Perusing the FA pitcher list...

[Frobby]

So, I've been studying the FA pitcher list.   BP gave 52 names, but I think you can eliminate six guys who either have favorable team options (Bumgarner, G. Gonzalez, M. Perez, Sale and Tomlin) or who are sure not to exercise their opt-out clause (Chen).     I judge that there are another 12 who either on their way out of baseball or who will get MiL deals at best.     That leaves me with 34 pitchers who pitched enough in 2017 to be plausible targets (and believe me, I'm stretching the term plausible).    

Of the 34, only 15 appear likely to pitch enough innings to qualify for the ERA title.     I'll list them in order of their 2017 ERA to date, and give some brief data:

Jake Arrieta (32 next season), 3.43 ERA (127 ERA+) in 165 IP; 3.56 (114) in 1158 career IP.

Andrew Cashner (31), 3.44 (136) in 157; 3.81(101) in 883.

Lance Lynn (31), 3.47 (121) in 181; 3.39 (114) in 972.

Alex Cobb (30), 3.66 (114) in 179; 3.50 (112) in 700.

Yu Darvish (31), 3.96 (111) in 179; 3.43 (125) in 826.

Jhoulys Chacin (30), 3.98 (104) in 174, 3.95 (111) in 1017.

Jason Vargas (35), 4.03 (112) in 169; 4.16 (96) in 1391.

R.A. Dickey (43), 4.32 (99) in 183; 4.04 (102) in 2067.

Jaime Garcia (31), 4.41 (99) in 157; 3.69 (107) in 1053.

Clayton Richard (34), 4.63 (89) in 192; 4.30 (90) in 1075.

John Lackey (39), 4.67 (93) in 163; 3.92 (110) in 2833.

Masahiro Tanaka (29), 4.94 (92) in 171; 3.59 (118) in 661.  (Can opt out of 3/$67 mm remaining on his deal.)

Ricky Nolasco (35), 5.06 (83) in 170; 4.57 (90) in 1877.   ($13 mm team option, $1 mm buyout.)

Matt Moore (29), 5.20 (81) in 173; 4.19 (95) in 781.    (Team option for $9 mm, $1 mm buyout.)

Jeremy Hellickson (31), 5.43 (62) in 164; 4.12 (97) in 1139.

My best guess is that Tanaka and Moore won't be free agents, but Nolasco will be.    But I'm not 100% sure on any of these three, so I put them on the list.    

I've read here that we should target Cobb, Lynn and/or Chacin, but when you look at the scarcity of talent on this list, you can see that any of those three will be quite expensive.    I'm not saying we shouldn't chase them, I'm just saying prepare yourself for what they're going to cost.    None of those guys are coming for what we paid Ubaldo.

I'll get to the other 20 names later, but this post is long enough.    Thoughts on who (if any) of these we should chase, and what you think it will cost?

 

 

[higgybaby]

We need to sign two of them. I don't believe for a second we will. Bit we need to. 

[Can_of_corn]

Arrieta, Darvish, done.

[higgybaby]

Sale has a team opt out. 

[24fps]

Lynn, Cobb or Chacin.  5/100-120.  But maybe they all hold out for more years which would mean more money.  I don't see the team spending FA prices for two decent starters.

Trade for the other starter, so that means bye-bye Manny if we want somebody effective.

[Luke-OH]

14 minutes ago, Frobby said:

So, I've been studying the FA pitcher list.   BP gave 52 names, but I think you can eliminate six guys who either have favorable team options (Bumgarner, G. Gonzalez, M. Perez, Sale and Tomlin) or who are sure not to exercise their opt-out clause (Chen).     I judge that there are another 12 who either on their way out of baseball or who will get MiL deals at best.     That leaves me with 34 pitchers who pitched enough in 2017 to be plausible targets (and believe me, I'm stretching the term plausible).    

Of the 34, only 15 appear likely to pitch enough innings to qualify for the ERA title.     I'll list them in order of their 2017 ERA to date, and give some brief data:

Jake Arrieta (32 next season), 3.43 ERA (127 ERA+) in 165 IP; 3.56 (114) in 1158 career IP.

Andrew Cashner (31), 3.44 (136) in 157; 3.81(101) in 883.

Lance Lynn (31), 3.47 (121) in 181; 3.39 (114) in 972.

Alex Cobb (30), 3.66 (114) in 179; 3.50 (112) in 700.

Yu Darvish (31), 3.96 (111) in 179; 3.43 (125) in 826.

