  How many left fielders can a team have?

I'm going to take a deeper drive to look at his defense soon, but I haven't seen anything yet that tells me he can't play 2B, I'm cautiously optimistic. He's not a butcher at all at SS, he just doesn't have the arm, I feel like people get those things mixed up.

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, phillyOs119 said:

I'm going to take a deeper drive to look at his defense soon, but I haven't seen anything yet that tells me he can't play 2B, I'm cautiously optimistic. He's not a butcher at all at SS, he just doesn't have the arm, I feel like people get those things mixed up.

If he can play second at an average or even slightly below average level I will revisit.  O's are probably going to need a second baseman in a couple years.

[Luke-OH]

Just now, RZNJ said:

Good stuff.  Voted Hays but you make good arguments.   I went safe.  

Thanks, I understand picking Hays, it's very close in my mind, neck and neck.  

[Otter]

Good post, and interesting question.  I agree that arm strength is Mountcastle's biggest question mark, but I think we forget that it's still possible for him to improve his arm strength.  He is young with a projectable body, and if he was a pitching prospect we'd all be talking about how much velocity he could potentially add as he physically matures.  I haven't read anything about it, but I'd be surprised if the organization doesn't have him doing long toss programs, weighted balls, bands, etc. to improve his arm strength.  He'll never have a Manny arm, but he could be serviceable with some improvement.  On the other hand, if his arm stays weak he'll be yet another LF/1B/DH type.  Still, I like the upside with Mountcastle and I vote for him.

[Luke-OH]

17 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

I doubt is arm will ever be playable at SS but lots of guys with weaker arms are put at 2B so that would seem like a natural fit.     There's only one problem.   His range.   How is it?    The reason I ask is because his range factor at SS is historically bad when compared to other Orioles who have played SS in the minor leagues.   Here are career minor league range factors at SS in the minors.

Schoop -   4.91 in 215 games started

Machado -  4.63 in 202 games started

Flaherty -  4.70 in 102 games started

Adrian Marin -  4.50 in 400 games started

Mountcastle  -   3.83 in 172 games started (and it's not getting better as his 3.50 for this season attests)

 

Now range factor might not be a great stat but when I see four other players and 3 (Schoop/Flaherty/Marin) who weren't noted as having anything other than average range at best at SS, it makes me wonder when I see the low numbers on Mountcastle.     Mountcastle has been described as athletic.    My instincts tell me that he's coordinated and can make the routine plays but he really just doesn't have the quickness to player middle infield, nor the arm for the left side of the infield.    I'm thinking LF or 1B is his final destination.

This is good research, but one thing to remember about Range Factor, all it measures is Assists + Putouts divided by either games or 9 innings played at the position.  So for example, a ball Mountcastle ranged to get and then threw accurately to first but too weakly to get the runner would not count as a put out or assist obviously, but would show his ability to get to balls.  This is a pretty normal occurrence, he doesn't commit a ton of errors, his throws are just too late to get the runner, leading to infield singles.

[MachoMachadoMan]

The Hays/Mountcastle argument comes down to upside vs. floor. As a college draft pick, Hays entered the system a more finished product. Mountcastle was a talented high schooler who tremendous batspeed, but lots of development questions. High school players, except for those taken in the Top 10, are expected to have a greater upside. I think Mountcastle's long-term, middle of the order power bat still has greater upside than Hays, who I'm confident will be a productive major leaguer even if he's not a perennial all-star candidate. 

Does anyone have ML comps for each player as a ceiling/floor?

[Luke-OH]

Pablo Sandoval had probably the most similar numbers in recent history at a similar age at the A+ level.  Combination of >.200 ISO, >5% BB rate, and > 20% k rate. Sandoval had similar but worse numbers than Mountcastle at age 20 and then had similar but better numbers than Mountcastle repeating A+ at age 21.

Hank Conger and Tommy Joseph are other statistical comps.

 

This is not a scouting comparison, just a statistical one.

[Frobby]

I voted for Hays because of Mountcastle's defensive limitations.    If I was purely ranking hitters, I'd give Mountcastle the slight edge.  

[MDtransplant757]

I voted for Hays. He can be a plus defender in RF, but he'd probably be ok at CF. Dude has a cannon for an arm. 

[Legend_Of_Joey]

4 minutes ago, MDtransplant757 said:

I voted for Hays. He can be a plus defender in RF, but he'd probably be ok at CF. Dude has a cannon for an arm. 

He's been showing some very good skills in Bowie in center, making several highlight catches.

[MDtransplant757]

Just now, Legend_Of_Joey said:

He's been showing some very good skills in Bowie in center, making several highlight catches.

As I don't get to see Baysox games in person, who do you think is the better CFer between Hays and Mullins? 

[Legend_Of_Joey]

Just now, MDtransplant757 said:

As I don't get to see Baysox games in person, who do you think is the better CFer between Hays and Mullins? 

I'm not sure yet. By the time I was able to watch a lot of games, Mullins was out with his hamstring issues. Hays has made some nice catches, but Mullins has the speed to close in on the balls a bit easier and not have to be on Sportscenter. I honestly think they can't go wrong with a rotation of them.

[MDtransplant757]

Just now, Legend_Of_Joey said:

I'm not sure yet. By the time I was able to watch a lot of games, Mullins was out with his hamstring issues. Hays has made some nice catches, but Mullins has the speed to close in on the balls a bit easier and not have to be on Sportscenter. I honestly think they can't go wrong with a rotation of them.

Ok. How do you like Mullins in RF?