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Rationalization thread


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This is my attempt to turn today's "events" into a positive thing.

MacPhail has said that what this system needs in an influx of "talent". So that's exact what Jordan did today...took a lot of high ceiling talent.

AM has also said that he believes its easier to get bats through free agency then pitchers are. So I'm going to assume that he is planning on improving our lineup through free agency in the next two years with a few carefully placed moves.

I'm going to keep telling myself these things anyways, so I can try and get past my anger from today. (I mean, could you imagine a lineup with two switch hitting thumpers like Smoak and Wieters?)

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I was thinking along the same lines. Maybe MacPhail is hoping to get more high-level (AA and AAA) talent through trades at the deadline and this offseason and he told Jordan to focus on low-level talent with a lot of upside.

Just a thought. I'm trying to make sense of this whole thing!

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If that is the case then this is an organization that is going in two directions at once. Matusz is a polished college guy with very little ceiling and will be ready soon (if at all) where as the rest of the picks are similar to what you are suggesting.

If they want an influx of talent, take some high ceiling guys and hope for the best. It just didn't appear that the O's had a philosophy yesterday and that is disheartening.

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I honestly think that the draft of Matusz means that one of our pitching procpect like Arrieta, Tillman etc. will be traded this offseason for some young bats.

Those two aren't going anywhere for a long time. They are the two guys we are least likely to trade out of all of our pitching.

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If that is the case then this is an organization that is going in two directions at once. Matusz is a polished college guy with very little ceiling and will be ready soon (if at all) where as the rest of the picks are similar to what you are suggesting.

If they want an influx of talent, take some high ceiling guys and hope for the best. It just didn't appear that the O's had a philosophy yesterday and that is disheartening.

Yeah, we are lucky if he can make it through A ball. :rolleyes:

What is Baseball America thinking :confused: listing this guy as the 2ND best prospect in the entire draft?

This popular phrase made ad nauseum about Matusz (no ceiling, little ceiling, etc) really doesn't mean anything. Unless you have a crystal ball- you do not know what his actual ceiling is. Many players with a HUGE ceiling have failed and many prospects with no ceiling have exceeded expectations.

When scouts refer to Matusz not having a huge ceiling, you have to put it into the context of their overall rating. He already has several plus pitches, great command, etc..... and is the best college pitcher in many scouts eyes.

In other words- he is an "almost" finished product. And that is viewed as a bad thing? :confused:

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I honestly think that the draft of Matusz means that one of our pitching procpect like Arrieta, Tillman etc. will be traded this offseason for some young bats.

If these three guys pan out... they'll all be #1 / #2 starters in our rotation.

Yes, please. Give me 3 studs in my rotation who I control for a loooooong time.

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Remember it only takes one draft pick to become an All Star for the draft to be a success. I think we've gotten a little spoiled over last year's draft. We should wait and see what Matusz can do first and also hope that Avery's tools translate into success. Anything else is gravy.

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The biggest problem I have with yesterday's picks is that even in the best case scenario, the team didn't even attempt to address their glaring needs for corner infielders and for middle of the order hitters.

The O's also have a glaring need for middle infielders. At least they attempted to address that. If Miclat can get on base and if Hoes can handle 2B defensively then this could still be a successful draft.

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The biggest problem I have with yesterday's picks is that even in the best case scenario, the team didn't even attempt to address their glaring needs for corner infielders and for middle of the order hitters.

The O's also have a glaring need for middle infielders. At least they attempted to address that. If Miclat can get on base and if Hoes can handle 2B defensively then this could still be a successful draft.

That is a fair assessment, but this is also an organization that lacks speed and middle defense depth. We have a ton of holes. You can do only so much. It is often difficult to measure the worth of defense as we all tend to just assume every play should be made. With the decline in power production, I imagine that more balls are being left in the field of play . . . which should increase the worth of defense. Still, your best teams are almost always the ones that hit homeruns no matter how much homerun hitting decreases.

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I honestly think that the draft of Matusz means that one of our pitching procpect like Arrieta, Tillman etc. will be traded this offseason for some young bats.

Pitching surpluses certainly give you those options.

