The problem with DD's "underperforming" logic

[FanSince88]

I keep hearing DD say how we're bound to contend in the 2nd half because too many players are underperforming and by golly they are just "due" to heat up.  

Well what if those players just aren't very good anymore?  Ever consider that, Dan?  

What if Gausman is destined for a BP role because he can't or won't add a legitimate secondary pitch?  

What if Trumbo is never going to have a year even approaching his outlier year of 2016?

What if Manny is just an elite defender who is a 3 true outcomes guy at the plate for the rest of his career?  

What if Tillman and Hardy's careers are over? 

What if AJ's best days are behind him?  

What if CD is slowly going to decline for the rest of his career, as all ML teams not named The Orioles seemed to think a couple of years ago? 

What if Britton is never the same again (it's not like there have ever been closers who dominate for a couple years and then totally fall off, have there Dan?)?  

I know this might stun DD, but a few thousand years this Greek guy named said "You never step in the same river twice."  You mean there's this thing called "change," and players' performance sometimes declines over the course of there careers?  I never could have believed it, yet pick up any random baseball card, Dan, and you might see what I'm talking about.  There's always a final year on that card, and the numbers usually aren't pretty.  

[Frobby]

There is no upside for Dan or the team in him publicly stating that he doesn't expect the team to play any better.      

[LC_O's_87]

When you are the GM of a team that hoped to compete, made the playoffs last year and has been in the postseason 3 of the last 5 years, it's probably not a good thing for morale to suggest the team will sell, one month before the deadline.

Duquette has never been one to float his personal thoughts, strategies or timelines in the media.  Say whatever you will about DD, but the guy is a realist, if they continue to go backwards he will sell what he can.

[sportsfan8703]

3 minutes ago, Frobby said:

There is no upside for Dan or the team in him publicly stating that he doesn't expect the team to play any better.      

We're not going to hear any talk towards the future until after July 31st.  Maybe Aug 31st.  Eventually you'll hear Buck start talking about going on his "nugget" search.  

[Tx Oriole]

1 hour ago, FanSince88 said:

I keep hearing DD say how we're bound to contend in the 2nd half because too many players are underperforming and by golly they are just "due" to heat up.  

Well what if those players just aren't very good anymore?  Ever consider that, Dan?  

What if Gausman is destined for a BP role because he can't or won't add a legitimate secondary pitch?  

What if Trumbo is never going to have a year even approaching his outlier year of 2016?

What if Manny is just an elite defender who is a 3 true outcomes guy at the plate for the rest of his career?  

What if Tillman and Hardy's careers are over? 

What if AJ's best days are behind him?  

What if CD is slowly going to decline for the rest of his career, as all ML teams not named The Orioles seemed to think a couple of years ago? 

What if Britton is never the same again (it's not like there have ever been closers who dominate for a couple years and then totally fall off, have there Dan?)?  

I know this might stun DD, but a few thousand years this Greek guy named said "You never step in the same river twice."  You mean there's this thing called "change," and players' performance sometimes declines over the course of there careers?  I never could have believed it, yet pick up any random baseball card, Dan, and you might see what I'm talking about.  There's always a final year on that card, and the numbers usually aren't pretty.  

What if they do turn it around? Just playing devils advocate with you. I just can't be against the O's even if it's looking me right in the eyes they're a bad team. Even knowing it would be better in the long run if Angelos and Dan would sell. 

[DirtyBird]

If you are looking to trade players, you are better suited to speak of their upside and how you'd like to have them around than saying they are done and can't wait to dump them.

[Aristotelian]

It is empirically true that the same core group has been one of the best teams in baseball the last 5 years. It looked like more of the same into May but we have had two awful awful months. They had down years in 2013 and 2015, these things happen. Certainly DD did some bad moves. I fully expect him to have one last hurrah in 2018. You are not going to see a massive rebuild as long as DD is in charge. 

If we have another bad start in '18, then DD gets fired and Manny is traded in July. I wonder who Peter has on speed dial for that scenario.

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

31 minutes ago, DirtyBird said:

If you are looking to trade players, you are better suited to speak of their upside and how you'd like to have them around than saying they are done and can't wait to dump them.

This.  If you're selling your car, you can't complain how it is a piece of junk and then ask top dollar.  Have to wait and see and hope DD doesn't do anything foolish.  

[Justinlstn]

23 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

It is empirically true that the same core group has been one of the best teams in baseball the last 5 years. It looked like more of the same into May but we have had two awful awful months. They had down years in 2013 and 2015, these things happen. Certainly DD did some bad moves. I fully expect him to have one last hurrah in 2018. You are not going to see a massive rebuild as long as DD is in charge. 

If we have another bad start in '18, then DD gets fired and Manny is traded in July. I wonder who Peter has on speed dial for that scenario.

This right here, is what I am worried and dreading will happen. If you are going to trade Manny, the worst you could do is right before he hits FA even if he we even do try and trade him. I could also see the Orioles holding onto him an getting nothing more then a pick out of him. You either move him at the deadline or in the off season. Waiting til the very end is just horrible. I have no trust in DD to fix this team, and I don't see PA endorsing a rebuild either.  

[Aristotelian]

1 minute ago, Justinlstn said:

This right here, is what I am worried and dreading will happen. If you are going to trade Manny, the worst you could do is right before he hits FA even if he we even do try and trade him. I could also see the Orioles holding onto him an getting nothing more then a pick out of him. You either move him at the deadline or in the off season. Waiting til the very end is just horrible. I have no trust in DD to fix this team, and I don't see PA endorsing a rebuild either.  

I am not really advocating this plan either, just recognizing that is what is most likely to happen. That is how Peter has set up Buck and Dan, and that is how DD has set up the roster.

Regarding Manny, it's not like his value is sky high right now. We will still get some team's #1 prospect for him next year.

[Justinlstn]

 

Just now, Aristotelian said:

I am not really advocating this plan either, just recognizing that is what is most likely to happen. That is how Peter has set up Buck and Dan, and that is how DD has set up the roster.

Regarding Manny, it's not like his value is sky high right now. We will still get some team's #1 prospect for him next year.

Oh I know, you are just pointing out what worries me. And I agree Manny's value is not what it was at the beginning of the season. I still think he has potential to bring in a kings ransom.

[Tony-OH]

I think Duquette's hands are tied up by Ownership's desire to go for it despite the mountain of evidence that this team needs to rebuild. As Frobby pointed out, regardless of his true feelings, there is no upside to saying anything but the positive at this point. 

[weams]

1 minute ago, Tony-OH said:

I think Duquette's hands are tied up by Ownership's desire to go for it despite the mountain of evidence that this team needs to rebuild. As Frobby pointed out, regardless of his true feelings, there is no upside to saying anything but the positive at this point. 

I stated that I felt the team should be completely dismantled if they were 7 games under at the break and I stand by that. Sell them all. Go 38 million  Astros. 

[Aristotelian]

6 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

I think Duquette's hands are tied up by Ownership's desire to go for it despite the mountain of evidence that this team needs to rebuild. As Frobby pointed out, regardless of his true feelings, there is no upside to saying anything but the positive at this point. 

He also has no incentive. If the ownership wanted to encourage him to rebuild, the move would be to give him a 10 year contract extension.

[Ohfan67]

19 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

He also has no incentive. If the ownership wanted to encourage him to rebuild, the move would be to give him a 10 year contract extension.

Very true. If DD wants to leave after his contract is up, then there's no incentive for him to think four years down the road.