Prospects or Suspects?

[JohnD]

I know Tony is getting ready to put together all this fun stuff but taking a peek at a few names had me wondering about a few guys.  

From the GCL O's:

Lamar Sparks was a CF who is 18, and had a great obp thanks to his walk rate.  He walked nearly as often as he K'ed.  Really good Sb% too, but no power from the 5th rounder.  Looms to me like a future leadoff slap hitter, but will he be slighted for his weak slugging % or does that figure to improve?

Jose Montanez primarily caught, with some shakey numbers.  Good obp, and few walks or strikeouts.  Little power.  Also just 18.

Jose Lizarraga was 19.  He has always had a great eye.  Power seemed to pick up.  Defensive numbers seem to be legit.  Appears better than Montanez, at least on surface.

 

[Luke-OH]

2 hours ago, JohnD said:

I know Tony is getting ready to put together all this fun stuff but taking a peek at a few names had me wondering about a few guys.  

From the GCL O's:

Lamar Sparks was a CF who is 18, and had a great obp thanks to his walk rate.  He walked nearly as often as he K'ed.  Really good Sb% too, but no power from the 5th rounder.  Looms to me like a future leadoff slap hitter, but will he be slighted for his weak slugging % or does that figure to improve?

Jose Montanez primarily caught, with some shakey numbers.  Good obp, and few walks or strikeouts.  Little power.  Also just 18.

Jose Lizarraga was 19.  He has always had a great eye.  Power seemed to pick up.  Defensive numbers seem to be legit.  Appears better than Montanez, at least on surface.

 

I haven't seen any of these guys play (I've seen BP video of Sparks) so I don't have much to add, but I wouldn't resign Sparks to slap hitter status yet.  Draft analysts tabbed him as being extremely raw, the type of guy that you don't expect to see anything from for a few years.  His swing (at least in BP) looks to have some loft.  He transfers his weight well, but hasn't really figured out how to create hip separation yet, that and being very thin are probably limiting his power.  He has an extremely projectable frame, I'd be surprised if he doesn't gain 20+ pounds of good weight. 

I think Spark's early results are very encouraging, I was expecting someone who'd need to repeat the GCL, but it looks like he'd be ready for Aberdeen at least next year.

[JohnD]

That's good to hear about Sparks.  His numbers are really exciting.

[Ruzious]

Some of us were talking the other day about whether or not speed is overrated.  My view is it's not if you're an OFer. Sparks being a speedster gives him a leg up, so to speak.  And if he's successful in building up strength to that 6'2 165 lb frame, he likely becomes a compelling prospect.  The other 2... I have no idea.  Lizzaraga seems like he might be interesting to follow, but 5'10 170 lb catcher/1st basemen are unusual prospects.      

[Can_of_corn]

6 minutes ago, Ruzious said:

Some of us were talking the other day about whether or not speed is overrated.  My view is it's not if you're an OFer. Sparks being a speedster gives him a leg up, so to speak.  And if he's successful in building up strength to that 6'2 165 lb frame, he likely becomes a compelling prospect.  The other 2... I have no idea.  Lizzaraga seems like he might be interesting to follow, but 5'10 170 lb catcher/1st basemen are unusual prospects.      

Well sure, if the speed means superior range.  Someone like Pie was fast and all his speed did was make up for his bad routes and reads.

[Ruzious]

2 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Well sure, if the speed means superior range.  Someone like Pie was fast and all his speed did was make up for his bad routes and reads.

Yeah, no physical tool is going to make up for playing stupid.  It's just like can have a real strong arm but fail to set your feet right before throwing.

[Ruzious]

I hate not being able to edit.  Anyway, point being - at least at this point, it's the speed tool - as much as anything else - that sets Sparks apart, imo, and got him selected in the 5th round.    

[Luke-OH]

12 minutes ago, Ruzious said:

I hate not being able to edit.  Anyway, point being - at least at this point, it's the speed tool - as much as anything else - that sets Sparks apart, imo, and got him selected in the 5th round.    

His arm is his best tool though.  His projectable body got him selected in the 5th round.

[Ruzious]

1 hour ago, phillyOs119 said:

His arm is his best tool though.  His projectable body got him selected in the 5th round.

I don't see it.  Without his great speed, he'd be a corner OFer with no power - his ceiling would be Kim, imo - if everything went right for him.    

[Luke-OH]

14 minutes ago, Ruzious said:

I don't see it.  Without his great speed, he'd be a corner OFer with no power - his ceiling would be Kim, imo - if everything went right for him.    

He has a grade 70 arm, tell me what other tool he has grades higher than that? 

Also, who says he will have no power?  Scouting the stat line in the GCL can be treacherous.

[Frobby]

2 hours ago, phillyOs119 said:

His arm is his best tool though.  His projectable body got him selected in the 5th round.

 

36 minutes ago, Ruzious said:

I don't see it.  Without his great speed, he'd be a corner OFer with no power - his ceiling would be Kim, imo - if everything went right for him.    

 

8 minutes ago, phillyOs119 said:

He has a grade 70 arm, tell me what other tool he has grades higher than that? 

Also, who says he will have no power?  Scouting the stat line in the GCL can be treacherous.

Seems to me you two are using the term "best tool" in different ways.     Philly is using the term to mean "most exceptional" and Ruzius is using it to mean "most important."     Not all tools are of equal importance, and their relative importance varies depending on the player's position.       It's quite possible that Sparks' arm could be his most exceptional tool but speed could be his most important tool, no?

[Il BuonO]

3 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

Well sure, if the speed means superior range.  Someone like Pie was fast and all his speed did was make up for his bad routes and reads.

Yes, but he was a champion helmet chaser.

[Luke-OH]

8 minutes ago, Frobby said:

 

 

Seems to me you two are using the term "best tool" in different ways.     Philly is using the term to mean "most exceptional" and Ruzius is using it to mean "most important."     Not all tools are of equal importance, and their relative importance varies depending on the player's position.       It's quite possible that Sparks' arm could be his most exceptional tool but speed could be his most important tool, no?

Yeah, there could be a disconnect there.  I do mean most exceptional (aka highest graded) tool.  

 

My point of contention is that Sparks has to be a glove/run prospect in order to be anything.  I don't think it's possible to know that at this point.  He's 18, scrawny, but with broad shoulders, he's going to add significant weight.  Will that slow him down, I don't know, will that allow him to hit for power in games, I don't know.  He also has room to tweak his swing to get to more power, will the Orioles have him change his swing, I don't know.  Austin Hays changed his swing between college and pro ball.  Then all of a sudden a fringe power guy hit 32 home runs in a season and he was much closer to being a finished product when drafted than Sparks.

[Ruzious]

Thing is, we know he's got speed.  We have no idea if he'll have power.  He's never shown it, so there's no reason to assume he has that tool, so I can't imagine he was drafted for his power.  Yes, he may develop it, but I don''t think that's why he was drafted.  And Frobby was correct in my thinking - I think scouts are looking much more for speed than arm in OF prospects - though having a great arm is a nice plus. For OFer's, I'll take the speedster with an average arm vs the guy with average speed and a great arm.  Home Depot definitely has power tools.  With Sparks, the odds are against it.