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Offseason Trade Ideas thread


Luke-OH

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With the lack of Orioles-related news this time of year one can go a little stir crazy.  So I was thinking of some possible trades the Orioles could make to improve themselves.

Here are the rules of this thought experiment:

1. We are working on the assumption of a 2018 team that's trying to compete (I think they need to rebuild, but that doesn't sound like it's in the cards).

2. Trades must be at least reasonably fair (no one can know for sure exactly how teams value their players, but let's try to stay plausible) and the team the O's are trading with need to get something they might actually want (prospects to rebuilding teams, MLB ready upgrades to teams trying to compete, salary relief to teams trying to cut salary).

3. You need to at least try and breakdown why the trade fits rules 1 and 2.

 

With that introduction, here is my trade idea.

Orioles get Dan Straily + Martin Prado --- Marlins get Joey Rickard + Matthias Dietz 

Why it works:

The Marlins are looking to cut their payroll to 90 million, that is about a 25 million cut from opening day 2017.  Martin Prado is making the following amounts 18:$13.5M, 19:$15M and is coming off a lost season.  He wouldn't get anywhere near 2 years 28.5 million on the open market, I'd say he has somewhere around 14 million in negative value.  Dan Straily is projected to make 4.6 million through arbitration and is controlled through 2020.  If you project him as a 1.8ish WAR player going forward, and fairly normal arbitration raises of maybe 4.6, 7.4, 11, then you have a surplus value of about 20 million.  So overall, the Marlins are trading about 6 million worth of surplus value.

Joey Rickard is controlled through 2022 and is making league minimum next season.  He doesn't have a ton of value but his defensive ability and cheap controllable nature is probably worth something to a team trying to reduce payroll.  Matthias Dietz is a big framed pitcher who can get it up into the upper 90's at times but can't do much else as of right now.  He's probably a grade 40 prospect, Fangraphs estimated that a grade 45 pitching prospect is worth about 13 million in surplus value on average (some obviously much more, plenty worth zero as well), so I think he'd be valued close enough to the 6 million of surplus the Marlins are giving up to make it work with the Rickard throw-in.

Marlins get about 18 million in salary reduction, a cheap 4th outfielder, and a backend rotation or relief prospect.

Orioles get an upgrade at Utility IF and a league average-ish starter for the next three years without losing anyone who really hurts them.

 

Feel free to critique and post any of your own well-thought out ideas.  I'd prefer to keep this thread free of just throwing out names.

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A utility infielder that can't play SS is basically useless to the O's.  The is very little playing time for such a player.   Pardo can play LF but with Mancini out there again there isn't much playing time.  And the O's still would need a backup SS.

I understand you are trying to take on salary to get a starter but I hope there are better trades to be made.

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2 hours ago, phillyOs119 said:

With the lack of Orioles-related news this time of year one can go a little stir crazy.  So I was thinking of some possible trades the Orioles could make to improve themselves.

Here are the rules of this thought experiment:

1. We are working on the assumption of a 2018 team that's trying to compete (I think they need to rebuild, but that doesn't sound like it's in the cards).

2. Trades must be at least reasonably fair (no one can know for sure exactly how teams value their players, but let's try to stay plausible) and the team the O's are trading with need to get something they might actually want (prospects to rebuilding teams, MLB ready upgrades to teams trying to compete, salary relief to teams trying to cut salary).

3. You need to at least try and breakdown why the trade fits rules 1 and 2.

 

With that introduction, here is my trade idea.

Orioles get Dan Straily + Martin Prado --- Marlins get Joey Rickard + Matthias Dietz 

Why it works:

The Marlins are looking to cut their payroll to 90 million, that is about a 25 million cut from opening day 2017.  Martin Prado is making the following amounts 18:$13.5M, 19:$15M and is coming off a lost season.  He wouldn't get anywhere near 2 years 28.5 million on the open market, I'd say he has somewhere around 14 million in negative value.  Dan Straily is projected to make 4.6 million through arbitration and is controlled through 2020.  If you project him as a 1.8ish WAR player going forward, and fairly normal arbitration raises of maybe 4.6, 7.4, 11, then you have a surplus value of about 20 million.  So overall, the Marlins are trading about 6 million worth of surplus value.

