Austin Hays

[scbalt52]

37 minutes ago, interloper said:

I think Buck will wait until they are mathematically eliminated, because Buck. 

Speaking of that, what are the details of when we are 'eliminated' ?

[Ohfan67]

7 minutes ago, scbalt52 said:

Speaking of that, what are the details of when we are 'eliminated' ?

It's complicated: https://www.playoffmagic.com/mlb/

If I understand that table correctly, it looks like the Twins magic number against the O's is 14; any combination of Twins wins and O's losses would eliminate the O's. All of the teams ahead of the O's have magic numbers versus the O's. 

 

p.s. The way everybody is playing, the second AL wild card team is going to back up into the playoffs. Unless some teams catch fire, then the O's might not be mathematically eliminated until there's five or even fewer games left in the season (technically 4.5 right now). If the Orioles aren't going to make it, then I would rather they be eliminated sooner than later. Maybe then Buck would play the rookies. 

[Frobby]

4 minutes ago, scbalt52 said:

Speaking of that, what are the details of when we are 'eliminated' ?

We probably won't be mathematically eliminated until the final week of the season.    Its when we can't possibly win as many games as the 2nd WC leader has won already.     Right now it's still mathematically possible for us to win 88 games.    The Twins have won 75, so the "tragic number" is currently 14.    Any combination of Twins wins and Oriole losses adding up to 14 would eliminate us.   Of course, even if the Twins went on a massive losing streak, we'd still need to catch and pass the Angels, Royals, Rangers, Mariners and Rays, all of whom are ahead of us now.    

[Pat Kelly]

The thing is there is a need for some spark on offense.   Manny and Schoop have stopped hitting home runs (this week) Beckham Machado and Schoop carried the team in August.    Others have to step - they are not -so Buck should try something else - start Hays and possibly Cisco.

[Frobby]

2 minutes ago, Pat Kelly said:

The thing is there is a need for some spark on offense.   Manny and Schoop have stopped hitting home runs (this week) Beckham Machado and Schoop carried the team in August.    Others have to step - they are not -so Buck should try something else - start Hays and possibly Cisco.

I would not say Beckham, Manny and Schoop carried the team in August.    They were all very good (especially Beckham and Manny) but so were Castillo (1.113 OPS), Gentry (1.036), Jones (.940), Smith (.846) and Mancini (.818).    It was a team effort, not 2-3 hot players.

What I'm noticing now is a lack of patience and willingness to pass the baton on to the next guy.    Everyone's pressing.    If they can just relax a bit and things will fall back into place.   

[FlipTheBird]

6 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I would not say Beckham, Manny and Schoop carried the team in August.    They were all very good (especially Beckham and Manny) but so were Castillo (1.113 OPS), Gentry (1.036), Jones (.940), Smith (.846) and Mancini (.818).    It was a team effort, not 2-3 hot players.

What I'm noticing now is a lack of patience and willingness to pass the baton on to the next guy.    Everyone's pressing.    If they can just relax a bit and things will fall back into place.   

It's gotten out of control. Guys are failing to make routine plays, now.

I think it'll be best when the 2017 season just finishes. This team is all twisted up.

[Frobby]

Just now, FlipTheBird said:

It's gotten out of control. Guys are failing to make routine plays, now.

I think it'll be best when the 2017 season just finishes. This team is all twisted up.

Meh, I've seen this stuff turn on a dime plenty of times.    I'm not saying I think the O's will make the playoffs, but it's perfectly plausible that they'll return to playing decent baseball at some point.

[Pat Kelly]

It seems the offense has been all or nothing for much of the year.    Right now no one gets on base,  no one walks,  HRs are all solos.   Everyone is pressing. 

[Frobby]

9 minutes ago, birdwatcher55 said:

You could get your wish if we get swept in NY.

I think the absolute earliest we could be eliminated is next Tuesday, if we lost 7 straight and the Twins won 7 straight.    That would leave us 11 games out with 10 games to play.     In reality, it won't come that quickly.     

[JohnD]

NOw that he is here it is absurd to even consider playing Rickard over Hays.  Rickard may be on his way to being the next TJ McFarland in that Buck will keep going to the well for something not there.

[Frobby]

3 minutes ago, JohnD said:

NOw that he is here it is absurd to even consider playing Rickard over Hays.  Rickard may be on his way to being the next TJ McFarland in that Buck will keep going to the well for something not there.

By the way, McFarland had it going on this year for a while (2.29 ERA through July) before imploding last month (12.2 IP, 19 ER).     Currently pitching to a 5.11 ERA with the DBacks.

[Pat Kelly]

No Hays in the lineup. Smith back in RF, Caleb catching,  no Pedro at DH.  Buck in full Captain of the Titanic, there's no iceberg mode.  

[OriolesMagic83]

My estimate that Hays would only get 20 ABs from his callup until the end of the year looks a little high. 

[FlipTheBird]

22 hours ago, Ohfan67 said:

It's complicated: https://www.playoffmagic.com/mlb/

If I understand that table correctly, it looks like the Twins magic number against the O's is 14; any combination of Twins wins and O's losses would eliminate the O's. All of the teams ahead of the O's have magic numbers versus the O's. 

 

p.s. The way everybody is playing, the second AL wild card team is going to back up into the playoffs. Unless some teams catch fire, then the O's might not be mathematically eliminated until there's five or even fewer games left in the season (technically 4.5 right now). If the Orioles aren't going to make it, then I would rather they be eliminated sooner than later. Maybe then Buck would play the rookies. 

The Twins aren't running away with anything, but they're not playing poorly, either.

[Frobby]

13 minutes ago, FlipTheBird said:

The Twins aren't running away with anything, but they're not playing poorly, either.

BP now has their playoff odds up to 66%.