Jhoulys Chacin (30), 3.98 (104) in 174, 3.95 (111) in 1017.

Jason Vargas (35), 4.03 (112) in 169; 4.16 (96) in 1391.

R.A. Dickey (43), 4.32 (99) in 183; 4.04 (102) in 2067.

Jaime Garcia (31), 4.41 (99) in 157; 3.69 (107) in 1053.

Clayton Richard (34), 4.63 (89) in 192; 4.30 (90) in 1075.

John Lackey (39), 4.67 (93) in 163; 3.92 (110) in 2833.

Masahiro Tanaka (29), 4.94 (92) in 171; 3.59 (118) in 661.  (Can opt out of 3/$67 mm remaining on his deal.)

Ricky Nolasco (35), 5.06 (83) in 170; 4.57 (90) in 1877.   ($13 mm team option, $1 mm buyout.)

Matt Moore (29), 5.20 (81) in 173; 4.19 (95) in 781.    (Team option for $9 mm, $1 mm buyout.)

Jeremy Hellickson (31), 5.43 (62) in 164; 4.12 (97) in 1139.

My best guess is that Tanaka and Moore won't be free agents, but Nolasco will be.    But I'm not 100% sure on any of these three, so I put them on the list.    

I've read here that we should target Cobb, Lynn and/or Chacin, but when you look at the scarcity of talent on this list, you can see that any of those three will be quite expensive.    I'm not saying we shouldn't chase them, I'm just saying prepare yourself for what they're going to cost.    None of those guys are coming for what we paid Ubaldo.

I'll get to the other 20 names later, but this post is long enough.    Thoughts on who (if any) of these we should chase, and what you think it will cost?

 

 

Chatwood is my #1 target, best velocity, best groundball rate, one of the youngest.  Will come at a reasonable price, best combo of value and upside. 

[wildbillhiccup]

I think Chacin will fly under the radar a bit. He'll definitely get less than Cobb, even though he probably shouldn't. Darvish is out of our price range (and probably not a sound long term investment), Cashner will get more than he should. All that said, I'd say our best option is Chacin or to trade one of our bullpen arms for a starter. Just my 2 cents. 

[Frobby]

4 minutes ago, phillyOs119 said:

Chatwood is my #1 target, best velocity, best groundball rate, one of the youngest.  Will come at a reasonable price, best combo of value and upside. 

Yes, he's not going to pitch enough innings to qualify in 2017, but he's a good candidate.    I do wonder about his durability, since he has never pitched enough innings to qualify in any season.

[Frobby]

23 minutes ago, wildbillhiccup said:

I think Chacin will fly under the radar a bit. He'll definitely get less than Cobb, even though he probably shouldn't. Darvish is out of our price range (and probably not a sound long term investment), Cashner will get more than he should. All that said, I'd say our best option is Chacin or to trade one of our bullpen arms for a starter. Just my 2 cents. 

What do you think it takes to land Chacin?   I'm guessing something in the 4/$70 mm or 5/$80 mm range.    Could be more if there's salary inflation this winter.   

[oriole]

If I had to make an honest guess as to who we sign...it's something along the lines of Chacin, Moore, Tillman. 

[NedFromYork]

Cobb or Lynn, Castro or Blier, Tillman

[wildcard]

Free agent pitchers that are good are not coming to the Camden Yards.   They have too many other choices.   The O's would have to overpay them by so much to get them to sign that its not going to happen.   Think trade.

[Frobby]

1 minute ago, wildcard said:

Free agent pitchers that are good are not coming to the Camden Yards.   They have too many other choices.   The O's would have to overpay them by so much to get them to sign that its not going to happen.   Think trade.

We might be able to get Matt Moore in a trade.    The Padres have a $9 mm option they may not be enthusiastic about exercising, but he's a better bet than Miley, and he has another option for 2019 for $10 mm.    

[SteveA]

4 minutes ago, Frobby said:

We might be able to get Matt Moore in a trade.    The Padres have a $9 mm option they may not be enthusiastic about exercising, but he's a better bet than Miley, and he has another option for 2019 for $10 mm.    

Assume you mean Giants, yeah, I like that idea.   AL East experience, lefty.   Coming off a down year, would expect a bit of a bounceback.

[wildcard]

5 minutes ago, Frobby said:

We might be able to get Matt Moore in a trade.    The Padres have a $9 mm option they may not be enthusiastic about exercising, but he's a better bet than Miley, and he has another option for 2019 for $10 mm.    

Matt Moore is a Giant.