Joey Rickard is controlled through 2022 and is making league minimum next season.  He doesn't have a ton of value but his defensive ability and cheap controllable nature is probably worth something to a team trying to reduce payroll.  Matthias Dietz is a big framed pitcher who can get it up into the upper 90's at times but can't do much else as of right now.  He's probably a grade 40 prospect, Fangraphs estimated that a grade 45 pitching prospect is worth about 13 million in surplus value on average (some obviously much more, plenty worth zero as well), so I think he'd be valued close enough to the 6 million of surplus the Marlins are giving up to make it work with the Rickard throw-in.

Marlins get about 18 million in salary reduction, a cheap 4th outfielder, and a backend rotation or relief prospect.

Orioles get an upgrade at Utility IF and a league average-ish starter for the next three years without losing anyone who really hurts them.

 

Feel free to critique and post any of your own well-thought out ideas.  I'd prefer to keep this thread free of just throwing out names.

I don't think the Orioles are a team that can afford a 13.5 per year utility IF. 

You have no where to play Prado everyday and the DH hole is likely clogged up with Trumbo.

If Buck had his choice he could probably keep Flaherty but I believe his salary is the reason not to keep him.

I like the Staily idea but he walks a lot of guys. Would his era inflate in the AL East.

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15 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

I don't think the Orioles are a team that can afford a 13.5 per year utility IF. 

You have no where to play Prado everyday and the DH hole is likely clogged up with Trumbo.

If Buck had his choice he could probably keep Flaherty but I believe his salary is the reason not to keep him.

I like the Staily idea but he walks a lot of guys. Would his era inflate in the AL East.

Valid points, taking on Prado's salary is mostly too lower the prospect cost of Straily.  If a trade seems perfect for the Orioles, it's probably not a fair trade.

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21 minutes ago, oriole said:

Chris Davis for David Price

This is an interesting idea if you think Price will stay healthy. 

A couple of things ...Price has an opt out after 2018. If he pitches the full season healthy like Price can he had a slight chance of getting out. But do you really think anyone is giving him more than 30 million per? So I don't see him opting out.

Next he only pitched half a season but his mid three era means that he was at least productive when he did pitch.

why do you think the Red Sox would do this deal?

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27 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

This is an interesting idea if you think Price will stay healthy. 

A couple of things ...Price has an opt out after 2018. If he pitches the full season healthy like Price can he had a slight chance of getting out. But do you really think anyone is giving him more than 30 million per? So I don't see him opting out.

Next he only pitched half a season but his mid three era means that he was at least productive when he did pitch.

why do you think the Red Sox would do this deal?

They wouldn't. 

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59 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

This is an interesting idea if you think Price will stay healthy. 

A couple of things ...Price has an opt out after 2018. If he pitches the full season healthy like Price can he had a slight chance of getting out. But do you really think anyone is giving him more than 30 million per? So I don't see him opting out.

Next he only pitched half a season but his mid three era means that he was at least productive when he did pitch.

why do you think the Red Sox would do this deal?

I don't necessarily think they would to be honest, but it makes a little sense if you consider Price has been a distraction with the Boston media, he was injured last year, and his first year there was just okay, not great. Plus he is getting paid a lot more than Davis and Boston is losing their first baseman to FA. I didn't think it was that much different of a scenario to suggest than the OP as far as how likely it seems.

