TT: DD becomes a buyer at the trading deadline (2017)

[Pheasants]

If Britton had completed his three game trifecta on Sunday rather than Monday night, he might have gone somewhere.  I think almost everyone would be mad if DD had given up Britton for less than a starting pitcher and another prospect both in someone's top 10--or even top 5--and from what I read no one was willing to offer than while he had not pitched 2-3 games in a row.

[weams]

1 hour ago, Stotle said:

I am on the Cape right now and everyone I talked to last night (okay, it was only four or five scouts) could not believe Baltimore did not move Britton. One had a previous connection with the Orioles so I discount his choice words some. I guess Baltimore is hoping Britton's value is higher in the off-season.   

If you heard any of the offers, we would love to hear them. 

[weams]

Onley wrote: "It's impossible to find a consistent strain of logic in the Orioles' actions before the trade deadline. As of Sunday morning, Fangraphs pegged the Orioles' chances at making the playoffs at 3 percent, and yet they spent future assets to acquire Hellickson, a pitcher who will be a free agent at season's end. And the Orioles didn't trade Zach Britton, whose trade value may never be higher than it was on Monday afternoon, and never went through the process of weighing the market worth of Manny Machado and Adam Jones. The instant the trade deadline passed, the potential return for Britton, Machado, Jones and others may have dropped by 25 or 30 percent because now they can only impact one pennant race for an interested contending team, rather than two. For the Orioles, this was a lost opportunity to better position the team for 2019 and 2020 and beyond."

Chris Cwik wrote: "The Orioles entered deadline day four games under .500 ... and decided to buy? It wasn't the type of desperation, all-in buy you might expect from a club in their situation, though. Instead, the team made a few of tentative additions that probably won't take them anywhere. Jeremy Hellickson is a fine pitcher, but he can't singlehandedly fix that rotation. And Tim Beckham doesn't exactly inspire a lot of confidence. Baltimore probably should have sold, but it looks like they want to keep their core together for one more run next season. Monday's additions didn't hurt, we guess, but it's tough to see them going on a furious run after a few modest moves."

[Tony-OH]

6 hours ago, Cumberbundy said:

Cleavinger the O's #10 prospect heading into the year. 

http://prospects1500.com/top-50-lists/baltimore-orioles-top-50-prospects-2017/

Sickles had him 8th

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.minorleagueball.com/platform/amp/2017/1/13/14265522/baltimore-orioles-top-20-prospects-for-2017

Something happened to him about halfway through last season. I don't think he's 100% physically. He was a real left-handed relieve prospect, now, unless they can fix him or he can get healthy, he's not.

[weams]

LOSERS

1. Astros

Given his dominant performance against same-side hitters and his relative success in facing batters for the first time in a game instead of the second or third, lefty Francisco Liriano is an intriguing addition to a bullpen battered for a 5.42 ERA in June and July. But on a day when Lance McCullers Jr.—who had been lit for a 9.64 ERA in 18 2/3 innings over his last four starts—went on the DL for the second time this season, this time due to back discomfort, the team's failure to add a starter stands out. Dallas Keuchel, who has also been on the DL twice due to a pinched nerve in his neck, lasted just three innings on July 28 against the Tigers, his first start in the majors since June 2. As if that pair, who combined for just 40 starts last year, didn't generate enough health concerns, the team is relying upon Collin McHugh, who missed the first half of the season due to elbow impingement, and Charlie Morton, who has stayed healthy long enough to make just 96 major league starts since the start of the 2012 season.  

 

https://www.si.com/mlb/2017/08/01/trade-deadline-winners-losers-dodgers-yankees?utm_campaign=si-mlb&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_medium=social&xid=socialflow_twitter_si

[Tony-OH]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

I think the comment that Beckham has "little power" is a bit off base, despite his low doubles total this year.   The guy has a career ISO of .174 (.148 this year).    Average at SS this year is .141.    So, I'd say he has decent and possibly above average power.    Now, if you are saying he doesn't have much power for a guy with a very high strikeout rate, I can't argue with you.

Overall, what I see is a guy who is about a league-average shortstop offensively and defensively (he's currently valued at 1.3 WAR by both BB-ref and Fangraphs), who does have an annoying strikeout habit.    And, I think there's some upside in him.     This is a trade that could turn out very well or very poorly - there are risks on both sides.   

