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The #11 Pick in 2018 draft


Diehard_O's_Fan

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6 hours ago, Br10n said:

I believe that it will be 3 of the top 55 or so picks.  We will get a pick between the first and second round.  Under the new collective-bargaining agreement the pick rotates between a post first round and a post second round pick  every year.  Last year we were after the second round so this year it will be after the first round.

Unless we sell it to get rid of Trumbo or O'Day.

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2 minutes ago, birdwatcher55 said:

So your implication is both will be traded and both will require giving up draft picks to complete deals? I don't see it happening because Buck loves O'Day and Trumbo's contract is quite manageable.

Considering that only one draft pick can be traded, no I don't think both will be bundled with draft picks.

Since the Competitive Balance Draft picks have been introduced only Dan has used them to dump contracts.  He's done it twice.

While I don't think he will do it, it certainly woudln't surprise me if he did.

 

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22 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Considering that only one draft pick can be traded, no I don't think both will be bundled with draft picks.

Since the Competitive Balance Draft picks have been introduced only Dan has used them to dump contracts.  He's done it twice.

While I don't think he will do it, it certainly woudln't surprise me if he did.

 

On the one hand, the two times he traded the competitive balance pick, it was a Round B pick (between 2nd and 3rd rounds).   The Round A pick we have this time is a much more precious commodity.    

On the other hand, if he'd use the Round B picks for dumping minor contracts like Matusz's and Webb's, it's hard to believe he'd be reluctant to use a Round A to dump a major albatross like the Davis contract.    

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2 minutes ago, Frobby said:

On the one hand, the two times he traded the competitive balance pick, it was a Round B pick (between 2nd and 3rd rounds).   The Round A pick we have this time is a much more precious commodity.    

On the other hand, if he'd use the Round B picks for dumping minor contracts like Matusz's and Webb's, it's hard to believe he'd be reluctant to use a Round A to dump a major albatross like the Davis contract.    

I'd be all for trading a Round A comp balance pick if it helped off-load Davis or Trumbo.

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3 minutes ago, Frobby said:

On the one hand, the two times he traded the competitive balance pick, it was a Round B pick (between 2nd and 3rd rounds).   The Round A pick we have this time is a much more precious commodity.    

On the other hand, if he'd use the Round B picks for dumping minor contracts like Matusz's and Webb's, it's hard to believe he'd be reluctant to use a Round A to dump a major albatross like the Davis contract.    

Or he could bundle it with Trumbo and get more than a warm body back.

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Just now, phillyOs119 said:

I'd be all for trading a Round A comp balance pick if it helped off-load Davis or Trumbo.

Davis yes, Trumbo no.  I mean I'd be tempted since it would allow the O's to move Mancini to DH and have say Stewart in left field.  I think a Stewart/Jones/Hays outfield could be pretty decent.

But ultimately a first round pick is too high a price.

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1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

Davis yes, Trumbo no.  I mean I'd be tempted since it would allow the O's to move Mancini to DH and have say Stewart in left field.  I think a Stewart/Jones/Hays outfield could be pretty decent.

But ultimately a first round pick is too high a price.

Trumbo is more realistic though, I can't imagine anyone taking on the Davis contract even if the O's could trade their #11 overall pick AND a round A comp pick.

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6 minutes ago, phillyOs119 said:

Trumbo is more realistic though, I can't imagine anyone taking on the Davis contract even if the O's could trade their #11 overall pick AND a round A comp pick.

I can imagine it.  Two first round picks?  A team with a need at first base or DH that has payroll room. 

I can see it.

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10 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I can imagine it.  Two first round picks?  A team with a need at first base or DH that has payroll room. 

I can see it.

It's just his swing is such a mess, it's easy to see him being a 0 WAR player $115m player over the life of the contract.  Two first round picks have a lot of value, but not $115 million.  A #11 and a sandwich pick are worth 50-60 million at most.

Edit: I know, some of the money is getting paid later, so the present value of the deal is lower.  I just didn't feel like coming up with a discount rate to calculate present value with.

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17 minutes ago, phillyOs119 said:

It's just his swing is such a mess, it's easy to see him being a 0 WAR player $115m player over the life of the contract.  Two first round picks have a lot of value, but not $115 million.  A #11 and a sandwich pick are worth 50-60 million at most.

Edit: I know, some of the money is getting paid later, so the present value of the deal is lower.  I just didn't feel like coming up with a discount rate to calculate present value with.

But he's also not far removed from being a 3 win player.

If you can get him back to even the 2016 level it will make the contract a lot more palatable.

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2 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

But he's also not far removed from being a 3 win player.

If you can get him back to even the 2016 level it will make the contract a lot more palatable.

I agree, but teams don't acquire players with that size contact on a hope and a prayer that they will be better going forward.  He's lost speed, he has trouble hitting velocity, and his defense has declined.  He is only getting older.

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