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6 hours ago, phillyOs119 said:

Orioles get Dan Straily + Martin Prado --- Marlins get Joey Rickard + Matthias Dietz 

Why it works:

The Marlins are looking to cut their payroll to 90 million, that is about a 25 million cut from opening day 2017.  Martin Prado is making the following amounts 18:$13.5M, 19:$15M and is coming off a lost season.  He wouldn't get anywhere near 2 years 28.5 million on the open market, I'd say he has somewhere around 14 million in negative value.  Dan Straily is projected to make 4.6 million through arbitration and is controlled through 2020.  If you project him as a 1.8ish WAR player going forward, and fairly normal arbitration raises of maybe 4.6, 7.4, 11

So basically this would be like us signing Straily for 3/51. He's not worth that much imo but it's an interesting idea. Miami would need to eat some salary. Also don't like the idea of Prado wasting a roster spot. Straily faded pretty badly down the stretch this season (5.51 era post all star break).

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I'm actually not completely opposed to the idea, but not as the first option. I think there are better ways to address the SP issue, but I also don't think Prado is a useless player. This year was a wash, but he's been a slightly above average offensive produced before 207 with a .340 career OBP. That's something this team could sorely use. He's a professional hitter and overall solid player. While it's true that he wouldn't be able to spell SS with any regularity (he could probably come in due to an injury in a pinch), he can cover 2B and 3B as well as LF. While he hasn't had much playing time in RF, he could likely play there, too. I've also read some discussion on whether Mancini is a better fit in LF or RF. Depending on that, Prado could be a nice back up option if Hays or Santander cannot take the other OF spot out of spring training.

A bench of Joseph, Prado, Santander and someone like Eric Sogard would be solid if Hays can stick. Hays can slide over to CF to give Jones days off with Prado getting some at bats that way as well as spelling Hays, Mancini, Machado, Schoop and Trumbo from time to time (Davis, too, with Mancini or Trumbo going in at 1B).

I do think the price tag is a bit stiff in terms of $$$. But if you add Straily and Prado then sign someone like Eric Sogard and Alex Cobb, you would be in pretty good shape (although I'd still like more SP depth and you'd still be lacking an extra LHH OF bat).

I think this deal would be workable, but I'm not sure it's the top of the list in terms options.

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10 minutes ago, jamalshw said:

I'm actually not completely opposed to the idea, but not as the first option. I think there are better ways to address the SP issue, but I also don't think Prado is a useless player. This year was a wash, but he's been a slightly above average offensive produced before 207 with a .340 career OBP. That's something this team could sorely use. He's a professional hitter and overall solid player. While it's true that he wouldn't be able to spell SS with any regularity (he could probably come in due to an injury in a pinch), he can cover 2B and 3B as well as LF. While he hasn't had much playing time in RF, he could likely play there, too. I've also read some discussion on whether Mancini is a better fit in LF or RF. Depending on that, Prado could be a nice back up option if Hays or Santander cannot take the other OF spot out of spring training.

A bench of Joseph, Prado, Santander and someone like Eric Sogard would be solid if Hays can stick. Hays can slide over to CF to give Jones days off with Prado getting some at bats that way as well as spelling Hays, Mancini, Machado, Schoop and Trumbo from time to time (Davis, too, with Mancini or Trumbo going in at 1B).

I do think the price tag is a bit stiff in terms of $$$. But if you add Straily and Prado then sign someone like Eric Sogard and Alex Cobb, you would be in pretty good shape (although I'd still like more SP depth and you'd still be lacking an extra LHH OF bat).

I think this deal would be workable, but I'm not sure it's the top of the list in terms options.

I appreciate the thoughtful response.  Of course I can think of much more favorable trades for the Orioles, but my main goal here was to come up with a trade the would help the team and would be a trade the other team would actually consider unlike Price for Davis and other pipe dreams.

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Anyone have any britton or brach to the cardinals trade suggestions? Seems like there might  be some potential there...

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/st-louis-cardinals

Article excerpt - 

Quote

Zach Britton might also be a one-year bounceback target, though he could be in line for a $12.2MM payday and had some fairly worrying health and performance issues in 2017. Plus, the O’s presently insist they aren’t interested in dealing him. There’s still time for that stance to change, however, and the Cards would be one of many teams that could dream on a revived Britton. Teammate Brad Brach is also a quality late-inning arm and is set to earn just $5.2MM, though as with Britton it remains unclear whether he’ll truly be available at any kind of reasonable price.

 

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