Well, I'm just not very high on Beckam no matter what WAr has him at. I see a guy who swings for the fences and will connect occasionally for a home run, but the extreme lack of doubles tells you about the frequency that he squares ball up (not often). This organization is in no shape to be trading away young starting pitching prospects, regardless of how far they are from the majors.  

I have to imagine the Orioles are the only sub .500 team that added players and traded away good young talent at the deadline. I can understand if the market never developed from Britton due to his injury this year and Duquette didn't move him, and I can understand the Hellickson deal because honestly, we didn't give up anything of value that we were going to use. But what I don't like in the least bit is trading away young starting pitching candidates.

Duquette's trades of E-Rod, Arrieta, Davies, Miranda, and Bridwell have led this organization to be dry of starting pitching prospects in the upper minors to go along with the worse starting rotation in baseball. He and his scouts clearly struggle to identify good veteran starters (Ubaldo, Gallardo, Miley and besides the one good year Norris) and they trade away their young potential starters. That's not a good combination if you ask me. 

[Tony-OH]

12 minutes ago, weams said:

Onley wrote: "It's impossible to find a consistent strain of logic in the Orioles' actions before the trade deadline. As of Sunday morning, Fangraphs pegged the Orioles' chances at making the playoffs at 3 percent, and yet they spent future assets to acquire Hellickson, a pitcher who will be a free agent at season's end. And the Orioles didn't trade Zach Britton, whose trade value may never be higher than it was on Monday afternoon, and never went through the process of weighing the market worth of Manny Machado and Adam Jones. The instant the trade deadline passed, the potential return for Britton, Machado, Jones and others may have dropped by 25 or 30 percent because now they can only impact one pennant race for an interested contending team, rather than two. For the Orioles, this was a lost opportunity to better position the team for 2019 and 2020 and beyond."

Chris Cwik wrote: "The Orioles entered deadline day four games under .500 ... and decided to buy? It wasn't the type of desperation, all-in buy you might expect from a club in their situation, though. Instead, the team made a few of tentative additions that probably won't take them anywhere. Jeremy Hellickson is a fine pitcher, but he can't singlehandedly fix that rotation. And Tim Beckham doesn't exactly inspire a lot of confidence. Baltimore probably should have sold, but it looks like they want to keep their core together for one more run next season. Monday's additions didn't hurt, we guess, but it's tough to see them going on a furious run after a few modest moves."

Both of these are right on the mark. Is the 2017 team a bit better with Hellickson and Beckam, probably, but not enough to jump six teams in the standings. Maybe Beckam gets a new life with the Orioles and solidifies the SS position for a few seasons, but if the Orioles have just doubled down on the core for one last run in 2018.

Say goodbye to Manny after that and look for the team to overpay for Jones so we can have another high priced declining fan favorite. 

[Frobby]

1 minute ago, Tony-OH said:

Well, I'm just not very high on Beckam no matter what WAr has him at. I see a guy who swings for the fences and will connect occasionally for a home run, but the extreme lack of doubles tells you about the frequency that he squares ball up (not often). This organization is in no shape to be trading away your starting pitching prospects, regardless of how far they are from the majors.  

I have to imagine the Orioles are the only sub .500 team that added players and traded away good young talent at the deadline. I can understand if the market never developed from Britton due to his injury this year and Duquette didn't move him, and I can understand the Hellickson deal because honestly, we didn't give up anything of value that we were going to use. But what I don't like in the least bit is trading away young starting pitching candidates.

Duquette's trades of E-Rod, Arrieta, Davies, Miranda, and Bridwell have led this organization to be dry of starting pitching prospects in the upper minors to go along with the worse starting rotation in baseball. He and his scouts clearly struggle to identify good veteran starters (Ubaldo, Gallardo, Miley and besides the one good year Norris) and they trade away their young potential starters. That's not a good combination if you ask me. 

As I posted elsewhere, this trade is more troublesome on a macro level (pattern of trading pitching prospects for rentals/low-mid-impact players) than on a micro level (i.e., just this trade in a vacuum).  

