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Are we a bad team masquerading as a mediocre one?


Frobby

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For us to be successful, we must play above average defense and have above average offense.  That of course assumes that our starting pitching will be below average and the bull pen above average.

 

It is almost impossible to be in the top on defense without being outstanding up the middle.  I think that currently the only everyday defensive players that are above average are:  Manny, Schoop and Davis.


Thoughts?

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1 hour ago, maybenxtyr said:

I was looking at the runs per game totals because I feel like the offense has had a lot of games where they put up inflated numbers, which kind of skews the offensive ranking. They have had 41 games where they have scored 7+ runs. That's pretty good. They have had 46 games where they have scored 2 or less. So, I think I was wrong as the higher scoring games and lower scoring games kind of balance out. They have been shut out a total 8 times...I think this is just a bad team.

8 shutouts is average -- the 15 AL teams have been shut out 119 times, or 7.93 per team.    46 times with 2 runs or less is slightly high -- AL teams have done that 601 times, an average of 40.07 per team.   In our defense, the breakdown between one run and two run games is more favorable for the Orioles (13 vs. 25) than for the league (232 vs. 250).    The average AL team has scored only one run 15.47 times compared to our 13; two runs 16.67 times compared to our 25.   I think at the end of the day, our distribution of runs scored is fairly normal.

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30 minutes ago, foxfield said:

For us to be successful, we must play above average defense and have above average offense.  That of course assumes that our starting pitching will be below average and the bull pen above average.

 

It is almost impossible to be in the top on defense without being outstanding up the middle.  I think that currently the only everyday defensive players that are above average are:  Manny, Schoop and Davis.


Thoughts?

Schoop's arm is fantastic. The rest of his defensive game I would say is below average.

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5 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

Schoop's arm is fantastic. The rest of his defensive game I would say is below average.

I think that is fair, but that does not negate my point that for a team that claims to want to rely on defense, it is a very small group of everyday players that can be described in anyway as above average.  That is a problem.   

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10 minutes ago, foxfield said:

I think that is fair, but that does not negate my point that for a team that claims to want to rely on defense, it is a very small group of everyday players that can be described in anyway as above average.  That is a problem.   

Absolutely agree with your larger point!

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16 minutes ago, foxfield said:

I think that is fair, but that does not negate my point that for a team that claims to want to rely on defense, it is a very small group of everyday players that can be described in anyway as above average.  That is a problem.   

There was an interesting article in fangraphs yesterday arguing that with all the advances in defensive positioning, defensive skill (especially range) is less important than it used to be.     http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-challenge-of-being-a-modern-day-scout/

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Not a believer in this team or this GM.  Trottng out the starting pitching of Ubaldo, Hellickson, Miley, etc should be considered embarrassing.  Thankfully, the medical staff saved us from eating the Gallardo contract in full.

Thankfully, many other AL teams have their own issues, but I consider us two to three quality players weaker than Cleveland, Boston and other playoff teams.

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Just now, Frobby said:

There was an interesting article in fangraphs yesterday arguing that with all the advances in defensive positioning, defensive skill (especially range) is less important than it used to be.     http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-challenge-of-being-a-modern-day-scout/

And yet with all of the advances...our defenders are still not considered to be very good.  I am not trying to make a judgement here, really more of a question.  I do not think there is any amount of money we can spend that is going to give us a top 5 starting rotation next year or the year after.  Therefore, we have to continue to be very good in relief and above average on Defense and Offense.  I just do not see a way to make the next two years work otherwise.

 

In fairness, DD hitting on another Miggy, Tilly coming back cheaply and rebounding and then Bundy and Gausman taking major steps forward could be a formula for success, but that is sort of what we have done since we won the AL East.

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7 hours ago, Frobby said:

I go back and forth on this topic.    We are 72-75, and by Pythagorean record, should be more like 69-78.    That's pretty bad.

Fangraphs ran a piece this morning where they broke down the fWAR totals for every team into top 5 players, next 5, and then 11-25.    That analysis had our top 5 in 21st place out of 30 teams, the next five in 24th place, the 11-25 guys in 25th place, and overall total in 27th place -- fourth from the bottom!    http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/breaking-down-where-the-wins-have-come-from/

It still feels like it all comes down to pitching, but by fWAR, our position players are 20th out of 30. The pitchers are 25th, very poor but perhaps not as epically bad as the team ERA suggests.   That's because the team's defense ranks 26th among the 30 teams, at -26.2 runs.   The outfield defense is at -30.3, which believe it or not, is a big improvement over last year, when it was -55.5.   And by the way, the offense is only so-so, 16th out of 30.    All in all, not a formula for a winning team.    

There is truth in your words for all to see...

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8 hours ago, Frobby said:

I go back and forth on this topic.    We are 72-75, and by Pythagorean record, should be more like 69-78.    That's pretty bad.

Fangraphs ran a piece this morning where they broke down the fWAR totals for every team into top 5 players, next 5, and then 11-25.    That analysis had our top 5 in 21st place out of 30 teams, the next five in 24th place, the 11-25 guys in 25th place, and overall total in 27th place -- fourth from the bottom!    http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/breaking-down-where-the-wins-have-come-from/

It still feels like it all comes down to pitching, but by fWAR, our position players are 20th out of 30. The pitchers are 25th, very poor but perhaps not as epically bad as the team ERA suggests.   That's because the team's defense ranks 26th among the 30 teams, at -26.2 runs.   The outfield defense is at -30.3, which believe it or not, is a big improvement over last year, when it was -55.5.   And by the way, the offense is only so-so, 16th out of 30.    All in all, not a formula for a winning team.    

Good information which supports my own informal impression that this team needs a major rebuild, not an offseason patch around the edges. 

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