It could also mean moving DCab or Guthrie is more likely because they are not seen as long term pieces.

I guess we'll find out.

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I have to admit I don't understand the criticism for the O's picks. I mean, I understand that when draft time roles around, it seems that all these people become draft gurus and "know what's best" for the team. But the baseball draft is a crapshoot. Even moreso than the NFL Draft. Most of the players taken in the draft thus far haven't been seen by anyone here. Everyone gets mad because so and so (Baseball America or otherwise) had someone ranked higher or they're trying to project high schoolers 4-5 down the road. It's a fool's gambit. No one really knows this very well, not even the experts. And it's not like the O's went way off board. A lot of people are very high on Matusz. Avery graded as a second rounder. There's legit talent there.

I also think people are being unrealistic about these players. Most drafts picks amount to nothing. Look back at any draft, particularly after the first round. A lot of teams made picks and very few of them became anything significant at the big league level. People are bemoaning this player or that player, and in the end it's likely neither player does anything.

I'll admit I wanted the O's to take Smoak too. I mean I knew Matusz would be taken if the top guys were gone, it was one of the league's worst kept secrets. But I can't sit here and say with any certainty who will have the better career, Smoak or Matusz. I'm willing to let it play out before I rush to judgment. In a few years some people here may be able to say "I told you so", but not now. If the O's pulled an Astros and took a guy like Castro over Smoak I'd be mad. But that didn't happen.

Bottom line, keep your expectations in check, realize that even the experts aren't all that great at projecting baseball players in the draft, and let the players play before writing them off as worthless.

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I think what AM and JJ have done with this draft is put AM in a situation where he pretty much HAS to make at least a minor splash in free agency in the next 2 years. We may have the best starting rotation in baseball in 3 years,, but we have some holes in the field that will not be filled by this year's draft pics (at least not before 3 years)

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I have to admit I don't understand the criticism for the O's picks. I mean, I understand that when draft time roles around, it seems that all these people become draft gurus and "know what's best" for the team. But the baseball draft is a crapshoot. Even moreso than the NFL Draft. Most of the players taken in the draft thus far haven't been seen by anyone here. Everyone gets mad because so and so (Baseball America or otherwise) had someone ranked higher or they're trying to project high schoolers 4-5 down the road. It's a fool's gambit. No one really knows this very well, not even the experts. And it's not like the O's went way off board. A lot of people are very high on Matusz. Avery graded as a second rounder. There's legit talent there.

I also think people are being unrealistic about these players. Most drafts picks amount to nothing. Look back at any draft, particularly after the first round. A lot of teams made picks and very few of them became anything significant at the big league level. People are bemoaning this player or that player, and in the end it's likely neither player does anything.

I'll admit I wanted the O's to take Smoak too. I mean I knew Matusz would be taken if the top guys were gone, it was one of the league's worst kept secrets. But I can't sit here and say with any certainty who will have the better career, Smoak or Matusz. I'm willing to let it play out before I rush to judgment. In a few years some people here may be able to say "I told you so", but not now. If the O's pulled an Astros and took a guy like Castro over Smoak I'd be mad. But that didn't happen.

Bottom line, keep your expectations in check, realize that even the experts aren't all that great at projecting baseball players in the draft, and let the players play before writing them off as worthless.

I agree 100% with every word of this post.

Of course some posters will be able to say *I told you so* over some of these picks.

There will also be posters who look like chumps for their outrage over some other picks.

But, that can be said of ALL mlb drafts. It is a lot harder to project baseball players than nfl or nba picks.

So, considering the nature of the beast, getting to excited or upset about a MLB draft is kind of irrational.

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It's a matter of philosophy, but I'd rather draft a great athlete than some gigantic unathletic brut who's only hope is to become a masher. I don't know Avery from Adam, but I do know that, of the thousands of draft-eligible high school and college players, most publications had him, as a high schooler, rated somewhere near where we picked him.

We got a projectable talent. Hopefully AM fixes what's ailing our developmental system so we can actually develop a couple of these guys. Honestly, if AM can't do that, it really doesn't matter who we pick after Rd. 1 anyway.

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