Of course, we traded two pitching prospects for a shortstop in 2010 and it worked out pretty well...

[spiritof66]

1 hour ago, Black Bat said:

What are you talking about?  Saying he had owner approval yet needing owner approval?  That's redundantly redundant.  Makes no sense. 

You have no earthly idea what happened regarding negotiations so please stop trying to cloud my brain with such rubbish.

Duquette reportedly had the owner's approval to "explore trades" for Britton, Brach, O'Day or Smith, but had no authority or approval to agree to any trades. He would be able to complete a deal that he negotiated only if the owner approved it. I'm sorry if you don't understand that distinction, but I don't know a better way to state it.

The further point that I tried to make is that when a negotiator lacks authority to make a deal, as we're told was the case with Duquette, and the other side knows that the decision-maker may very well not approve the deal, it makes the negotiation more difficult. 

You're right that I don't know what happened in any of the trade deadline negotiations, and don't know whether what I just explained impeded the negotiations at all or, if so, how much. I was just speculating that it might have. I'm sorry to have wasted your time and to have "clouded your brain," whatever that means.. 

 

[Cumberbundy]

8 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

Something happened to him about halfway through last season. I don't think he's 100% physically. He was a real left-handed relieve prospect, now, unless they can fix him or he can get healthy, he's not.

Now I've got the cold play song in my head and a heavy heart. I want us to fix Cleav. ☹️

[Bahama O's Fan]

Oh well. Let's win em all!

[Cumberbundy]

8 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

Both of these are right on the mark. Is the 2017 team a bit better with Hellickson and Beckam, probably, but not enough to jump six teams in the standings. Maybe Beckam gets a new life with the Orioles and solidifies the SS position for a few seasons, but if the Orioles have just doubled down on the core for one last run in 2018.

Say goodbye to Manny after that and look for the team to overpay for Jones so we can have another high priced declining fan favorite. 

If that happens I'm gonna go home, I'm gonna see dr Finkelstein and tell him we've got a whole new bag of issues, we can forget about mom for awhile.

[Cumberbundy]

9 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

Both of these are right on the mark. Is the 2017 team a bit better with Hellickson and Beckam, probably, but not enough to jump six teams in the standings. Maybe Beckam gets a new life with the Orioles and solidifies the SS position for a few seasons, but if the Orioles have just doubled down on the core for one last run in 2018.

Say goodbye to Manny after that and look for the team to overpay for Jones so we can have another high priced declining fan favorite. 

They must be reading cumberbundy posts. 

[RichmondVA Orio]

Pack it in here. Nothing to see people.

[Roll Tide]

12 hours ago, weams said:

The bids I've heard of treat Britton as an injured closer. 

 

12 hours ago, weams said:

My friend tells me that Tucker or Fisher were Orioles demands from Astros.

I can understand Tucker ...but Fisher is a Trumbo/Davis clone looking at his stats ...tons of Ks, iffy defender, poor defensive instincts, and below average arm. Are our scouts really that bad?

Moran would have been a much better target if we couldn't get Tucker. I understand wanting Tucker...can't understand the demand for Fisher.

 

Quote

 

Scouting grades: Hit: 50 | Power: 55 | Run: 60 | Arm: 40 | Field: 45 | Overall: 55

Fisher has tantalized scouts with his tools and frustrated them with his inconsistency since he was a Pennsylvania high schooler. A supplemental first-round pick in 2014 after helping Virginia reach the College World Series finals, he signed for $1,534,100. He delivered 43 homers and 59 steals while reaching Triple-A in his first two full pro seasons, but he also struck out 286 times in 252 games. 

No one in the Astros organization can match Fisher's combination of well above-average raw power and at least plus speed. He has a sweet left-handed stroke and plenty of bat speed, though he doesn't have strong feel for hitting and strikeouts will always be a part of his game. He has improved his plate discipline since turning pro and should draw a healthy amount of walks. 

Fisher's quickness plays much better on the bases than it does in the outfield. He should have the wheels to play center field, but he lacks instincts and is an iffy defender there. His below-average arm likely will relegate him to left field in the long run.

 

http://macksmets.blogspot.com/2017/07/macks-morning-report-7-17-david.html